If you had in mind that 1.4353 break level…then it was a good choice to sell 
I went short at 1.4352 and just closed the trade at 1.4280
I think it will fall further but I expect a bit of a rebound here…
Hi yunny1
All of a sudden closing my trade doesn’t seem like such a bad decision. Price as I write is back up above my original entry , and similar to yesterday, may present the opportunity to get back in at a better price for me if it looks as though this is indeed a bounce and further falls are posible.
Will be watching closely if price gets back up around that 1-4353 level for re-test
HoG
yunny1
Just a quick question regards charts above. Is there any specific reason you have your RSI at 18 ? It’s just that my platform default number for RSI is 14. Wondered if it was just a personal preference. Thanks.
HoG
Is a personal preference… i have the RSI to signal OB/OS so I can start to look for PA formations… with RSI at 18 periods I decrease false signals
Have to take these opportunities when they present themselves. Rarer than good trade setups lol!
No criticism from me - this was an opportunist trade, outside of the rules that apply to your regular strategy. Regardless of whether others would have placed it, under such circumstances I think that you are quite right to take the pips once you have a decent number on the table. Quick in, quick out, thanks for the pips!
And you are quite right, there will always be another opportunity, so preserving account balance as you go along is a key component of sustained success.
And thankss again for the multi-quoting tutorial - by jove, I think I have cracked it!
ST
I wanted to start a thread or a survey on how many pips do traders take per trade. I mean its never going to be fixed value, but how many pips before we even decide that you know what, x pips in my account is decent enough. I just havent thought of how to put it on the forum.
50 pips to me is a number I am more than happy to cut off with in an instant. I take 30 when I enter on non ideal conditions. I have even cut off with 5 or 10.
The thing is no one can take the maximum given per trade.
The idea is to consistently take.
HoG,
I was reading this book “Beat the Forex Dealer” and found something to share about Moving Averages…
[I]“Moving averages are one of the oldest tried-and-true indicators, but since they are
lagging indicators to the short term trader they seem to be of little use. As with all
price-driven indicators there are trade-offs, and one has to look at the MA itself to
find good uses for such a tool.
The most widely looked at MAs are the 50, 100, and 200 day MA which are a
simple, yet efficient ways to gauge trends, their strengths (measured as a % away for the MA), and reasonable support levels, All day-traders should know where
these levels sit on the daily charts, because as widely followed indicators they
attract stop hunters and should therefore be avoided.
Since moving averages essentially relate the past price action, they can also be
used effectively intra-day for entering and exiting positions in one-way markets. During sharp moves, it can be difficult for a trade r to properly enter a position since retracements are far and few. and the “it can’t go higher/lower” mentality
may set in .”[/I]
They work great if used as possible support and resistance areas.
trading breaks and bounces off these lines are very profitable.
Blokey film, meat pizza, all you need now is a night out with “The Lads” and you’re living the dream all over again ST. LOL !!
And women may well be better at multi tasking than us, but can they multi quote ?? Y’see, us guys ain’t too bad after all.
Enjoy your weekend SimonTemplar.
HoG
To be 100% honest with you Nikita, I don’t have a fixed target of pips in mind. I set a TP on my trades, and if PA looks stong in my favour, I try my best to let it run. But if it starts to look a bit shaky, I’ll shut it down.
Personally, I believe it could all depend on your personal circumstances and/or your account balance.
If I was wealthy and playing FX for fun, I’d probably let my trades run longer than I would if my account survival depended on it. ( which incidentally, mine does as you all know )
I shut a trade down yesterday for just over +50 pips. Even though I believed at the time price had further to fall ( which it didn’t ) the $5 profit equates to over 13% of my account balance. So I took it. But I also shut a trade down last night for only +8 pips because price was bobbing around and I was starting to lose confidence, even though I tried to remind myself the basic reasons I opened the trade in the first place were still fundamentally good.
But I think the most important thing is to know when you SHOULD shut a trade down. One problem I’ve faced in the past is hanging on to a winning position too long. I know that sounds strange but I’ll explain. As I said above, I shut a trade down yesterday for just over +50 pips. That profit took my account balance over the $90 barrier for me. Which was another psychological milestone as my account balance hasn’t been over $90 since it was on the way down.
However I still believed as I was shutting it down that price would fall further. But it didn’t matter to me, I wanted to protect my $90 so I closed it. But it would have been very easy to let a little bit of greed creep in and try to let it run for more profit. And it was just as well I didn’t. Because shortly after I closed , price turned around and within 10 minutes was back above my initial entry point. And that actually happened to me twice this week. Luckily I had shut my trades down on both occassions.
Had I let it run and price had turn around, I may have sat watching it rise, hoping it would fall again, only to see my profit disappear.
I’ve taken 1 pip and the highest I’ve ever made was 246 ish. But as I have told you all before I am a cab driver in Glasgow. I go out to work each morning with a set money target I want to earn before I come home. And I think if I ever get to the point where I am trading for a living with a standard size account, and any trade is making more than I would have made for a days taxi wages, I’ll happily shut it down with no regrets.
I actually look at my account now as having support and resistance levels. $100 is my new “target”. $90 is my new support. I’ll place my next trade and risk only as many pips as would take me back to $90. I’ll take ANY decent profit ( 10 pips or above depending on how strong price movement is ) that edges me up closer to $100. And when I get close to $100, I’ll close ANY trade that breaks me through that barrier. And then I’ll pick a new target, and a new support, and work it the same
Maybe you should start a thread or a survey and just simply ask, “How Much Is Enough?”
When I first started I got too wrapped up in reading all the garbage wrote by so called “Experts” about how you must do this and must do that. I’m now of the opinion that it’s all nonsense. Newbies need to learn a very simple lesson, but admittedly, it’s a difficult lesson to accept :
If you have a decent profit on the table, just bag it. It doesn’t matter what price does AFTER you’ve closed. Don’t waste any tears on that. Just bag the pips while you can.
But as was discussed way at the start of this thread, battling that newbie greed is all part of learning to deal with the psychology of trading. There’s no way I would say I have mastered the psychology. But I’m definitely better than I was.
Hope this gave you some kind of answer, I know I rambled on a bit but what can I say, typical taxi driver !! Once you get us started. There’s actually a taxi in Glasgow that has a sign inside that reads ;
“Isn’t it a pity that all the people who know how to fix the world’s problems are too busy driving a taxi in Glasgow.”
And with that, I bid you goodnight Nikita.
HoG
yunny1
I actually printed off the article ( SMA v’s EMA ) you put the link up for in #261. I have found that to be a very good web-site education wise and I’m now using it along with continuing to read through the school of pipsology. My problem with moving averages was simply that I didn’t know how to use them. Still don’t really, but I’m reading and learning.
One question I did have regarding the chart you posted earlier was about the candlestick that had bounced off the moving average. I noticed that it was a bullish candlestick and that gave a bullish signal. But what if it had been a bearish candlestick? Would that have made any difference?
Another question I’d like to ask is about stop losses. I’m sure experienced traders have discussed this a million times before but it did make me think the other night.
We’re all agreed on the importance of setting your stop loss. Mainly because psychologically it is easier to fix your exit point BEFORE you get into a trade than it is when you’re actually in it and losing money. But if we all have our stops fixed for the brokers to plainly see, aren’t we just leaving ourselves wide open to be wiped out at the will of a broker? Or is it not that simple?
One last question I’d like to ask is this. I’ve now doubled the low point of my account by using only 5 different moving averages, MACD, Slow Stochastics and drawing support and resistance lines. Nothing too complicated I’m sure you’ll all agree. But the point is, forgetting the actually monetary amount, I’ve doulbed my account.
Is it therefore within the realms of possiblity to make a career of trading using only these simple tools? Or does there come a time when you need to become more complicated?
Anyway yunny1, thanks for the moving averages piece. Like I said, I’m reading and learning.
HoG
One question I did have regarding the chart you posted earlier was about the candlestick that had bounced off the moving average. I noticed that it was a bullish candlestick and that gave a bullish signal. But what if it had been a bearish candlestick? Would that have made any difference?
Of course, because a bearish candle would have told me in that area sellers overcame buyers…
There are some good books about Japanese Candlesticks and price action…
Here is one
Steve Nison and Stephen Bigalow have some others good books about the subject…
Another question I’d like to ask is about stop losses. I’m sure experienced traders have discussed this a million times before but it did make me think the other night.
We’re all agreed on the importance of setting your stop loss. Mainly because psychologically it is easier to fix your exit point BEFORE you get into a trade than it is when you’re actually in it and losing money. But if we all have our stops fixed for the brokers to plainly see, aren’t we just leaving ourselves wide open to be wiped out at the will of a broker? Or is it not that simple?
Well, that is why you should be careful to pick out a good broker, and you just have to give some room to your trade…a tight SL is candy for some bucket shops…
One last question I’d like to ask is this. I’ve now doubled the low point of my account by using only 5 different moving averages, MACD, Slow Stochastics and drawing support and resistance lines. Nothing too complicated I’m sure you’ll all agree. But the point is, forgetting the actually monetary amount, I’ve doulbed my account.
Is it therefore within the realms of possiblity to make a career of trading using only these simple tools? Or does there come a time when you need to become more complicated?
Anyway yunny1, thanks for the moving averages piece. Like I said, I’m reading and learning.
HoG
Once I read that some successful traders used only PA, S/R and 200 MA… nothing else
Sure you make more money if you know something about Forex Greeks
But I am also sure that the ladies in the next two links, don’t complicate their trading too much
Housewives Outmaneuver UBS, Deutsche Bank Trading Yen (Update4) - Bloomberg
Japan’s hedge fund housewives | Video | Reuters.com
yunny1
Thanks again for the candlestick book and the links to the other articles.
The link to the Greeks has made me wonder if it is necessary to learn about ALL types of investing to be successful in Forex. I’m the first to admit I don’t have a clue about options, Greeks, bonds etc. The thought of having to learn it all is a bit overwhelming. But if it has to be done to eventually have an eye on being a successful full time trader, then I guess it just has to be done. But where to start with all of that ??
Anyway, sold Euro Dollar this morning at 1-4354 and then sat and watched throughout the day as price climbed to low 1-44’s. Probably the biggest mistake of the trade was making it 20 minutes before London opened. However I believed at the time the 1 Hour was showing a reasonable chance of a down move so I took it. Also I think a little bit of impatience crept in.
I’ve done reasonably well over the last week / 10 days by tading 10 cent lots. Maybe I was just trying to push things along too quickly to get to bigger things. Funny how you always have to be on your guard from the enemy from within !!
As the day, and the night, has wore on price has come back to me and as I write I am only - 4 pips just now. Price has struggled with the former support / resistance level of around 1-4353 and I am tempted just to close the trade and accept the - 4 pips.
However Daily and 4 Hour are still showing some bearish signals and I know Euro Dollar is a tough playgroung to be in right now but I’m hoping if it can break below 1-4350 I’ll take something out of it.
It might just be time to widen my horizons a bit and start looking at another pair.
as usual I’ll bore you all to death by letting you know how I get on.
HoG
I don’t think you should Know about all that stuff to be sucessful… if you are good at spot trading then will be enough in most of the cases…
I also think price could go down a bit more…
If it makes you feel better, I don’t know anything about the other forms of investment you listed. I have never traded anything other than Forex, I don’t come from a financial/investment background (civil servant turned property developer prior to discovering Forex) and don’t know anything about futures etc.
I am not the most experienced on here (only in my second year trading) but this is my principal career, these days, and I made a decent profit over the past twelve months’ trading. So that cicumstantial evidence suggests that it can be done without a wider knowledge of investments.
My take on EUR, for what it is worth, is that we have been ranging between c.1.4500 and c.1.4050 for the past few weeks, I just outlined my reasons for thinking that on ICT’s ‘What Ever New And Aspiring etc.’ thread, if you fancy some help with your insomnia lol. My basic point is that given the current choppy Daily chart for EUR, I am only trading reversals at the extremities of that range until it breaks.
ST
Ok all, so still in the same Euro Dollar trade ( sold at 1-4354 ) as I have been all week. I know some of you mauy find that surprising when you consider the range Euro Dollar has travelled in since the start of the week, but that brings me nicely to the cardinal sins I have committed with this trade.
I’m still looking at the charts, still thinking price wants to go down. My original stop was 1-4450 from which I would have lost $10. But as price neared that yesterday I moved my stop to above recent daily highs ( !-4540 ) to keep myself in.
I know, before you all get the large flogging whip out of the cupboard, that you should never move your stop. The only semblence of an excuse I can come up with is that I am still convinced price wants to come down.
Sort of worked to my benefit a little as I am only 60 pips down ( $6 ) right now.
SimonTemplar
I have started to reaqd the ICT thread since you mentioned it above. Looks like interesting stuff. And thanks for the reassurance on not needing to know all kinds of different trading to yourself and yunny1
Anyway, waitng for the 40 lashes, talk to you all soon.
HoG
At least that puts your Stop outside the current range, from which point I am inclined to agree with you that there is a moderate chance of Price falling in your favour. Price has previously found Support around the Monthly Pivot, which at 1.4269 would see you in profit.
My hesitation about moving your Stop once already in a trade stems from the thought that presumably this has increased your risk a fair bit beyond your regular level, which means that you are a little overloaded on this trade, which over the long term is a risky path to tread… but no lashes! I just personally would rather take the odd loss but limit my risk to a steady, containably amount (1% in my case), rather than alter my risk on a case-by-case basis and risk throwing out the results of my strategy over the long haul. If you ever take a trade that you regret, moving your Stop to protect an unsound position simply doubles the transgression, after all… and you are relying too heavily on luck to see you safely through. If I ever enter and then realize that this was unwise (either as I entered through an error in my analysis, or the picture has changed since Entry), I just close at a small loss and move on. Always trade the rules, after all they are your rules, so you must like them!!!
Just my thoughts, as I said you have a moderate chance of getting away with it on this occasion!!
ST
ST
To be honest with you there is a whole catalogue of things I am not happy with concerning this trade. Not the least of which is the fact I am in it at all. On the plus side I still believe I got into it for the right reason, it’s just what has happened since that is annoying.
First of all I committed too much of my balance to it, then to stay in it I moved my stop, which as you quite rightly pointed out, only committed me deeper.
However one of the most frustrating things about it is the fact that I AM in it has excluded me from a couple of nice range
trades which I did spot the chance of ( 3 moves up and over 1-4450 ).
In the long run, whatever the outcome, I’ll still look back at this trade as having cost me even if it does now break even or make a profit.
Price did go back to within 2 pips of my entry on Monday and I should have just closed it then, but I hung on for the psychological 1 pip victory and here is where i am.
However, and I know this may sound strange, I still believe I got in for the right reason and a couple of times I’ve looked at the charts and thought, " Yep, just stay in.". But the more it drags on the more I want it to finish. This is not my comfortable timeframe for any trade. I prefer to be in and done on the same trading day.
But for now I’ll just watch. Jackson hole prospect does worry me so hoping for an end soon. If it gets to an acceptable loss level without having a clear end in sight I may be tempted to close and get on with life.
HoG
Stops. Never change em to increase risk! Sometimes I change em, but just to decrease risk. If I see no sense anymore to wait for the stop get hit I put it closer to the pa or close my trade with a loss.
If your stop is hit, you can always enter later on again at the stops price level. What you miss then is the risk what you in first instance did not want (that’s why you set the stop).
If you set a stop and change it, it is a little like no stop at all. No risk control. Never do that!
I had a big loss today, because my stop was hit and price reversed. Too bad, but I feel okay, because I followed my plan and system. If I can not trust my system, what can I trust then? The system is the singular thing which you have to trust in most. If that’s not given, forget trading. I know in the end there is a high probability to come out in profit. Those trades when the stop is hit and price reverses happen to every disciplined and successful trader. That’s just part of the game. Don’t change your rules based on one single trade! Because most of the time it will NOT reverse and you stop saves your account.
It’s like trusting in a car. If I climb in my car then I have trust that I reach my destination. I may have to drive around closed streets for the reason of an event or I may face sometimes an issue with the engine, but I trust my car, because I have nothing better. Start running instead for example might give me the quick temporary feeling I could reach the destination without my car, but sooner than later I’d run out of energy and it’s simply not possible (if the destination is far enough away) to beat my car with my legs.
Murphys law: What can go wrong WILL go wrong and it WILL go wrong in the most harmful way. HoG, you are simply trading on hope now. The hope, it goes not higher. Why not take the loss while price is where you first stop setting was? Price made not what you expected in the first instance and it proofed you wrong. No problem with that, because nobody can know where price is going.
Frankly, on the daily is see higher highs since a couple of days. Looks like a bull wedge. That’s good for a nice trendline below. I won’t say it must go higher, but there is a good probability it will go to 146 around before turning. Or even higher. If price closes above 14535 around it is the ticket to higher prices and will probably go up quick.
Oh, well my free acount is now decreasing as well, lol. I am around 65 now. The issue is I am overleveraged as hell, as I can only trade mini lots. Well, 2 more shots and then it’s over. Or if I have luck I get it back to around 100. We’ll see. Could take some time.
we are in range trading with a bit bias to the upside… HoG, you can wait to a swing lower in that range to close your trade with a smaller loss…[B]BUT ONLY IF[/B] you are not confortable with your trade and think that there is a high risk of the price moving to the wrong side…
But as buckscoder said the best thing is to trust your system…