Beginner's Disaster!

The tools are there, you don’t have to design anything just to learn how to use them… when I say trading is easy, does NOT mean you shouldn’t do your homework… but when you reach a winning trading mindset is really simple…

Of course this doesn’t happen every day but i will show you my trade for today…

We knew Jackson Hole will provide nice volatility to the market…

first was to prepare the trade…

drawing previous meaningful supports and resistances, here in the image is support at 1.4328

Usually at trading the news you just “ignore” the first move… but start to look for reversal patterns at S/R levels…

I went down to the 5M chart because the high volatility but the trade could have been taken in the 10M or 15M chart

This was especial since i like to trade off the 1H chart…

Look at the beauty of the trade and the power of Price Action :slight_smile:

first step… wait for a reversal candle pattern to close… near support area

second step… placing the long trade

third step… manage the trade (moving SL after the price went to my side)

pips risked: 27
pips taken: 103
duration time: 1 hour

I took this trade using proper MM, according to my rules… :slight_smile:

HoG, by your posts i can see you are a very analytical person you just need a bit more of screen time with the right tools and control your emotions…

I hope my trades don’t confuse you but help your trading…

Nice call, yunni. I missed that unfortunately, because I was busy with some other things.

Anyways, I got 3 pips around today and in my overleveraged free account that is now a couple of percent up in balance today. So, there is still hope I can grow that account to 1 million bucks now. :56:

You See now this is exactly the sort of post newbies everywhere are searching for. Some-one who is willing to show how they actually carried out a trade by using charts to explain it. I think that is so good. Thank you yunny1.

When I first started looking into FX all I ever seemed to find was page after page of jargon I just didn’t understand. I am a visual person. By which I mean I learn best by seeing, not reading. Had I found a site that would show me how trades were carried out by using recent charts and examples, it would have been my first stop every time I turned my computer on.

Great post. Thanks again

HoG

I so hope you do. Then you can pay for a weekend in vegas for the regulars on this thread LOL!! :18:

As a matter of fact, let’s make that a deal, first one to a million bucks pays for the vegas weekend !!

HoG

Robust Feedback ! I love that. It’s a little like me and my wife. We don’t have arguments. We have open and candid exchanges regarding core priorities and beliefs.:30: Usually right after I tell her I’m golfing on Sunday !!

However poor your initial Entry, you were trading with the most likely market direction. Also, as you said, you have a day job, so are not around all the time, so missed a couple of opportunities to close the trade with a modest profit. Many other traders have made far worse mistakes, and been punished worse for them, myself included. More than once! So I just wanted to say hats off to you for doing this in public, as it were, and keeping us all updated with your thought process and emotions throughout.

Funny thing is ST, I STILL don’t believe my entry into this trade was a bad one. I looked at my charts, looked at my S/R and placed the trade because of that. Once I was IN the trade was the bad part and is when it all went pear shaped. My initial stop would have been hit if I had not moved it. Had the second stop been hit I would have lost almost 30% of my account purely on the hope price wouldn’t rise above a recent daily high. Which, as we all know, can easily happen.

It could be argued that price did eventually come back down in my favour, but had I been stopped out originally for 7 or 8% of my balance, and then taken the next 3 range moves, up to the high 1-44’s and over 1-45, which I honestly did see, I would have ended the week, assuming I made no other trades, over 100 pips up for the week. But I couldn’t take those trades because so much of my balance was tied up with that one trade. So that one trade effectively kept me out of the market for the entire week, except for taking 21 pips on Thursday from a tight stop trade.

But I still believe, as I say, the actual entry itself was ok, and I refuse to accept otherwise. I just made an arse of it afterwards, that’s all.

And as for doing it in public, well that’s sort of the reason for this thread in the first place. I originally started a blog to share the whole experience a beginner goes through, warts and all, because I know I’m not the only one out there going through it. But after I found this platform it just seemed like the natural place to share it all. It may bore some people and that’s fine. But others may just see their own concerns in here and stick around. Luckily I’ve had some good contributors, your good self included, to help it along.

This has been a great learning opportunity for many people now, yourself included. You put your hand up to it being a crappy trade, you took the criticism on the chin, and you do seem to have learned a lot from it, so overall for your future trading character I would say that it has been a positive experience. After all, if someone had offered, a month ago, to sell you the knowledge, personal insight and market feel you have gained for just 70 cents, you would have bitten their arm off!!

It HAS been a good learning curve. This one trade has taught me more than the victories that have brought me back up from $43 to $92. As for taking a bit of heckling, don’t worry about me ST, I’ve learned to deal with that in the toughest school of them all. You only need to be a cab driver in Glasgow for one weekend to learn you’d better grow a thick skin, and grow it bloody quickly if you’re going to survive;)

You said, yesterday, that you don’t have a system; you simply try to identify and trade Support and Resistance levels. Well, so do I, with a few other things thrown in. S&R can form the basis of a great system, so this whole period is invaluable to your trading career. Layer up the knowledge from that S&R foundation and you should find yourself in a very happy place at some point. Price Action and S&R are the basis of many successful traders’ approaches.

Again I think this is a mistake a lot of newcomers make, most definitely me included. There seems to be a perception that there “MUST” be more to it than this. Surely it HAS to be more complicated, the “EXPERTS” said so. So we go in search of all kinds of complicated nonsense and end up just confusing ourselves.

I must confess at the start of this thread I was rather dismissive of Demo accounts. I believe I may have said something like they teach you the nuts and bolts but nothing about the emotions. Well obviously you won’t feel the same emotion with pretend money as real money. But for testing strategies, support and resistance, testing if candlestick patterns really work they way they say they do, finding the best timeframe to work from, Demo accounts are FAR MORE important than I gave them credit for. They ARE your putting green, they ARE the driving range. That’s where you should iron out the mistakes, not on the live account. So for that I admit I was wrong, AGAIN !

And as for the happy place, I’ve now included you in the Vegas deal whether you like it or not. First one on this thread to a million takes the others to Vegas for the weekend !! I’m safe, I’ve got a long way to go :smiley:

One question, if I may, while I am rambling - how come you trade in USD while living in Scotland?

Nice work on your thread - keep doing what you are doing and learn from the odd backward step.

ST

When I first started reading about forex, one of the first things I read was that the Euro Dollar was the most traded pair in the world. Thus it had the most liquidity so had the most price action. Other pairs, the article noted, tended not to move as much, but could produce more violent moves when they did. So I guess that article more or less told me to trade Eur Dollar, which I still do mainly because I feel more comfortable with it.

Recently, you mat recall, I asked the question - Do you need to be familiar with a pair to trade them successfully or is all the information you need already there on the charts of ANY pair?

When I look at charts for other pairs, I never know if that is the price they normally sit around, or is it abnormally high or low. Now I realise I may well just have answered my own question by saying all you need to answer that is easily checked back on the charts. But I don’t know what it is, I just feel uncomfortable with other pairs.

I know I will need to get into other pairs, but I am unsure of correlating pairs. Which pair is the same as trading which pair? Which pair is the opposite of which pair? Any suggestions on good reading material on that subject would be appreciated.

Anyway, as usual, this has turned into another mega post so I’ll leave it there. The wife is brewing for one of those open and candid exchanges I spoke of earlier as she wants to take the laptop to bed to catch up with her pals on facebook so I’d better go.

It’s funny but I’ve enjoyed this week.( believe it or not ) Thanks to yunny1, Nikitafx, Buckscoder, SimonTemplar, akeakamai and all who have contributed this week. It’s been a journey for sure.

Be safe and happy this week everyone.

HoG;)

hello everyone,

I am rather new to Forex trading and after studying some of the technical analysis i find that one big problem i am facing is looking for the SL and TP points. i do not really have a clue where i should TP and SL and it would end up like gambling, either TP too early or not taking profits when it is high and ending up with a loss. And sometimes i would set SL too wide that it would roll over.

so do any one have any insights to how i can identify these points to reduce the risk of taking profit too early or too late?

Actually a good place to start is school of pipsology that you’ll find on the home page of this site. Go into that and find the section that deals with ‘support and resistance’.

Say, for talking sake, price of the Euro Dollar was sitting at 1-43. And looking back over a 1 hour chart ( or 4 hour or Daily ) you see that over the last couple of weeks or so, price had got down as low as 1-4250 on 3 or 4 occassions, but failed to go any lower, then it would be safe enough to assume that 1-4250 was a reasonably strong SUPPORT level. Then on the same chart you noticed that price had got as high as 1-4350 on 3 or 4 occassions but failed to go any higher, you could assume that level to be a reasonably strong RESISTANCE level.

So if you intended to go short, ( SELL ) your levels could possibly be;

Entry 1-43
TP 1-4255 ( ish )
Stop 1-4355 ( maximum )

You would place your stop, on this SELL trade, on or around a recent resistance, and place your take profit on or around a recent support.

On the flip side of that, if it was your intention to go long the pair ( BUY ) your levels could be;

Entry 1-43
TP 1-4345 ( ish )
Stop 1-4245 ( maximum )

This time you’ve placed your Take profit on or around a high ( resistance ) and your stop on or around a recent low ( support ).

People will tell you to use a 2:1 ratio, or a 3:1 ratio, meaning your aiming to make 2 or 3 times more than what you are risking. This is part of sound money management you hear so much about. and you’ll come to learn it is easier to do that if the price of a pair is getting closer to a recent support or resistance, rather than slap bang in the middle as in the example I wrote above.

Support and Resistance levels are NOT exact numbers. They are general areas where price gets to then turn back.

Also, your stop loss should be relative to the size of your account balance. Don’t go risking a massive 30% of your account balance on any one trade, like some crazy fool did on this thread just recently !! :58: I know your dying to pull the trigger and make big profits on every trade, we ALL are. We’ve all felt that. But when you’re learning take your time.

Work out what roughly 2 or 3% of your account balance is, and then work out what that number is when you convert it into pips, and if that number matches up with a support or resistance level on a trade o rthis risk involved, then it’s a fair enough risk to take.

Never feel bad about taking a profit if price then continues to move further in your direction after you’ve closed your trade early. Again, projected Take Profit levels don’t always get hit either and sometimes it’s just wiser to take what you have rather than hanging on for the big win, only to see price turn around and watch your profit dwindle. Take what you’ve got with a big smile on your face, and nevermind what price does next. There will ALWAYS be another trade, the Forex market isn’t going away any time soon !!

Anyway, that’s the ramblings of a fellow newbie, hope it made sense, I’ve only had one cup of coffee this morning and it usually takes me at least two before I can create anything even mildy coherent !!

Take care.

HoG

Hi Everbody

Started this week with a loss. -30 pips to be exact. Have to be honest and say I ain’t too bothered about it though. Thought it was a reasonable trade to go for. As I went to bed last night, Euro Dollar was hanging around the 1-4506 area.

With recent daily high being 1-4535 I decided to risk my 3% and sell since we were near the top of the recent range. No need to tell you all that price went up further than that overnight so I lost my 30 pips.

All is not a total disaster though as price as I write is around 1-4523. I bought back in at 1-4496 so sitting on + 27 pips right now. Moved my stop up to 1-4506 just to make sure I get something out of it and have my target at 1-4545.

Again have to be honest and say I’m tempted just to close it down and get back to were I started for the week but I’m relatively confident I’ll get my target so I’ll leave it and go to bed if need be. Locked +10 pips in anyway so not too bothered.

Been doing a lot of reading over the weekend about different types of indicators. I usually have a couple of moving averages running on my screen with pivot points and stochastics. Changing this method in my demo account now so that at the beginning all I have is the candlesticks. Read the candles, then apply the indicators purely for confirmation rather than trying to make the trades based on the indicators. We’ll see what happens.

Hope you all had a nice weekend.

HoG

Remember that indicators only tell limited information about price action… so they are the last thing to use for confirmation… I have on my charts only indicators that a lot of traders use :slight_smile:

Focus in price:

[I][/I][B]Price -> Order Flow -> Price Action -> Technical Indicators[/B]

Price is static until orders hit the market (order flow) and price starts moving (price action), with price action information you construct any technical indicator…

The “holy grail” would be to know beforehand the order flow, unfortunately that information is not available to us (retail traders), so we should focus on price action to determine areas where the buying/selling power is strong…

Most of the time [B]Price[/B] moves because of agressive market orders by the big institutions… with PA analysis we can ride those moves…:slight_smile:

If you can spot a good candlestick pattern around S/R levels there is a good probability to catch a strong move…

From $400 to $250 is not that bad.
Check out this dude here chaosfxtrader.blogspot.com
He went from $10.000 to $30.000 and then down to $2.500!!
It is an interesting trading log with mistakes that I have done quite a few times man. It reminds me my first few years with Forex.

I am also a visual person :smiley: … today I took a trade that I was expecting in the 8H chart…

a tweezer tops(double top) formed in a uptrend… I decided to split my usual position in two and take different entries…

The trade reached the first target at 1.4402 but then retraced…so I closed it at 1.4416

pips risked: 50
pips taken: 100

I think it will go lower but need to wait for a signal.

:slight_smile:

Just a quick question. If you went long Euro Dollar, and short Aussie USD at the same time, would those trades effectively cancel each other out ?

I suppose the obvious answer is yes since you’d be asking USD to go in two different directions, but I just wondered since the Aussie was more of a commodity currency.

HoG

Thx HOG for your response on my question.

I am currently studying price action movement and correlation in currency is one area that i am looking into, so i am still quite new to this but to answer your question Taken from babypips 'because both correlation is positive they move in the same direction, so opening a position long EUR/USD and short AUD/USD is then pointless and sometimes expensive. In addition to paying for the spread twice, and any movement in the price would take one pair up and the other down" so you may end up losing instead of it cancelling out one another since pips movement is very different in both currency, it also depends on the correlation value between both currency.

Generally yes. But not all the time.

Rule of thumb.

If you buying one USD pair,dont do the same on another.

If one goes against you the other most probably will, thus doubling your loss.

As it stands of today, EU and GU are moving on par with each other. AU and NZDUSD are moving together.

It works beautifully if you know how to use correlation.

Yesterday I sold GU and once that was done, I bought AU, later in the evening and that worked out beautiful also.

It would not have been the case earlier last month or somewhere along that time. EU GU and AU moved together, Kiwi kept shooting up.

So it changes.

Hi All

I know I’ve been pretty much anonymous this week but to be honest I haven’t really done much in the way of trading. Looked at 3 possible moves at the start of this week, Euro Dollar, Aussie Dollar, Dollar Cad.

Would you believe that, as I’ve mentioned before, Euro Dollar is usually the ONLY pair I trade, yet at the start of this week I decide to go long Dollar Cad, and then the short I looked at for the Euro Dollar moves over 250 pips !!

Went long Dollar Cad at 0-9788, Stop 0-9730 TP 0-9915.

Currently - 15 pips just now. Still happy enough with the trade just can’t believe my timing to start trying other pairs. Maybe the FX Gods are trying to tell me this ain’t for me.

Best of luck to all

HoG

Finally after the drop in oil prices the canadian dollar has decided to weaken. As I write my USD/CAD is + 40 pips at around 0-9823. Just casting a quick memory back to a question asked previously by Nikitafx; when do you think enough is enough and just bank the pips? , Well I’m very tempted just to take the + 40. However, I’ve got my TP at 0-9915 and all in all I DO believe it will get there.

Not entirely sure of the time scale involved though and I don’t believe I am the typre of trader who is comfortable running trades over the long term, certainly not comfortable running them over the weekend. So a bit of indecision here. Moved my stop up to breakeven now so at very least I won’t lose out of this one.

Just another stepping stone in the learning process I guess.

If I don’t talk again this week, have a good weekend to everyone. If I close the trade out before the end of tonight I’ll update the thread to say so.

HoG

Moved my stop up to 0-9810 and was stopped out for + 27 pips. Still a profit but slightly frustrated I didn’t just take it at + 40 pips. Still a profit but still down for the week. Acount sitting now exactly $90. Can’t see myself doing anything else at this late stage of the week.

Have a good weekend

HoG

Going into this week with my charts completely blank for the first time. No moving averages, no MACD, no stochastics, pivot points, nothing !!

All I will be working from is the candlesticks and I’ll be drawing support/resistance lines as I go. Because I have a micro account, my platform limits me to around 12 trading pairs. 2 of these pairs are gold and silver. I have no interest in trading them so I will be looking at all of the remaining 10 pairs I have. These pairs are;

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD
EUR/GBP GBP/JPY USD/CHF
EUR/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD NZD/USD
EUR/CHF

As I have mentioned before, so far I have mainly stuck to the Euro Dollar, with the exception of last week when I decided to try a different pair just as Euro Dollar made a huge shift. Great timing, what can I say.

Anyway, what’s this leading to you may ask. Well it’s leading to the question that has been asked before. Should you stick to a pair that you are familiar with ? OR, is all the information you need in the chart in front of you to allow you to trade a pair you are unfamiliar with?

I suppose this question is best answered in a demo account. So this week, as well as trying to trade purely from PA in my preferred pair ( EUR/USD ) I’ll be testing the question in my demo.

I’ll be using 4H charts to begin my analysis of any pair and only going as low as the 1H to decide on an entry.

Might take me a while to come up with the answer to this as due to my day job I find it difficult to trade during London New York sessions, but we’ll see how it goes.

I have read before in places that it is good to keep a journal of your trades. Reasons for taking it etc etc. I have decided, since I have mentioned previously that I am more of a visual person, to take a screen shot of any trades entered, with any support / resistance lines I’ve drawn, with an explanation of my reasons written underneath, then print this of and keep it in a file. Obviously I could print off another screen shot of the outcome or just simply write in pen what happened.

HoG

Welcome to the club.

Hi

[B][U]DEMO ACCOUNT[/U][/B]

Sold EUR/CHF last night based on chart pattern. Sold at 1-1170, had stop at 1-1225 and original TP at 1-1050.

Woke up this morning to find price stalled slightly at 1-11 ( + 70 pips ) so I closed. +70 is good enough I thought.

My demo account has a much bigger balance than my live account so I can afford wider stops. But pretty happy with this mornings result.

I would appreciate it if anyone can tell me how to upload a picture to this forum. Any time I try to do it with the ‘add image’ button it asks for the URL of an image and the only thing I can upload is a link to an image, not the image itself.

HoG