Actually is very difficult for a newbie to discard all those tools that look fancy… 
the best thing is to focus in Price Movement or PA…
my last two trades… 
Ok so I’ve tried my hardest to understand the enigma that is ‘photobucket’, and for some reason I just can’t seem to work out how to upload a picture from there to here.
Managed to take + 50 pips out of today. Would you believe I closed a long EU position literally seconds BEFORE the big spike ??? Refrained from diving back in as price jumped though as normally the way it works out is price spikes, I jump in, and immediately price reverses. So I deceided to let it be.
Previously, (and here’s another confession about something I got wrong) I stated that since I only have a micro account, my platform only allows me 12 different pairs to chose from to trade. Well, due to my terrible reading attention span, I discovered last night that you can only have 12 pairs DISPLAYED at any one time. NOT ‘you can only have 12 pairs full stop’.
This is quite interesting because one of the things it DOES give me ( doesn’t give me any other indexes, oil, gold or silver, but then I wouldn’t trade these anyway ) is the US Dollar index. I say this is quite interesting because it’s good for checking the EUR/USD against. As one goes up, the other falls.
Was tempted to short it today, ( honestly ) just before the big drop. But the problem with it is that they are asking for a 3 point spread @ $1 a pip. Now I know this doesn’t sound a lot to people with a large account, BUT, for me to open a trade, I would be immediately $3 down, which represents 30 pips of trading EUR/USD in a micro account.
And if I was making, or losing, 30 pips just now, I’d be tempted just to shut the whole lot down. So for now, the rewards could make a big difference to my account, but the risk could potentially destroy it. So I’ll give it a miss for now and use it as a guide only.
So anyway newbies, according to my Fib from the 4th May high to the 12th Sept low, we have crossed the 23.6% resistance of 1-3840, and are sitting halfway towards the 38.2% resistance of 1-4052. I know if you use different dates you’ll get differnt levels, but as is always said, we need to decide on our own analysis and this is mine.
So with the indexes all finishing up today, and the central banks saying they’ll all pitch in to help, I’m tempted to enter a long Euro Dollar for the Asian session, maybe risking 30 pips or so. But looking at my journal, it shows I’ve already done 7 trades this week, and am only sitting +3.8 pips just now. The one that really hurt was the 2 lot loss of 30 pips ( 60 pips ). A bad trade from start to finish made more out of greed than anything else, and a healthy smattering of over confidence as I had just taken my winning run to 8 trades in a row.
Then after losing that I lost another 16 pips on a revenge scalp.( don’t feel sorry for me, I deserve everything I get for that one, or should I say, everything I DIDN’T get ).It definitely seems to have been a long week already for just 3.8 pips !!
So I’m wondering just now is the desire to go long through the Asian session a decision made from clear thought, analysis and faith in the general sense of slightly improving market confidence?. Or is it more of just a gamble?
And then there is the question, “How far will the rally go?” Well, I know we live or die by our own decisions, maybe a sound nights sleep is the best decision.
HoG
PA was pointing down… so I think you took the right decision
Here was my trade today…lost 53 pips …unfortunately the decision from central banks to provide unlimited liquidity to european private banks created that reversal…
I was looking for at least 30 pips… carefully placed the trade after all news releases…
I was about to move my S/L to B/E when… boom …the reversal… can’t complain much this week since I had 6 consecutive winning trades…
Hi All
I thought I’d write this just now as I’ve probably finished trading for the week. As I’ve said before, I don’t normally get a chance to trade on a Friday because of work so more than likely I’m done.
So what a week it was. I started with balance of around $105 and as I write this I sit pennies under $115. I am particulary pleased with this as I started the week with a, get ready for this, 86 pip loss. Now there is a pathetic excuse related to this, or rather I should say, a pathetic MISTAKE connected to this. Would you believe I worked out my target and my stop and then FORGOT to actually enter them. When I next looked at the trade I was over 80 pips down.
So, regardless of my own stupidity, I have done well this week, even if I do pat myself on the back. And at the risk of sounding too smug and over confident, I am now within sight of another milestone. IF, and I do stress the word [B]IF[/B], I can manage to get to $129, that would be 3 times my balance low of $43. That would be a good acheivement but I’m in no hurry. Slow and steady gets me there.
Admittedly I’m still using a bigger risk % than I would like ( anywhere between 5 and 7 % at times ), but I’m getting closer to the point where I feel I CAN use a lower risk % and still give a trade a reasonable number of pips breathing space.
Although I said I probably won’t get to trade again this week I have left a short order near recent high at 1-3525 of EU, with a stop on a 38.2% retrace of a fib I’ve used at 1-3595 and a target back down at recent low of 1-3390. I’ll leave this in play overnight, review it in the morning if it hasn’t clicked in and then possibly leave it going throughout Friday. If it still hasn’t initiated by then I’ll take another look at it over the weekend to see if I still think it is possible.
If it doesn’t ever kick in then no worries, nothing lost.
Educatio material used this week has been the rather dubious download of Steve Nison’s candlestick DVD workshop and made a start looking through the ‘What Every Aspiring…’ thread.
Should maybe just add as a final point that I have made my profits this week using nothing except candlesticks and S&R levels. Makes you think eh??
Anyway, goodnight and good luck all.
HoG
Ummmm… That wasn’t a bearish engulfing;)
The high didn’t exceed the previous high.
This a bearish engulfing: 
Well… [B]it is a bearish engulfing pattern[/B]…
may be no enhanced by the fact you correctly mention…so it is a medium signal in my book…
Bearish Engulfing from Steve Nison (Japanese Candlesticks Charting Techniques):
There are three criteria for an engulfing pattern:
-
The market has to be in a clearly definable uptrend or downtrend, even if the trend is short term
-
Two candlesticks comprise the engulfing pattern. [B] The second real body must engulf the prior real body (it need NOT engulf the shadows). [/B]
-
The second real body of the engulfing pattern should be the opposite
color of the first real body.
Bearish Engulfing from Stephen Bigalow (High Profit Candlesticks Patterns):
The body of the second day completely engulfs the body of the first day. [B]Shadows are NOT a consideration[/B]
Just a quick couple of things to write although yunny1 has beat me to the 1st point. As I mentioned I have been watching the Steve Nison DVD workshop and according to him shadows DON’T need to be included in bearish / bullish engulfing patterns.
Also size of real bodies are a consideration, the bigger the second candle the better. However, it is not my intention to get involved in a disagreement with you guys as you’re way more experienced than me, I’m just adding what I saw on the DVD’s.
Second point is that my entry order from last night WAS initiated. Woke this morning to find myself +35 pips. I had drawn a little rising trend line on a 15 min chart and price has continued to follow it so I decided to close the trade for + 30 pips.
According to my Fib and another resitance line I’ve draw, I have a little resistance at around the 1-3545 area, which funnily enough price has just hit this second and bounced back down.
Also Asian session is just about into final 20 minutes and I feel sometimes they don’t like to carry trades on when markets are closed and they tend to close their positions so I’m wondering right now if it is worth taking another short EU at a higher price this time.
Trouble is though I can see EU going higher, maybe around the 1-36 area and as I’ll be at work I have no control over my trade.
I know that’s what stops and targets are for but I like to be able to react as it happens. I guess then that answers my own question, If in doubt, stay out !!
HoG
I’ll never argue with Mr. Nison. Read the book many times, and may have forgotten the finer points.
But I’ll never take an engulfing signal that doesn’t exceed outside the previous candle on both sides.
Outside bars, and inside bars are great things to look for. Especially when they are in line with previous S/R points, daily, or weekly opens or closes, and the like.
Morning HoG,
Sorry for not appearing on this thread much, recently - a bit of domestic chaos (builders in and my wife being away a fair bit) have ruined my rhythm somewhat so have been a bit sporadic. Hoping to be a bit more regular now, though.
I know you know this, and please don’t think me preachy, but I couldn’t let this one go without comment: I [I]really[/I] think that 5-7% is too much risk at this stage in your trading career (indeed, personally I think that 7% is too much for any trading career, but I know that others would disagree with that, and risk appetite is a personal thing). I completely understand you wanting to have sufficient to cover Stops etc., but my personal view is that this is an accident waiting to happen. You might get lucky and get away with it, but equally three bad trades in a row could really knock your account back, and that in turn will hurt your psychology etc. Even good trades stop out sometimes, so you could lose a good chunk of your gains just as one of those things, not having made a mistake - except that your mistake would have been to have too much risk riding on a single trade. So I would really urge you to keep your risk below 5% (it is 1% in my case!) and let things build steadily. Obviously completely up to you, but I figure you can never have too much good advice…!
I think that this throws up a very interesting aspect of trading that is often not given sufficient airtime, imho. I guess one could call it ‘rules vs. discretion’. I know that yunny1’s example does fit Nison’s definition of a bearish engulfing bar, and that this is a powerful signal (it is something I look for). However, personally I am with Tang’s initial, instinctive response in that I would not trade that. Even where there exist rules regarding patterns etc., within patterns that fit the definition, there will always be examples that are absolutely textbook, and others that fit but are not quite as neat. Triangles are a good example - some leap out and are very clear, others need a little poetic licence, yet each count as triangles.
Over time, I have refined my strategy, as we all do, following back testing, losing trades, coaching etc. I no longer trade a bearish engulfing bar where only the body does the engulfing - I will only trade them, these days, where the full second bar, including wick and body, fully engulfs the full length of the preceding bar, including its wick. I just find them much more reliable that way.
So I guess I am agreeing with both yunny1 and Master Tang - yunny1’s example is an engulfing pattern, but personally I would not trade that example, but I would trade Tang’s example as the wick is also engulfing (particularly if, as he says, this lines up with S&R etc). This is based on my own experience of trading these patterns - the ‘body only’ engulfing bars just aren’t that powerful, imho.
Anyway, I hope that this is of interest in context and absolutely no disrespect intended to yunny1 who is the author of some great posts on this site.
ST
Ok, took a little long before i left for work this morning on EU as it bounced from 15 min trend line I’d drawn in last reply. Risked 10 pips aiming at 1-3560 but as price stalled I closed for +22 pips. So since I am now at work that really is me finished trading for the week.
Balance now sits $119.97 so I’m delighted with this week’s effort.
Anyway I hope you were all successful this week and I hope you all have a great weekend.
HoG
Hi all ! i have this problem for a pending order in Meta trader 4: i place the price 1.300, the stop loss 1.3985 or lower, and the take profit at 1.320. I want to buy limit, but i can’t buy limit with this, it says Invalid s/l or t/p. It allows me to buy stop this. Why can’t i buy limit ?
THx
Definitely I agree with both of you that is best to have a complete engulfing candle, it has better results in terms of pips.
I took that trade because we were reaching a resistance area and the top of the channel.
Anyway I guess all depends on your trading personality.
:)
Nice profits you made. Congrats!
My week was a little weak, lol. One trade did not close where it should. The reason? Tick volume of one broker is not the same as from another. I have to adapt my backtests to the volume of the other broker. Anyways, losses are part of the business.
Have a great weekend everybody!
Hi ST
I just noticed your reply as I was scanning through for the last time and thought I’d reply.
Of course you are correct, 5-7% risk on any one trade IS too much. But looking back through the trade journal that I have started keeping recently, I’m beginning to realise that the 5-7% risk ISN’T, or hasn’t been, my problem. OK, I take that back, let me rephrase, it isn’t my PRIMARY problem.
Looking at the past trades, I would say a bigger problem has been my entry levels. Even though I have made steady profits over the last couple of weeks, they have came at a large risk. And this, I am beginning to think, is because my poor choice of entry levels have more or less FORCED me to take larger risks.
Let me try to explain better because even I am confused right now.
In the trade I mentioned in my last post, I bought on a test of a support line I had drawn on a 15 min chart. I risked 10 pips below that support line ( < 1% ) of my balance. Price rose from my support line and I made + 22 pips. Had I lost the 10 pips, it would have been no great heartache. It was a GOOD ENTRY POINT. However, the loss of 5-7% would have undone all the good achieved this week in one trade
But, looking back over numerous previous trades, I’m beginning to see that my ENTRY points have been 40 / 50 even as much as 70 pips away from ANY support or resistance levels. So this in turn has literally forced me to use 5-7% of my balance just to put a stop at a support or resistance level.
So as I say, while I totally agree that 5-7% is WAY TOO MUCH RISK, I’m only now starting to realise WHY I have been using so big a risk percentage. I suppose it’s just another benefit of keeping a journal as it may have taken me a lot longer to realise this had I not had the journal to look over.
I guess it’s a good lesson for other newbies to learn to, that it is important to plan your entry and exit levels, as they have knock on effects to the rest of your trade plan. Draw your S&R lines, WAIT til price gets close to them and then trade them accordingly. Hitting a button while price is in the middle of nowhere, as you quite rightly said, may work for a while, but it won’t always work, and the losses incurred in one trade can take out days, even weeks worth of effort.
Anyway, that said, and on the subject of domestic chaos, we have had the “pleasure” of my sister-in-laws [I][B]two little “Angels”[/B][/I] this week. So once you have finished with your builders, I would appreciate it if you could send them round to me LOL !!:30:
Anyway, have a good weekend ST, talk later.
HoG
Yeh Buckscoder, I was fortunate enough to have had a good week. But just like you, I know my next weak spell is just around the corner. As I mentioned above in my reply to SimonTemplar, I’m consciously making an effort now to work on bringing down my risk % on each trade.
Anyway, I’m sure you’ll come back fresh for the battle in the new week ahead so have a good weekend and I’ll talk again soon.
HoG
Thank you HoG!
Oh yes, I’ll be back. Like Mr. Schwarzenegger (Terminator), lol. To beat me needs a little more than just a few bugs of my bot or a stupid trade here and there. I am still learning from my errors, but I know how to survive. I have a nice expertise in economics, so at least I know how to control my risk and money.
That 10% loss Friday was not nice, but it is something we all have to go through. Frankly, my bot has a tolerance til 20% drawdown, so that’s not a big deal at all. Plus it made already a lot of profit. It’s just a sad feeling if I think it will need another minimum 2.5 trades to recover that loss. Anyways, those are the rules in this business. Either several small losses and a few big winners in trend trading or the opposite in sort of breakout trading. Or just winners and one big loss or a few of them to blow your account after that, lol.
It’s just that I have only 2 years of experience. I feel that this is not enough to really know if my strats are working in the long run. Say 10 years or so. There is a lot of desinformation everywhere and I can only trust myself, because I developed my strats from the ground up. There is nothing and nobody who can help me. That’s a really lonely feeling, particular if you get a loss. Ha ha, okay heads up. It’s not that bad. The week before I had 4 winning trades. The expectancy of this system is between 2/3 til 4/5 winners. I just hope the next trade will be better. Albeit even this can be a loser. That’s statistics.
HoG, you have a great week as well!
Hi All
New week beginning not too far away from starting now. Just thought I’d write this as I am trying to work out how to upload pictures from another site. I’ve tried photobucket but for some reason I can’t work that out.
so If some random images start to appear on this thread then please don’t get too confused, it’s only me trying to sort this out. It would make it so much easier to explain what I am trying to do if I could post images. Talk soon
HoG
Ok I’ve tried to add images but for some reason I’m just not getting anything very clear. Just need to muddle on without them unless someone has any advice.
HoG
Hi Hog, hope you had a good weekend and are basking in the Indian summer now. Can’t help thinking that it is just lulling us into a false sense of security before some early snow…
I have never managed to upload an image onto this site successfully. But I am by no means a computer genius…!
On your point about percentage risk, I absolutely see where you are coming from. I would say, though - at risk off sounding like a complete bore, I know that I am not your father lol! - that I do believe that it is possible to find trades within an acceptable risk level, then simply take on those trades that require a larger stop loss once the account has grown. It might be dull, but it is the safest path. And this is a long career, so plenty of time for the wider range of setups down the track… I risked 1% per trade when I started out, and I risk 1% per trade now, and have always been able to find sufficient setups to grow the account.
I take a mix of trades, some with a 20 pip Stop, some with a 200 pip Stop, and many in between. Some require a larger account to cover, but I would still be trading successfully with a small account, I just wouldn’t have as many trades to choose from. You can make 10% a month on one trade a week, as long as it is the right trade!
Thanks for sticking with this thread, there is a lot of good stuff on it.
I promis to shut up about percentage risk, now.
ST
Forget Photobucket for charts, unless you want to keep them.
Go to tinypic.com. and follow the upload instructions. No membership necessary, just a simple photo upload. When the pic is uploaded, you’ll get a list of code choices.
Copy the second one down, and past here.
It will look like
And viola. A pic in your post:D
