Agreed it’s a Friday… but she’ll go! LOL. He says twirling his worry beads! Darn thing keeps bouncing off that line… ‘time and pressure’ :18:
‘Steady in the ranks!!’
Left an order in place this morning to sell 2 lots should EU het back to 1-38. Stop just above previous resistance at 1-3837. Left my target open to be honest.
Read and article on bloomberg last night written by currency strategist from Deutche Bank saying he expects Euro to be at 1-20 within 3 months as long as it trades below 1-4050 ish.
Obviously I’m not expecting to get THAT MANY pips, though it would be nice.
However the more I read the more it sounds as though certain governments are preparing their banks before the official Greece default. Stalling to prepare before the announcement.
Maybe got it wrong, just my take on it but if I can avoid my stop I might just stay in for a while to see where it goes.
All sounds sensible stuff, and the fundamentals are certainly screaming ‘short the Euro’ at the moment. I just take my lead from TA, and mechanically stick to my strategy without exception; I’m pretty fussy about it and this has not given me a setup so I’ll get my popcorn out and watch you guys finish the week strong!
ST
Would be nice indeed if we holding for 100 or 200 dollars per pip and it drops a thousand or two thousand pips in a couple of months.
With that being said, I would go with STs take on things.
But then it never stops us from dreaming.
I don’t know which current euro developments you’re looking at, but the ones I’ve been following for the last couple weeks have been screaming ‘go long dips’ which is quite clearly being mirrored in the recent price action.
Bullish troika agreement to the latest tranche of Greek bailout aid.
Slovakia’s green light for the EFSF expansion deal.
Positive murmors out of the ECB monthly bulletin on bank liquidity funding &
Expected steady Ind Production numbers.
I’d have thought they were sufficiently bullish to warrant a current long view, no?
my stop was hit last night for a 10 pip profit… looks like this thing is going north
Obviously. The short grill is smoking already. Was too good to be true with that resistance there.
Patience is a virtue. NOW we can look where to go short.
Great weekend to everybody!
Well, that is all a matter of timescales; as I have said already in this thread today, I took a long trade this morning. I said that we are in an ascending triangle, I said that the technical picture is looking very mixed, and then when we discussed a short trade I saw the idea but did not have a setup that I would take. I do not think that a couple of weeks’ bullish sentiment means much in the current context, we have only made it halfway back to where we were at the end of August, and for each positive news announcement there is at least one negative - Spanish credit rating, Deutsche Bank loan issues… even on the Greek story you mention, ‘latest tranche’ of Greek bailout aid says it all - that issue is by no means resolved, just the latest patch. If expected ‘steady’ Ind Production numbers makes it into your top four factors to be bullish on the Euro then I don’t think that these boosts are enough to address the wider problems.
So I don’t think that I am being controversial saying that overall bias can be short on the Euro, even if we are in a current rise. One of the great attractions of Forex trading is that one can make money from the retracements as well as the prevailing trends. Of course the recent PA shows Price rising - and I have made money from long trades - but that is quite different from the overall view one might form of currency. I have traded several currencies in both directions, recently - AUD/USD being a good example - as a currency trader, that is what we do, which means that our tactical, money-making analysis on any given morning might lead to trading in the opposite direction of the prevailing bias of the Pair.
I did not hold a trade on EUR through lunchtime as there were USD news annoucements, so please don’t mistake my wider view of the Pair for an assertion that selling at that precise moment is what I would do or recommend.
I have had two 10:1 trades in recent weeks shorting the Euro, plus various secondary trades that still ran well, while the long trades have been less frequent and have not run as well, so I am simply repeating a view that I hold and that has worked for me. You are obviously completely within your rights to disagree with me.
However quite apart from all that, there was no real need for the slightly confrontational, bordering-on-sarcastic tone of your message: if you don’t agree with me, fine. As long as we are both making money, then we’re both right at the moment that we’re in the market. I know I made money today, so I am content that my take on the market is doing for me what I need it to.
ST
This sort of thing would never happen down the Trader’s Arms ST. The bouncers would step in at the first hint of any sarcasm LOL !!!
I knew you’d run a tight ship, HoG!
I think you’re a little on the sensitive side. Chill out, if I’d intended to be sarcastic or slightly confrontational you’d certainly know about it 
I wouldn’t call a (current) 7 handle move to the upside on obvious bullish sentiment anything to sneeze at. Capturing 4.5 - 5.0 of those handles adopting a pyramiding sequence makes a whole lot of sense, regardless of the timescales. Besides, how do you know it’s not going to carry on climbing for another 2-3 weeks?
Professional traders make money by ensuring they zone into the themes that are [U]currently[/U] driving market sentiment. They worry about the wider, aspects when the market decides to bring them back into focus again, not before.
But you didn’t say overall bias in that post though.
You alluded to the here & now. Well, I certainly equate the phrase [I]at the moment[/I] to mean that anyhow, hence my reply & opposing comments. Which again back up the markets view & bias in relation to the recent directional move off 1.32
No-one gives a spit about what might happen in 1 or 2 months time. That doesn’t put bread on the table this weekend. We’re currently trading on a tight leash, driven by extreme volatility. Dealers are only concerned with what’s on today’s menu, not next months.
Overall bias isn’t on the radar so far this month & there’s an awful lot of trading to do between here & the end of October.
But that’s the point I’m making.
Each of those individual items are used to form a general & accumulative view which adds substance to the near-term drivers impacting the price action.
That’s part of what professional traders use to scale up into & pyramid their core positions. They react to the ongoing developments that the market is focusing attention on. When those themes or influences begin to lose their lustre, they begin covering & scaling out.
You think I’m a little on the sensitive side, I think you’re a little on the rude side, but from these posts and your contributions on other threads I don’t think that we are destined to agree on much (even when we factually agree), so let’s leave it here rather than clutter up HoG’s otherwise-enjoyable thread with a to and fro that won’t lead to either side learning much.
We’re both making money, so what we each know works for us and we both understand the markets, that’s what matters.
ST
actually the one event that change the trend was the agreement about Dexia…showing they are willing to support any bank in trouble
this thread fortunately is being fill with a lot of information by good traders that happen to be very polite when they express their views of the market… and no sarcastic attitude towards others opinion…
Actually, the classic definition of sentiment bias is PA above 100 daily EMA = bull and below bear. Back in the day, professional traders would quickly scan through many daily charts (before it all went computer) and discard all but the bleeding obvious! Looking to EU one could reasonably assume this latest move up as a mere correction. In any event, its still to break above the daily 100 EMA.
Well I got a kicking today… out for -40 but a small win of 15 points so not to bad given my net gain this week. I’ll be calling into that Pub of yours HOG over the weekend… love a pint of real ale! LOL
EDIT: hmm… that small win has moved to 33 and I’m out, so a net loss of 7 pips today. LOL
Seconded!
Indeed! But sometimes life’s too short… I’m here to learn, help and have fun - I didn’t think that any of the three was going to be fulfilled by pursuing that particular exchange.
Sorry about the small kicking you received, and glad that the week stayed good overall - I thought of your trade when I checked in on the EUR chart this afternoon - as I said at the time, I saw the case for it, although my strat did not give me a setup. Anyway, I was always told to think of a loss as an investment in future market liquidity from which you can benefit next time!
Speaking of liquidity, I am off out for another Chatsworth. Good weekends all!
ST
we all make mistakes in the beginning but if you keep a level head you’ll be fine
3 winners. 20+ pips for me today and that’s fine.
No ale, but a new trading book is waiting for me.
You all have a good weekend, too!
Ahhh, you’re obviously a little prickly about your best buddy being pulled up over his inability to distinguish between a trend continuation move & an obvious range on a 15 minute chart.
Oh well, I’m sure I’ll live
It’s certainly filled with something.
The polite aspect of the content isn’t really in doubt. The other bit is unfortunately not nearly so cut & dried.
Yeah, but we’re no longer trading back in the day. Thankfully life moves on.
Today the smarter ones are (still) equipped with the necessary nous to be able to quickly identify situations where they’re not attempting to make extremely hard work of a bleedin obvious bullish bias by attempting to pick tops or bottoms. Using [B]all of[/B] the available information at their disposal usually ensures they’re at least a couple steps ahead of the pack.
Agreed, one could.
But like I said to your sensitive friend, capturing the middle chunk of what is at the moment a 7 handle shift to the upside on quite obvious bullish technical & fundamental appetite, is taking the common sense route & using the current market momentum to your advantage.
I think it’s often referred to as working smart not hard.
There’s a time & a place for shorting back into the longer range view, but it certainly isnt his month yet.
Technology moves on but the daily 100 ema is still the initial starting place for assessing the most favourable instrument to trade. As I’m sure your aware longer term trends can last months and even years. The EU bias my friend is still short. What you are advocating was and still is a counter trend trade. Great (if you took it and held it?) it worked out this time… otherwise your using the benefit of 20/20 vision to point out the error of my ways. I can’t speak for others, but I am not ‘attempting to pick tops or bottoms’. Merely trading oportunities as and when they present. It would seem its been enough for me to remain a profitable interbank floor trader for what is it now… oh yea… thirtyone years. And you?