Ah - good news and obviously you would have thought of that anyway! A Stop above that spike on 17th October [I]ought [/I]to be safe, or as safe as anything at the moment! Although having said that, that could be a decent level going through across that 240 high of 15th September, so around 1.3938. But I’m not even in the trade, so will stop rambling.
ST
I’ve a stop in place at 1.3935 and TP1 at 1.3689 (1:2 RR). Longer term… 1.3564.
Hmm, what backs your analysis from my side is a beta 2+ on the daily. So, it’s overvalued in relation to the mean average regression wise. The other side of the coin is that it’s already in a downtrend on the daily and this downtrend could come to an end as the tl is broken to the up side and the regression channel looks a little steep already. So, that’s why I just wait. It could bounce a little up and back maybe your s @ 13650 around before it goes anywhere. On the weekly it’s still undervalued in an uptrend. 
Agreed with all of that BC. But the weekly can move several hundred pips just in its hi/lo tunnel without changing its trend, so I am not overly concerned. My primary focus is on the dollar at at 9,702. It looks way overdue a rally?
Just got home from hospital for a short break and took a short at 1-3854. Resistance looks to me at 1-3914 from high od 15/09/11 and 17/10/11 so put my stop just above at 1-3920.
Put target at 1-3685 around lows of 13th and 18th Oct.
Back to Hospital soon, good luck all and take care.
HoG
Well CERTAINTY has staked his reputation on another thread (or three!) that Price will hit 1.3350, so your longer-term target looks good in that context. I certainly see us getting to 1.3400; ordinarily I would be moderately confident of that, but the recent market has taught me that confidence should be left at the door lol.
Love how all our charts look entirely different, yet give us each what we need. I agree with what you are saying, but one could look at the Weekly as a rough symmetrical triangle, with current Price about in the middle, no man’s land if you like, so between that and the fundamentals I have decreasing faith in the Weekly uptrend - it is holding so far, but Weekly PA was pretty choppy/consolidated from end of May to early September, so things aren’t as neat as I like them. Guess I’m a fussy trader lol.
ST
Really hope that all is going smoothly, HoG
That can just be for your accounts advantage!
Yes, I am not sure, that’s why I rather stay out and wait until the picture clears up a little. I have still my bots and they take care of trading if I am helpless. So in trading by hand I just try now to pick the best cherries around. 
Buckscoder, you are something else!!!
Anyway, so quietly, you are backing an uptrend but pretending to do otherwise publicly. I am just laughing from afar!
Anyway, I wish the best for you and so “happy trading”!:42:
True, simon. EURUSD must go back to 1.335 because of a contradiction created on the daily chart. But to do so it must first correct a contradiction on the hourly chart. That is why I said, people should take as much pips but keep their eyes on 1.335 because as soon as EURUSD corrects the anomaly on the 1hr chart the move to 1.335 will be swift!!!
So, in the short term, focus on 1.3911!!! It is a must!
Can you read? I said I am flat! Not long, not short! Regarding your “challenge request” at the closed thread. Just fyi: I am not a teen with bumps in my face. My challenge is the market. If you need a challenge, go for your buddies! I am not one of them!
Closed at 1-3790 for +64 pips. I know I said I’d targeted high 1-36’s but, home for lunch, picked up + 64, back out the door again. If I could do that every day of my life I wouldn’t have too many complaints.
HoG
I shouldn’t bite, but to be fair to Buckscoder he said that he was staying out as the picture is mixed. I am staying out because I don’t like trading over news. We were just discussing the current picture, but neither of us is trading it, so there is no pretence on his part, he has been quite open and consistent.
Quite, and such trading challenges don’t prove much, anyway, as we each of us trade with different style, risk appetite, frequency, strategy, goals etc.
If anything, challenges would dilute the quality of discussion on this site as it could distort the exchanges. We are here to learn, share ideas and enjoy ourselves - we each make our money in our own homes/offices/yachts/private islands whatever so I think Buckscoder is right to turn down the challenge.
Just my thoughts and sorry, Buckscoder - I did not mean to attract attention to this thread and cause a continuation of your discussion with CERTAINTY. Apologies if I caused that by naming him/her earlier on.
Now hopefully we can move on!
ST
Don’t be so sorry for your own opinion, please! I like individual opinions. 
Well, to get a little away from personal stuff, just what I think about those challenges regarding the market. I am definitely not the hare:
This was part of a post by SimonTemplar a few pages ago. The subject of that particular post is not important now, but this particular section did remind me that I HAVEN’T added an update about my trading exploits recently. And I’ve been meaning to do it. So since I have some time to myself tonight, I thought I would update now.
I have no doubt already that this will turn into a long post, so if you do intend to read it all, it might be wise to go make the cup of coffee now.
Anyway, let’s get to it. First of all I would like to say that I already know some of the information in this post will make the more experienced guys cringe, possibly even close their eyes and shake their heads a little, and if I say that I don’t care, it’s not because I don’t value their opinions, which I do, but it’s because I have to travel MY forex journey, no-one else can do that for me, or you for that matter.
So first up is my account balance. Currently back down to $103. That is from a low of $43, back up to a high of $151 and back down to around the $133 level for a while. And that also includes the gain of + 64 pips ( $6.40 ) made today at lunchtime. So what went wrong? Well, funnily enough, I don’t think anything HAS went wrong, and I’ll tell you why.
Again, just before I start to dig the hole, if anything I write here starts to sound like an excuse, I assure you it’s not. I don’t believe in them. These are just MY thoughts and this is just the way I do things.
Over the course of this thread, I have had a changing opinion of Demo accounts. First I didn’t like them, stating that I didn’t think they taught a beginner anything regarding psychology of trading. Then I liked them, trying out trades I wasn’t brave enough to take on a live account. And now I don’t like them again, mainly due to the realization that if you don’t like a trade enough to take it in a live account, maybe that’s all the information about that trade that you really need.
Just as you hear time and time again that you need to find a trading method that suits you individually, I have ALWAYS had a quite unique learning method, even as a child. I was never a person who could study. I’ve said before I find it difficult to learn from reading, and that is true. For me, I’ve always had to fall on my arse, because that’s how I learn. Has this made life a little more bumpy than it could have been? Sure, I have no doubt about that. But in my opinion, I was lucky enough to have realised that at quite a young age.
So, was been down 90 pips in a demo account, on a trade that I took because I was trying to work out how to effectively use moving averages, with NO REAL cost to me at stake, teaching ME anything personally? No, it wasn’t. Because being down $900 in a demo account doesn’t come close psychologically to being down $1 in a live account.
So why tell you all of that? Well it’s because that is where I test new indicators now, in my live account !! ( think I just heard a few of the experienced guys groan a bit there. ) Has this caused the drop in my balance. Maybe a little, but not the main reason.
So that’s how I learn, it is what it is and I am who I am. Almost 45 now guys, I don’t think I’m going to grow out of that method now. I’m just a charge in, think about the consequences later kind of person. So what, apart from my rather suicidal learning technique, have been the challenges I’ve faced as a newbie?
One of them is the times I get to trade. Having a “real” job (LOL ! Sorry traders ! ) I only get to trade, more or less, in the last couple of hours of New York, and then I sit up to about 1 am trying to find a trade. This trying to “find” a trade invariably leads to trying to FORCE a trade. ie find one that isn’t really a trade, just a gamble. And a gamble is more or less just a coin toss. 50/50 chance of being right/wrong. Instead of waiting for higher probability trades, we just roll the dice. So has this been the major reason for my loss? Again, maybe a little, but NOT the main reason.
Funnily enough, ICT mentioned in his Aspiring Trader thread about the correlation of Strong Dollar = Weak Risk Currencies ( and Weak Dollar = Strong Risk Currencies ). And on the days where I have been fortunate enough to be off work and able to spend time in front of the TV with Bloomberg showing the news, and being able to track the direction of the Dow and S&P, these have been the times I’ve gained back some of what I’ve lost. So I guess you could say that having real time access to real time news, AS YOU ARE TRADING, is a key component to trading success.
Then for a while I was on a good winning streak, I started to win more and more and my account literally shot up from around $109 ish to $150. Then I had a big loss, which admittedly took a lot of the wind out of my sails and for the next two or three trades I slumped emotionally into the “I don’t care anymore” way of thinking and made a couple of really wreckless ones. So has the greed caused the drop? Well? Any guesses? Nope, that’s not been the main culprit either !
In fact, when I think about it, I really can’t put my loss down to most of the usual suspects. It’s not been greed, it’s not been impatience, over-confidence or lack of research, as the MAIN reason my account is down. So what IS the main reason?
Well in my opinion it’s pride. Or, put another way, my total and utter inability to accept a loss. It’s a constant struggle with me. Some time ago I made a trade in which I moved my stop loss to keep me in a trade. This turned out to be the subject of a good couple of pages on this thread. And I still do it, or things similar.
Last night I placed a trade and gave myself a error margin of 20 pips, ( without checking the exact numbers and off the top of my head, I think I placed my stop at 1-3760 on a short from 1-3740 on EU ) But I had to go to bed. Price had bobbed around 1-3740 for ages and hadn’t done anything for a while, but rather than just leave it at those levels, at which I would have only lost $2 on my trade, I moved my stop to 1-3820, “Just to be sure my trade stayed alive while I was sleeping”. And guess what happened ??? Price moved up through 1-3820 while I was in bed and I ended up losing $8. That’s 4 TIMES WHAT I SHOULD HAVE LOST !!!
So that’s the struggle I’m having with trading. Now I’ve come across some knowledgeable people on this thread( you all know who you are without going through the names ) who have been good enough to offer advice. And that is appreciated and I hope you all know that. But, even though I’ve said what I’ve just said, and you and I know that these things are wrong, they are part of MY journey, they are MY trading demons. You’ve had yours before me and had to deal with them. And I’m sure any newbies reading this are having the similar, if not the same, struggles.
But I’d just like to reassure newbies that this IS the norm. I have no doubt all traders go through the same things, ask the same questions, have the same doubts. But that’s NOT what newbies come here to hear. Newbies are in search of the answer, the secret, the well over used term “the holy grail”
Well you won’t find it on this thread, sorry. But what I WILL tell you is what I am working on just now.
First thing is Price Action. Nikitafx has a good thread called Pure Price Action For Dummies. Newbies could do worse than head over there and have a read. I find sometimes I look at price action and the candles may be telling me one thing, but the preceding trend was opposite, and I struggle to trust what the patterns are telling me. Having the faith in what I’m seeing and thinking is hard sometimes.
As for what I’m using besides price action on my charts, I keep a 4h chart with ONLY the last 4 weeks highs and lows, + this current week’s high and low on it, constantly as a reference. But I also at the moment run 1w, 1D, 4H, 1H, 15m, 5m and 1m charts that look like this :
I hope you can see that. Just in case you can’t, it’s a Daily chart that has Donchian Channels, Fractals and Alligator on it. I may also run a 100 EMA from time to time. Now here’s a funny thing to admit. Donchian Channels are a thing that was only mentioned recently to me on this thread and I don’t know fully how they are used. I only have a very basic working knowledge of them, I’m currently trying to research more about them and how to best effectively use them, but at a glance they give me a quick idea of support and resistance levels.
Fractals also give me a quick idea of S&P levels and again I’m currently trying to read up on them but in reality know LESS about them than I know about Donchian Channels.
Alligator, read about them a little, I know they are supposed to be used in conjunction with fractals, but I DON’T know as of yet the exact interaction between the two. Again, reading about them currently.
Strange thing about telling you all of these things I have on my chart which I have very little knowledge of, is that I get a strange sense of comfort from them. At a glance, combining them with what the candles are telling me, I’m starting to get a feel for direction. A SMALL sense of feeling of direction admittedly, but I’m trying to read and I’m trying to learn. And I just like them, that’s all !!
So anyway, all that said, what are the positives to be taken from my trading so far.
First thing, and most important thing in my opinion is that I am, or should I say my account is, still alive. Still here, still using my first live account, still going.
Next positive is I’m starting to recognise my weaknesses. Very important that, just as important as knowing your strengths.
Again I’m trying to work on them. Leave pride at the door as much as humanly possible.
Next thing is more of a personal matter in a way. As we all know, mainly from doing this very thing, the world economy is not in the best shape. And my current industry, like a helluva lot of other industries, is finding it tough just now. And for the first time, I find myself, at 45, without a back-up plan. No “plan-B” as it were. And initially I thought, if I could learn this FX thing, it may end up being the primary source of income, as it’s just as much possible to make money in FX when things are bad as it is when things are good.
But the problem is, that even now, I don’t think I’ve been treating the protection of my account balance seriously enough. It’s been a game in a way, maybe because the balance is so small, who knows. But whatever the reason, I’ve not been taking it seriously enough. And it is only in the last day or two, and I know that may seem strange, but only in the last day or two I’ve started to think, “Hold on a minute, I need to do better at this. This HAS to be treated the same way I treat my taxi business otherwise I’m just pissing about in the bedroom upstairs at night when I’d be better off spending time with kids watching cartoons. If you decide to do it, and therefore decide to spend less time interacting with the family, at least have the decency to treat it seriously”
I know that may sound a bit melo-dramatic, but it’s true never the less. It won’t ever work if you treat it like a game.
So that’s more or less my update ramble directed at the newbies. I’ve told you what I’m worth, literally I think, and what I’m currently using and working on.
Future reading plans are on Elliot waves. Not entirely sure how much I would use Elliot waves on a full time basis, but I think it would be useful to at least have a grounding on the subject.
Anyway, I think that’s about it. As I’ve said before these thoughts and rambles may not make sense to a lot of people, but they’re part of my thought process and it was always the intention of this thread to share that, as SimonTemplar put it, “Warts and all…”
HoG
PS. I am NOT advocating the “charge in, ask questions later” learning technique to any other person, take it from me, it’s a rough road, it just happens to be the way I do things apparently !!:20:
took profits for this trade 40 pips… and enter a new short at 1.3814
There is something I have just noticed as I was writing down my Highs and lows for the day. I don’t know how much weight you’d give to it, or even how you’d interpret it, but over the last 9 trading days, The Euro Dollar has only closed making a lower low once. Has made 3 lower highs, but only 1 lower low.
Any weight given here??
This is my view…
Candles show a good selling interest at 1.3900 area, 50 dma is containing the upward move, we are at 50% fibo level (1.4548-1.3146), dailies are a bit OB, we are at strong weekly resistance, MA in the 1H chart are now flat.
Regarding fundamentals everything is screaming bearish BUT if there is a coherent agreement in EFSF then E/U will skyrocket to 1.4200 at least
I will short every up move until 1.3935 :53:
I just took a long at 1-3765, stop 1-3758, target 1-3783. Dow and S&P futures up, Nikkei up and Kospi up just now. Worth 7 pips risk? We’ll see.
