@Johnscott31 Thanks for your input John, appreciated.
Basically all i’m looking to do is enter a long term trade for gold setting many partials along the way right back to up $2050, and leaving 1 runner for maybe even years. As soon as 1900 is reached i’m risk free. The thing about long term trades is timing is important because the price cannot ever go lower than when you got in since SL are very tight on daily and weekly timeframes… you have to get it right, so i’m asking whether people think, based on their own experience and analysis, gold may have bottomed?
I’m only enthused about the buying opportunity in the sense that gold has a strong history of reaching lows around this time of year, it’s an opportunity for all and happens every year, i’ll most likely be back this time next year looking for the same patterns and opportunities, while obviously being aware of no guarantee of this.
the weekly still shows the same major buying opportunity to me.
One conundrum i’m facing is setting my SL to breakeven, I think this is risky because the SL is much higher meaning there’s much more chance of gold reaching this level, then not going any lower and me being faced with all the same questions as for when to get in, maybe even discovering i already had a great entry price and now have to rejoin at a higher price. This is where i’m just not sure what i’m supposed to do.
That’s good. Though i suppose where our trade differences lie are based around the 1850 level, I do have a partial set here but will not cover the cost of the total loss if price reverses.
Right now i’m “hoping” price doesn’t reverse lower to re-test the 1765 area, and hoping isn’t the right way to trade. I don’t know what to do to seek out more news on this scenario, or if it’s even possible to? It might be a “wait and see” scenario in which case hope is all i have. Maybe as you said, look at the technicals and base it on that. Maybe the fact 1765-50 offers stronger support since there is confluence there and points towards a likely retest? Either way I’m in now, so there are negative consequences if i get out at profit on 1850 and a low re-test does not happen.
I’ve a few strategies under Technical Analysis category - the most popular one and my personal favourite is the Harami Inside Bar - and it does work very well in the gold market
All you need to do is trust your own analysis. You took the trade based on your proven methodology which has worked in the past. So do not panic . Trust your system and let it do the job you employed it to do. Because, if you temper with it based on all different opinions we throw at you on this forum, you will regret it when it turns to be a winner (without you of course).
BTW I manually closed mine just before NFP, in fear of the report messing it up. I wasn’t planning to hold it past the weekend anyway. (My trading plan does not allow that).
I for one am a swing trader, but I do my analysis on the weekly timeframe and look for price patterns on the daily timeframe. With the little Knowledge of the market I have, a retest of the swing low (1760-50) is likely. Going for a runner buy at this stage would require a SL right below the swing low to avoid unnecessary whipsaws.
The retest is already evidently building up on the daily timeframe. (well, according to my own technical analysis). The level around 1850 has strong resistance confluence on the daily,(50 ma, role reversal, fib 61.8.) Looking at my final confirmation, the stochastics is also recording a very steep hidden divergence, which could see the market selling off to the previous low…
Remember that on this timeframe, the bearish move to retest the swing low is trend continuation, which could be strong enough to break the low. However, that will only be evident days, or even weeks to come. For now, I am only concentrating on the price action on the level around 1850.
I got out at 1844, small profit, but am now waiting for better entry. Maybe sub 1800 is on the cards once more? From a technical standpoint… a head and shoulders appears to be carving it’s way into the 4h, so a hard drop below 1830 could kick it all off.