Hello all. I just want to put the feelers out to get some views from more experienced traders with good insight.
I recently went long on gold, I took a few positions with staggered TP levels, 1848, 1897, 2055 and finally the ultimate long term TP of 2289. if this works i will double my account in the next 6 months off of this one amazing trade, by far the best trade i will ever pull off with an amazing RR of 10/1.
My entry wasn’t perfect, i was waiting all morning for a bullish breakout of the 1805-1818 consolidation and as it happens it broke to the upside on my way to work, by the time i saw it was now at 1825 and not wanting to waste any time, i jumped in with those positions. I saw a little pullback to 1815 but now finally i’m all the the green and seem to be making way to 1850 where i know lies a large hurdle to overcome since it’s a strong level of resistance AND has confluence with i think the 50day sma - hence why i set a TP level here,
My worry is this level triggering an aggressive rejection and retest of the 1765 area … since my SL won’t cover this and i don’t want to be taken out at small losses, i’m SL1792 to cover any volatility the 1800 level may bring. I could get out on all positions at 1850 but that could mean a new challenge of getting back in at the right time again and leaves the potential to mess it up or see the price not even dip that low. I just want to get peoples thoughts on what they think is likely to happen, granted i know no one truly knows, but experienced insights aren’t useless. Do people think gold has bottomed out and now is begiing a new rise? Or has gold the realistic possibility of dipping below 1800 once more? in which case i’ll be out.
Quite possibly bottomed, we are starting to enter a strong seasonal period for gold.
Past couple of days looks promising, but expect a bit more sideways action possibly
Interestingly a few pundits think gold is over now because bitcoin is stealing that money - so sentiment for gold is quite bearish (wish is a great sign).
10Rs are very doable in the gold market if you know how to move your stops correctly.
One thing I will warn you of though is thoughts of you doubling your account.
Sure it’s possible, but projecting it will interfere with any rationality you have while in the trade.
Id go as far to say the very question you are asking is based on the fact you are overly concerned about the trade and the large profit you have set yourself
Banish all thoughts of what profit you make and control the risk only.
I have posted a chart with what I believe may happen. Mind you nothing is certain in the world of trading. The level of 1860 is what i call a common number, that being a place where support has become resistance and my belief is that unless there are some economic news pushes prices higher that now resistance may hold.
@Johnscott31said in his post he believes that gold is coming into a strong seasonal period. That also may be true but according to my seasonal indicator I am not seeing any strong seasonal activity and in fact I see the opposite.
Yes don’t worry i’m very rational with my trades, the mention was just to highlight how great an opportunity this is and how important it is that i make sure i get this right without suffering losses.
I’m hoping gold has bottomed, but being experienced with only a year of sideways trading i look to the opinions and thoughts of those seasoned traders for advice/guidance. I read more about ‘grinding lower into December’ and levels like 1750 1725 or even 1700. I’m at good profits now with all 4 trades i have on gold, i’m in 2 minds as to just get out of all of them at 1850/60. and wait for the new low.
I don’t know how i’m supposed to know, it’s all based on analysis right? There’s a major buying opportunity coming up and my analysis tells me gold falling sub 1775 would draw buyers in, once it touched 1765 it bounced hard right back to 1840 and hasn’t looked back since, closing above the 200day ema and continuing growth from there. It just seems as though this is the time for buyers to get in?
I hear a lot about this 1850-60 level and know myself it will be strong resistance, but would of thought maybe 1830-1815 would find support, but some people seem to think 1750-25 might be the true bottom. Is there any real way to know or is it just based on a combination of analysis and experience?
I will just take my earnings and wait for a new low in which case.
yes due to fear of investors among stocks during next market plummet gold will continue to rally, its an evidence.
I’m quite agreeing with you that this level is the perfect entry to buy because you are on the monthly support(penetrated a little but will surely form next leg extension for the reasons above)
Still dubitative about the way you trade. for me you take a position out of emotion/feeling and not based on real way to trade.
Btw yes your prediction should be correct , because you are here at monthly support and crisis is knocking the door. even if nothing is sure, odds are with you.
Normally price wont reach your SL, not convinced about the way you placed your SL for the swing. here you are puttin an SL which can be put for a daily trade (holding a week). not for a swing. I’d placed the SL at least below the lower low for what I understood you want to do
and I personally dont think gold will reach your target within 6 months, i think the growth will be slowly and surely and may even staganating between 2000 and 1800lvl for a while
So my approach at the moment, is very much in need of development. I know, as we all do, that there is soon a MAJOR buying opportunity for gold, and I have been waiting for the right time, for the data to add up, so what do i define to be the right time? My decision was based on 3 things, trying to take as much emotion out of it as possible i observed the daily close of Tuesday being higher than the previous day, which is positive, and it had also risen back above the 200 day ema. Now that it has my attention, i also noticed what i identified to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 4H chart in the screenshot i’d sent. I noticed in the morning it had sustained this move, and soon had broken above to the upside catching my off guard hence the late entry and was, for me, confirmation of trend reversal and the time to buy. From all i’ve learned that’s 3 positive factors and that’s my signal. that was my analysis.
I probably wouldn’t be asking any questions or have many concerns at all about my actions, but i do read a lot as i’ve mentioned to other users here about this ‘lower grind into december’ or the 1750-25 area being of interest, and well maybe now i question whether i’m too eager? I have to question this because it’s possible they know something i don’t? So i’m trying to reach out to the community to help me hang on to my profits and negate and losses.
It’s good you think that now is the right time to buy and i appreciate your input or any other comments you may have.
nobody can ensure you that this is a winning trade
personally i have three scenarios that i will looking for (doing chart i post it after responding to you)
normally it should, but not 100% sure. for me you have to at least take partial profit of your trade when you reach an intermediary target and maybe buy again . and be careful to rise your sl as price rise. the way you manage the trade can avoid you lot of losses
@DucBourgogne Yes that’s good, i have partials set at 1850, 1900 2100 and finally 2300, none of which are hit yet, once 2 of my partials have been claimed it’s then a risk free trade. My attention is focused around 1850-60, it’s major resistance and until then i see the possibility for retreat lower. A sustained hold of this level i see as bullish and may even encourage me to add to my long term position.
My issue is that my loss cannot exceed 1880 because its the max you’re allowed to go before the broker removes your position, and pushing SL to max would be risk of 10% account loss if it retreats beyond 1780. So i’m here to get advice of more experienced traders.
My mentor who have more than 10years trading think price will continue to rally because of V shape (red arrow)
personally i think price will make blue arrow path because buyers will be taking profit so price will go down a little(retest of 1790 before going up)
What would the effect on Gold be if Corona virus disappeared in January? Wouldn’t that allow economies to grow at a faster rate . Pushing the USD stronger and some of the money on hedging in Gold being removed(crashing the price)?
I think it would really hamper the bullish run of gold if it disappeared quickly, however I’m pretty sure the journey to control the virus will take many months well into the back end of next year and there could also be complications, delays or issues along the way to recovery. Also the incentives for gold are larger than coronavirus. The bull market for gold was around before coronavirus so I think any effect the virus may have will be short lived.
Based on my 2 cents worth of analysis and experience, your trade idea is valid. I also am in a long trade taken at the break of the bullish hammer on the daily timeframe. (1788). However, I am not planning to hold it back to the ultimate highs, but until around 1850 which could possibly push the pair back to around1760 to create a double bottom. This area (1760-1750) could provide a strong support to propel gold to new all time highs, especially if a fundamental catalyst comes into picture to add to the already evident technical analysis. (looking at the weekly timeframe :50 MA , Fib retracement level 50, Previous resistance, now support.1750 being a “psychological level”)All this is evidence that the level is strong.
I am not a fan of oscillators, but I think most of them would register a bullish regular divergence if the market retests this level (especially on the daily TF)
You seem very convinced this is a major buying opportunity
Let me tell you one thing - major buying opportunities don’t show up on four hour charts they show up on weekly charts
They usually coincide with extreme positioning in swap dealer longs in the commitment of traders report and with rampantly bearish sentiment in the general public and media
Major buying opportunitues tend to be longer term trades.
Shorter term and day traders can make use of them too as price action to the long side becomes more favourable but you don’t need major buying opportunities to make money.
I suspect you are mixing up timeframes here which could lead you to a nice pop in price but hardly constituents to the bull run you are expecting.
I’ve been so obsessed with bitcoin of late I haven’t yet reviewed the sentiment for gold - I sure hope it’s going to start a decent run - but so far don’t see any thing to get too excited about
This isn’t meant to be disrespectful but temper your enthusiasm somewhat - I know these markets well having traded them from 2003 - and let me say there is no market that will show so much promise and ultimately disappoint as the precious metals.
