This is a pretty damning video. Everyone knows that by the time the crowd (which include retail traders taught by guys like Nial Fuller) enter the market, it’s already too late to make any significant gains and the market is likely to reverse on you. The professionals are already in profit and will likely shake the retail traders out because of their weak entries.
I challenge anyone who says they know "who" is trading what way at what time based on charts or tickers. They don't know shix and you can quote me on that. It doesn't matter who we are "trading against" or who is "trading against us". We don't know and neither do they. The so called "pros" are not able to take "stronger" entries than the retail traders.
Example:
I went short EUR/USD last December. I waited on the next four week high to close that trade and it didn’t come until this week. The trade profited handsomely. Who was I trading against? The pros or the retail traders? Wouldn’t the pros have already been short from way back in June or July? How about now, are they long, flat, or short EUR/USD? If they did get in months before me, did that ruin my profit potential?
Any answer is bullshix. “The pros” are a diverse group. There are members of that group that are long, others that are flat, and others that are short EUR/USD today. And they all got that way at different times at different prices for different reasons. The only thing they have in common is that they trade for a living. What they trade and how they do it can be completely dissimilar.
How about “the crowd”? What is “the crowd” doing? Who is “the crowd”? They are a diverse group that is just as varied as are the so-called “pros”. Sentiment indexes offer a snapshot of a given pool of traders in a given market usually with a given exchange or market maker. But how many of the participants in that index figure are “pros”? How many are “beginners”? How many will profit on their current position reflected in the index figure? Any answer is as made up as is the Book of Mormon or the life and times of Daffy Duck. Fiction.
I have seen countless traders and self proclaimed “pros” point at chart formations and say things like: “That candle is the signature of the smart money” or “That increase in volume means the idiots are coming into this market” or etc… All of that is pure fiction. They don’t know shix and neither do I. None of us have any idea who is behind a given candle or chart formation or why.
You can’t detect a good trader by his saying “They don’t know who is behind that candle, I do!”. You can simply detect a storyteller.
-Adrian
Thats always been one of my issues with social trading, by the time you make your trade the guy you’re following has got out.
Haha jeez I skim read through all 4 transcriptions and… well there’s something odd going on here.
From video no 4:
"“So pretty much every ‘guru’ who teaches price action teaches the same derivative, carbon copy, cut-and-paste method of trading price action.
That you need ‘confirmation‘, and the confirmation comes in 3-4 patterns such as a pin bar, engulfing bar, inside bar or whatever bar."
From post #143 of the thread ‘Understandig price action with Chris Capre’:
“I’m thinking the USD doesn’t have much more to go vs. the majors and am looking at the Kiwi which has been the most resilient vs. the greenback.
Today formed a pin bar + outside bar + engulfing bar off a key role reversal level so I think any pullbacks here should (if corrective) should bring a good opportunity to long the pair.”
Believe me, didn’t have to look hard to find that example. About 2 minutes of skimming his posts on that thread.
OK again in the 4th video there’s some nonsensical false analogy about martial arts. I’m not even going to bother copying and pasting any of that garbage in. Anyone with the tiniest sliver of critical thinking skill will see straight through it.
Then it gets really nasty:
“Yet this description above pretty much describes every price action, carbon copy, cut-and-paste guy out there, whether it be Nial Fuller, Jonathan Fox, or any other derivative.
And they are all derivatives of J16, which Nial used to be a member of before he went off thinking ‘I can do this same thing‘ and went and created his course, which is his own derivative version of it.
Since then, it’s only produced weaker and weaker derivatives. Very much like inbreeding weakens the genes, it’s the same with this version of price action being described.”
Someone’s playing games. Credibility gone.
Great post by the way.
+1000. Home run again bear. This one of the reasons why experienced retail traders mostly say don’t pay for “Trading methods, in most cases.” You can have the best trading method in the world, you can follow any successful trader, but if you don’t understand money management, patience, discipline and consistency you’ll fail. It’s not if, but when. Great thread
Gp
Good point, but I think you missed my point that by the time retail traders have hit the floor, the pros have already rung the bell.
Talk about missing the point. Ask yourself what the point of my response was. I am addressing exactly that. The following statement is pure nonsense: “By the time retail traders have hit the floor, the pros have already rung the bell”.
So did “the pros” “ring the bell” on EUR/USD? When did they? Are they long, short, or flat EUR/USD today? Any answer is a made up story that is pure nonsense. There are professional traders that are long EUR/USD today. There are professional traders that are short EUR/USD today. There are professional traders that are flat EUR/USD today. There are professional traders that will be long for part of the day, short for part of the day, and flat for part of the day.
Speaking of “the pros” as a group and saying that they are collectively “ringing the bell” is a fairy tale: a made up story that is completely impossible.
“Gurus” prey on people’s self esteem and tell them “you can be one of the pros”. They go around bullshixing out this phony story that some tiny percent of traders are “the pros” because they have the secret and/or the skills and/or the discipline that trading takes. And they claim they have it, that they are one of those “pros”. It is all a ridiculous pile of steaming made up dung. Don’t believe it.
-Adrian
At the end of the day isn’t the entire forex market just speculation? I mean I realize we can analyze indicators/candles/charts all day and we should be able to tell where it SHOULD go however this is not always a constant. I believe the same speculation washes over to being able to tell who is trading. Like I could sit there and watch candles all day and be like that was JP Morgran!, oooooh! that must of been Citi! But the fact of the matter is that it doesn’t really matter who I’m playing against because as long as I play the game I’m seeing in front of my face, the opponent matters not.
It not only matters not, it may even be a completely wrong view of the situation all together. Trading is too often compared to a casino game, it is not a casino game. It is not like poker wherein you bet against a particular opponent and try to win his losses. It is more like being in the shoe business than a casino game.
If you buy shoes from a wholesale distributor and resell them to retail clients, who are you trading against? Whose losses are you winning? If you say you are winning from the wholesaler who could have gotten the retail price directly from the consumer I will say you are winning from the consumer who could have paid the wholesale price directly to the distributor. If you say the opposite I will too. Perhaps it is some combination of the two? Perhaps the question of who you are betting against is nonsense.
What you are doing is arbitrage not casino gambling. You are buying from one market and selling to another. The wholesaler lost nothing by selling to you, he is better off. The consumer lost nothing by buying from you, he is better off. You lost nothing by retailing, you are better off.
If you shorted EUR/USD you took on the risk of it bouncing higher. You took that risk from someone needing to mitigate that risk like a eurozone business with dollar denominated recievables on its balance sheet. Eventually you closed that position at a profit by selling it to someone looking to mitigate the risk of euro weakness like a U.S. business with euro denominated recievables on its balance sheet. Who was made worse? Who did you trade against? Who lost? Nobody. That whole casino game paradigm is a skewed way of looking at the situation.
Remember Henry Hazlitt’s economics in one lesson, that the biggest mistake made in economics every time is to fail to see the full extent of the effects of a given event on all those effected by it.
-Adrian
Hehe, I wonder what Nial Fuller has to say?
Sounds like Adrian is on FIRE! 
good post (s)
He will response possibly through You Tube “videos” or snapchat? Lol
I think alot of the pros r out by time retail is in comes from what people who trade stocks or indices, would always say.
By the time the tip recommendation gets to the water cooler they rally is over. Its the top and the small individual trader/investor r too late.
Is it true who knows. but there r people who monitor such things and sell into.
I myself dont believe it in forex
Are there any Nial Fuller customers? I’m wondering how many success stories there are.
Didnt one of them have a long thread here. Wonder if they still visit or did they get enough customers?
Good elaboration Adrina! It’s important to keep it all down to simple facts.
The best trades of 2015 were for those who went long on CHF!!