I couldn’t understand this trade. Could you please explain why would you take a short trade ther e?
stochastic is pointing down from overbought on H4 chart other than that i assume its a decent trade you could take. but stoploss is arguable cuz bank of japan cant take his hands off his pants and jpy pairs are too volatile. But the trade looks tempting nonetheless. I even might take that trade depending on what Bijoy has to say about it))). Good luck.
this chart was H4 only technically (fundamentally aud looks positive) there is no reason at all to go long on aussie. No matter how high you go on chart, the picture is the same. And for now looks like 1.0362 is the key if it breaks down i expect lower and hopefully down below 1.0200.
thanks for the ‘support’ )))
@bhuruhan there is an easy way to take a snapshoot of your chart. Such as: right click on you chart and select “save as picture”
In normal case, I will enter on this trade without any doubt as a nice bearish bar is formed at the resistance. Considering weekend, I am not taking this trade. Good Luck.
i like this thread so much, bcoz all guys are care about others, how nice it is… 
I am also seeing a good opportunity to short this pair. Stochastic is also pointing down. Also presently, other correlated pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD etc are also showing bearish tendency for the base currency and bullish for US Dollar. NFP was also better than expected. A close below 1.0360 can confirm the action.
Share and care. The best way to learn.
Hi, Bijoymj, want to find out from you if I can long or short NZDJPY? And at which price?
Hallo, wenlong 76 and all other friends…
Today I took some time to analysis NZDJPY pair within my little knowledge and my assumptions are below.
See the daily Chart
The daily chart is showing some bearish divergence with oversold stochastic, which is a nice signal for a short trade.
Secondly, a bearish rising wedge is formed after a heavy downward movement. A bearish rising wedge is a bearish signal that indicates a reversal from an uptrend. This pattern sometimes is called a bearish continuation wedge because it also can indicate that a current downtrend may continue. Whether it’s a reversal or a continuation indicator, the chart pattern manifests the same way.
The bearish rising wedge consists of two converging trend lines that slant upward to an apex. This is because prices edge steadily higher in a converging pattern to higher highs and higher lows. Over the weeks or months that a bearish rising wedge pattern forms, it appears to trend upward, but the long-term range is still downward. This might seem a bit backward — aren’t higher highs and lows a bullish signal? Not necessarily. The “rallies” from the lower trend line become smaller and smaller each time. That makes the upper resistance line less sloped than the lower trend line, indicating a supply overhang.
When prices break below the lower trend line, the bears emerge the victors and the price falls.
The key here is that volume steadily decreases as the pattern forms, which is what makes that break below the trend line significant enough for a bearish trend. If volume remains the same or increases, this signal is less reliable.
Considering this facts, It is likely to have a strong bearish movement on NZDJPY. Closing of a daily candle below the wedge (Shaded portion) can confirm the commencement of expected downtrend.
Be conservative… Be patient. Jump in after solid confirmation. Best of Luck guys. Happy weekend.
Hi friends and thanks to Bijoy for sharing. Please allow me to add my analysis and feel free to correct me as I am still learning. Below is the Daily NZDJPY chart:
This is my first time posting my views and hopefully will get feedbacks for us to share our thoughts.
Cheers!
Merrymaker
Hi Merrymaker,
I think you can sell on break of 66.210, with initial stop at 66.767.
I am not so sure about targets yet, need to wait for next week before I know the weekly pivots and S/R which will give you a better idea of the targets.
Then as the trade progresses you can scale into the trade depending on your preference. I would not advise entering with multiple positions and scaling out because that is just amplifying your initial risk. Historically this pair tends to respect such pin-bar type reversal patterns on the daily but there are instances where price just shoots up, so do put that into consideration.
For example, one possible way you can scale into the trade would be to use 20-period ATR as steps, basically add 1 lot (or whatever your position size is) at each 1.0 ATR travelled and shift stops up so that each time your risk is only 1.0 ATR. Depending on where the final t/p point is (usually a weekly S1/R1 level), you can either scale in twice or thrice. You can also consider doubling the lot size for the final scale in because that’s when the probability of the trade working out is the highest (can be proven if you back test this on charts).
So if your final t/p is hit, you will a total of 7R profit, where R is the initial risk of the trade. Notice that at each stage of the trade, when you scale in, your total risk is only 1R. so essentially you have a 7:1 RR ratio for this trade. And trust me, these patterns work out more than half the time (perhaps closer to 2/3 or more of the time).
Another way you can scale in is using candlestick patterns, for example pin-bars that form along the way as entry points and shfit stops up for all positions every time a new entry is made. To me scaling in is clearly superior to scaling out because you are limiting your down-side risk but allowing for maximum profit. Scaling on starts out with 3R risk, and we all know that trades are more likely to reverse early on than later.
A key warning here would be to plan your scaling in beforehand, meaning you know before you enter the trade what your final t/p is going to be and how many times you want to scale in. Do NOT change your plan halfway during the trade, you will be emotional and things will not be in your favour.
All the best!
well im short JPY pairs so that settles it. But my favorite setup for the week is explained below. CLICKfor larger image (advised) - #EURGBP Daily:
A shooting star at the top of a rising wedge is a good signal to short any pair. It is strong enough to achieve your first target. But for the 2nd and 3rd targets, more confirmation is required. (May be I am more conservative). If the Monday candle end up as bearish and if the close is below at least middle of the Thursday candle, we will get an evening star which is a strong bearish pattern. I am just waiting for such a formation.
This month, So far I didn’t spot any nice set ups and still waiting for set ups suiting to my rules to gear up. At present I am watching AUDUSD and EURGBP for some good opportunities and my setups are almost same as Kwonkicker’s posts as we can see in the previous posts.
Thanks for your input Bijoy. From this morning’s open it does not seem that a shooting star will materialise on the daily NZDJPY. I will be moving on to look at other pairs for this week. Good luck and all the best friends!