To the topside, bulls will be watching the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements of the 2021-2022 pullback around $48,500 and $57,400 as logical resistance levels, with little above those areas and the all-time record high near $69,000.
By :Matt Weller CFA, CMT, Head of Market Research
This is an excerpt from our full Bitcoin 2024 Outlook report, one of nine detailed reports about what to expect in the coming year. Click the banner at the bottom to download the full report.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – BTC/USD Weekly Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX
Turning our attention to the weekly chart of Bitcoin, we can see that 2023’s bullish move has almost completely retraced the 2022 drop as of writing in mid-December. The cryptocurrency is currently in overbought territory per the 14-week RSI, signalling the potential for a near-term pullback, but as long as prices remain above previous-resistance-turned-support at $32K and the rising 50-week EMA near $30K, Bitcoin bulls will remain in control.
To the topside, bulls will be watching the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements of the 2021-2022 pullback around $48,500 and $57,400 as logical resistance levels, with little above those areas and the all-time record high near $69,000.
Between entering the most bullish period of its 4-year halving to the relative lack of supply and fundamental catalysts like a US ETF and pivot to expansionary monetary policy, there are plenty of reasons for Bitcoin bulls to be excited for 2024. As always, that optimistic outlook has to be balanced against the elevated risk of regulation, fraud, and hacks inherent with a nascent asset class.
Proponents of cryptoassets like to say that Bitcoin and its ilk are “speedrunning financial history,” making all the mistakes but realizing the ultimate success of other financial assets on an ultra-compressed timeline. For many traders in traditional financial markets, it may feel unbelievably quick for an asset to go from the depths of a bear market and utter despondency at the start of 2023 to the middle of a raging bull market in 2024, but for Bitcoin, that would just be par for the course.
What are the major fundamental storylines for Bitcoin traders to watch next year? What about the impact of the Bitcoin Halvening? See our full guide to explore these themes and more!
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