ISIS Next Target – Saudi Arabia? Saudi Arabia may have just unleashed it’s own Frankenstein monster – on itself. For a while now, the unconfirmed rumours are that the Saudis have been the chief supporters of ISIS. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and others have long said, “ISIS has been a Saudi project.”
With ISIS now controlling significant portions of Iraq and Syria, the US faces a threat potentially more grave than Saddam and al-Qaeda combined. Because ISIS is a Sunni organization fighting against Shiite governments in Syria and Iraq, the governments of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have been largely silent even though ISIS represents a threat to their economies as well as their respective regimes. Much of the financial support for ISIS comes from individuals in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The Kuwait banking system is a sieve that funnels funds to the organization.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been named the caliph head of state and theocratic absolute monarch of the self-proclaimed Islamic State. The ISIS leader, though extremely brutal, has been though to be savvy in his strategic thinking. In July 2013, he earned a master’s degree and a PhD in Islamic studies from the Islamic University of Baghdad. He has shown to have extraordinary leadership qualities, even to the point of running his organisation like any modern corporation – click here. The ISIS leader, al-Baghdadi, is ideologically lead, brutal, self-aggrandizing, strategically smart and for sure has expansionist ideas. If we assume this, where is ISIS headed?
Here is what I think al-Baghdadi is up to – if no one stops him. First he will not directly take the fight north or east, to the Shia (Iran and southern Iraq) or NATO (Turkey) countries directly. There is no need to face massive armies that can easily defeat him today. The Kurds were an easy target as they are largely alone in terms of other countries that support them in the region. His goal is to first take control of all the Sunni areas he can, where there is little defense. He will bypass Baghdad and southern Iraq for now. He will continue to do some terrorism for recruitment purposes and scare away any journalists or CIA operatives internally, but will stop short of causing a Western power invasion, if possible.
Watch for ISIS to head southwest, around the Shia areas of Iraq, to the borders of Jordan and Saudi Arabia (see thumbnail). Consolidating power in Sunni areas via threats and capitalizing on some Sunni pride to build the ideological caliphate al-Baghdadi seeks. Yes, some Islamic Sunnis do support ISIS, even accepting some of the brutality, in an effort to get back at the West for decades of what they feel is oppression.
Once al-Baghdadi consolidates and builds a bigger fighting force, from captured US military equipment, he will set his eyes on destabilizing Jordan and Saudi Arabia, with Saudi Arabia being the biggest prize. With this target, he could control 10% of the worlds Oil supplies and capture even more sophisticated US military hardware. This is the prize he seeks. A battle is brewing, and al-Baghdadi needs to move quickly and use the tactic of terror, speed and surprise. Saudi Arabian leaders have grown fat with the riches of Oil and are no match for ideological fighters of the ISIS. Yes Saudi Arabia have built the monster that will consume themselves (or perhaps there are internal folks to Saudi Arabia that are engineering this effort from the inside). Another inside job?
Meanwhile could ISIS open another front in Asia? Rumours are already swirling about groups in Myanmar and Indonesia. Other reports have western folks even being recruited, to perform terrorist attacks in their respective countries. A large-scale ISIS incursion into Saudi Arabia seems unlikely (for now), but the threat of battle-hardened fighters making their way into the kingdom to attack from inside is very real. In some cases they already have, as the Saudi Interior Ministry reported in May it had discovered an ISIS cell of 62 members inside the country, most of them Saudis, according to Al Monitor.
The West’s response? Obviously al-Baghdadi is their number one drone target today. To root out ISIS, they will need boots on the ground, or kill a lot of innocent people from the air, risking destabilizing even more the region. A tough decision. It is clear the ISIS has gotten the attention of the world and we shall see what happens. I don’t have to tell you what would happen to the Oil market and other markets, if this unthinkable scenario occurs.
Blue Point Trading, William Thompson