This is exactly what has got me in trouble feeling like I am in there fighting right along with the Bulls and Bears and losing track of the bigger picture.
I am trying to plan my trade by more the what is happening now on a short time frame.
I need a lot more practice understanding how the PA moves I have been mostly watching PA rather then trading lately and am getting a better perspective on it.
So maybe there is hope because I will not surrender.
But you would have a larger drawdown because of larger S/L. If you incorporate that in risking 1-2% or less of capital base you might stretch it without sufficent capital base in your account.
Or you could simply exit the trade at a retrace and get back in after the turn.
That would require to get up @night. So it’s not set and forget anymore. Loads of pips without active trade management…under present market conditions…highly unlikely.
Dont suppose it makes any difference really… I have just been using the hedge so long and psycologically if I’m hedging I still feel in the trade. :rolleyes:
The psychology of larger TF trades is an entirely different matter compared to lower TFs in my experience. If you haven’t covered that aspect it’s very demanding and the risk of overextending yourself is more than a possibility. Also tinkering with the trade because of psychological factors is a danger also.
You can easily get hammered if you haven’t prepared yourself. Just have a look in some of the threads on this board how some “noobie” people react and how it affects them as soon as 2,3,4 trades on longer TF go bad. They start tinkering because their confidence is hurt or wasn’t there in the first place.
Aha…well there’s the thing, I wouldn’t be trading 1% of account trades on the longer TF trades. I believe we had this discussion on another thread saying the 1% of account was based on a 10 pip stop loss? Now whilst it might approach this in the 5/15min trades (av. 20ish SL usually the nearest wick), I wouldn’t have the same trade size on a Daily TF trade.
So a 20pip loss on the 5min chart = the same in monetary terms as a 100pip loss on the longer TFs (but that also means a 100pip gain is only the equivalent od an extra 20pip trade on the shorter TFs).
I hear what your saying and it makes perfect sense.
On the daily TF trades the size of stop loss is certainly an issue. But I dont use a SL in the conventional way. Normally you enter a trade and set your stop loss. If it gets hit your down ‘X’ pips and you lose the trade. But how many times have you seen your SL get hit and then PA reverses?
When entering the daily I set an automatic SL of 50 pips just in case something unexpected happens. But I have no intention of letting the trade go to minus 50 pips.
When in front of the monitors I will track PA if it goes into a retrace I hedge and close the SL. When PA returns to overall direction I lift the hedge and drop back in the 50 pip SL (again just in case).
When the trade is up 50 pips I move the SL to BE and progessively in the direction of the trade. Again when in front of the monitors if PA retraces I hedge and lift on its turn.
Ok fairly straight forward there. Now when I cant be in front of the monitors there are various ways to go. 1) I can simply hedge and forget the trade until I can be in front of the monitors and re-enter when 1h boll says its prudent. 2) I could set a big SL and hope it doesnt get hit… not tempting. 3) I could look to PA and figure the acceptable range for the trade to breath and set a hedge outside it. If triggered it acts as a SL with a difference. The trade is still active and not closed and set a SL back inside my original trade range to cansel the hedge. If I am lucky I next look at the monitors and see that PA has gone further into my hedge than I thought… great now I can wait for PA to return to normal service and harvest evem more pips. If I missed the fall back no matter my hedge SL will trigger and I’m back on course with minimal loss of pips.
Not a chance in the UK of SL, TP or hedging being banned! In the 80’s the UK made big efforts to once again become the trading capitol of the world (it used to be… Sterling was king until the Dollar took over as lead currency). I wont bore you with the stats but London is by far the largest financial trading center… ok just one 35% of all daily worldwide FX transactions go through London.
Whew!! just went back and reread all pages of this thread:eek:!!! Thanks again all who have shared there experiences and knowledge. The help is invaluable…especially to a newbie like myself! Have a great weekend!
Wish I live somewhere other than the West coast of the US…tough trading hours:(
Anyone who reads through 1900 posts has the metal to see it through. Interesting to note that this thread has 35,000 plus hits but only perhaps four or five regular posters and tops fifteen posters in total.
When SanMiguel and I started this thread I think we both hoped for more people to contribute to the thread… good, bad, indifferent ideas and lets mull them over. Otherwise whats the point… we may have just as well PM’d each other.
Every time I have an moment when I gain a new understanding of a concept I see my account go down a little as I try to figure it out:o. I should really stop reading post. But I have discovered for me a little money on the line makes the studying more productive in the long run.
As far as trading went for me this week I did ok I spent allot of time looking at some losing trades. Some had valid signal but just went the other way. Some were just bad to begin with I can see I need to concentrate on patience and discipline. I kept the 20:1 off my charts as I have a pretty good idea where it would be and I don’t like a cluttered up chart.
Setting a hedge outside acceptable range would mean an estimate of average volatility. Would it not…?
Increased volatility for whatever reason with extended spikes would very quickly knock out that hedge if set with S/L and the remaining retrace wouldn’t be covered with that hedge. No…?
Also a parobolic move in the opposite direction of your set hedge would be a problem. No…?
While i appreciate your great contribution to this forum,i think you need to tone your criticism of newbie down a bit.New folks in this are human beings and they derserve respect.
I am absolutely sure that you were once a newbie to forex or whatever you know.You were not born with it.Newbies need support and direction to help them get through that stage not to ridicule them because they are new or because they make mistake that are not uncommon.Everyone of us has blind spot,including you.
.I just dont cherish the way you castigate newbie in this thread.
Thank you.
John.
I appreciate the honesty from Cas. Its my money at risk and I don’t need any hand holding or encouragement If I am being a dumba** I want to know!!
By the way
The psychology of larger TF trades is an entirely different matter compared to lower TFs in my experience. If you haven’t covered that aspect it’s very demanding and the risk of overextending yourself is more than a possibility. Also tinkering with the trade because of psychological factors is a danger also.
You can easily get hammered if you haven’t prepared yourself. Just have a look in some of the threads on this board how some “noobie” people react and how it affects them as soon as 2,3,4 trades on longer TF go bad. They start tinkering because their confidence is hurt or wasn’t there in the first place.
This describes what happens to me when I attempt a longer term trade. I recognize this So for now I will stay away from them.
Hehe John… I wouldnt get to hung up on CAS… shes a hard ass! … its just her style, I dont think she means anything by it.
I noticed several months ago her posting style was abrasive and dont think she reserves her wroth exclusively for newbs… shes had a pop at both SanMiguel and me. I reckon shes trading in San Quinton on a life stretch. :D:D:D
Ah hmm… after my last post I hesitate to venture a reply.
Try as I might I havn’t yet learned to walk on water. I still get hit for an out of the blue PA directional move I havn’t factored in. So when I can’t be in front of the monitors its either 1 or 3. I would be very interested on your take of the same set up CAS.
My main issue with the overnight hedge is loss of pips when you can’t be around to monitor the trade. For example you have a long running SELL on and overnight you hedge it by BUYING. PA continues to move south but you are wasting pips with your BUY hedge at this stage aren’t you?
I think we were talking before about the overnight SL size for the 1hr crossover trades of which there were a couple of options:
trail by outer 1hr bollinger
trail by middle bollinger on the 1hr
trail by a set SL figure
trail by the average price over the last 24hr period
Obviously this is directed at the 1hr trades rather than long term Daily/4hr but a similar principle could apply to those TFs. The average price trail is designed to follow strong trending periods (ie it’s one of the ichimoku MA lines) but then so are a range of the MAs, 20, 50, etc.
You are getting that nanny part mixed up with showing respect.
I am absolutely sure that you were once a newbie to forex or whatever you know. You were not born with it.
That’s right.
I worked hard for where I am now. And I wouldn’t be there where I am now and survived if I would have listened to 99% of people trying to tell me how to go about it, what to do, how to think and what to say
It’s called single mindedness.
And I have no intention whatsoever to change that and risking to go under with my trading.
Newbies need support and direction to help them get through that stage not to ridicule them because they are new or because they make mistake that are not uncommon.
This trading business is [B]all about risk[/B].
Taking risks requires taking responsibility for exposing yourself to that risk taken in the first place.
In order to do that you need to get accustomed to your [B]own personal risk profile and trade tolerances[/B] first before excecuting [B]any[/B] trade.
Might think about that one for a second before throwing nanny vocabulary around.
Everyone of us has blind spot,including you.
Yes. My tolerance level for irresponsibility is very low and complaining about it afterwards.
I just dont cherish the way you castigate newbie in this thread.
Calling it without the sugar coating might not suit you. That’s your choice but not my problem.
I noticed several months ago her posting style was abrasive and dont think she reserves her wroth exclusively for newbs… shes had a pop at both SanMiguel and me.
Didn’t leave a trail…did it…? Quite enjoyed that one.
I reckon shes trading in San Quinton on a life stretch. :D:D:D
I look @PA two different ways. Horizontal and diagonal.
Horizontal = S&R zone and range
Diagonal = time of the day
The reason being that the currencies are very time-sensitive, meaning that they will come under early pressure because the Dollar, which has come under pressure during the day session often will mount rallies overnight.
That 2:30am EST is when we’ll see volatility in the foreign currencies right before Euro markets open.
If the Euro markets can not open ahead of their own futures, you will see the rallies in the Pounds and the Euros that occur during the prior will subsequently pull back half hour.
The clock in overnight trade is as important as the news flows because price action occurs around [U]certain[/U] times consistently.
At the openings and closings of the Asian and Euro markets that’s when the markets get most volatile.
By looking @it that way I can narrow PA down and can set hedges and/or OCOorders more accurately according to the time-sensitivity of pairs I trade when I am away from the screen.
Hedge and OCOorders are flexible. You can use them any way you like.
The range of GU for example is in between .1640 to .1680 @present. Let’s say I take a GU BUY trade @.1658 tonight because of a breakout. I would set a SL below major S&R area…about 60 pips S/L. PA moves up and I would adjust S/L and hedge retracements. Same as you do. When I am planning to go away from my screen I would look @[B]the range during the time[/B] I would be away and set my OCOorders accordingly with defined T/P and S/L for that range I am covering during that specific time. Because those OCOorders have T/P and S/L set I don’t have to do anything. I can just let the original trade go it’s course because I cover the area like an umbrella and sweep as many pips as possible. I don’t get all of them…but the majority.
This strategy does not account for parabolic moves. I haven’t found anything yet to cover that.
Loads of pips without active trade management…under present market conditions…highly unlikely.
