Already placed a long on EU at 1.4333. I’ll wait and see on GU as major support is at 1.6070.
Yes you could be right… I was looking at daily TF… just scaled in on 1h and 1.61 looks likely. TP1 1.6183?
RC - still thinking along these lines? Other than the major support, the only other indicators I see that possibly show a reverse are “overbought” status and candle on lower BB…yet mid BB is down.
On a side note, with all of your free time that is soon to come (sun, vino, etc), love to see you write a short “how to” manual. Would be ashame to hve all that knowledge in your head no be shared :-)!
[B]Cancel post due to poor eye sight. Sorry, I missed a wick![/B] :o
I’ve been reading John Bollinger’s book, it’s a good read, he is a smart guy and a damn good writer! I found his concept on relative high/low vs absolute high/low interesting. Today I see a good example and thought it would be worth sharing.
[I]He writes” An ideal “W” is a momentum low that occurs outside the lower Bollinger Band, followed by a price low inside the lower band. Even if the final price low has driven to a new absolute low, it is not a new low on a relative basis. Therefore the ensuing rally can be acted upon… “[/I]
Today’s daily GBP/USD printed a good example of this concept. Take a look at the daily GBP/USD with just the 20:2 bolls.
Dec 9th printed a long wick way outside the lower 20:2 band around 1.6165 making a new relative low.
Today we printed a new absolute low around 1.6080. But… just lightly touching the lower band therefore not setting a new relative low. I think it’s an interesting concept when we’re looking for lower lows or higher highs for reversals
PS hope my explanation makes some sense, sorry I write like smelly dog $HIT!
There’s an alternative concept to that which is comparing price that has exceeded the 20:2 and then trading candles that come close to it but don’t quite touch and don’t make new lows.
The absolute new low (1.6080ish) should be a concern I reckon.
Sorry for the ignorance, but what am I doing with these 4 LWMA’s?
Yep its been pretty much down. As I see it its just another example of trading the daily TF and hedging the 1h. Until I see a flat bottom/ step across on the daily TF it just not worth considering taking an oposite/ counter trade. Once in on the daily I’ll work the 1h TF. This is particularly relevant when looking at EU… 750 pips down and perhaps 100 up. 
Dunno… what are you doing with them? 
Basic premise is enter when all the LWMA’s line up in the direction of PA. I dont use four but three (3/6/9). Plus only works well on shorter TF charts <1h.
SanMiguel,
I’m sorry, for some reason earlier in the day it seems I didn’t see the wick that broke the lower daily 20:2 band and thought it only lightly touched the band. Either dirty glasses, not enough sleep or too much fun skiing this past Wednesday - caught some great snow! So my John Bollinger - relative high/low vs absolute high/low - example was wrong, both Dec 9th & Dec 17th wicks broke the lower daily band. But I’m enjoying his book in spite of my poor eye sight!
20:20 vision… so many levels. :D:D
PA has broken the 2:1 on the daily but not up turned yet… I’m in.
Me too but I’m on the 1h and trading hope more than the PA , seems to be running flat and I’m looking for a lucky break north.
RC,
You have not answered my question sent on e-mail to you.
Entered on the daily 2:1. Like EU not sure on GU. But both in play.
Robert,
Do you ever sleep? Seems like you’re on 24/5! I keep adding 5 hours to US EST and starting to realize you must be both a night owl & early bird! LOL
Nope not really… it boils down to two things. Have you really got a finger on the pulse or not?
FX is dynamic… need to keep an eye on it at all times. I trade the daily… new candle… is PA inside the 2:1? Is 2:1 outside the 5:1? I think yes… I’m long for now.
1h looks good and 4h getting better as well!
RC,
Back some time ago you said you preferred to see two long wicks outside the bands on the daily for a reversal. Is the wick on Dec 9th close enough or would you be more comfortable with something closer?
Depends on the angle of the 5:1 boll but generally speaking I would wait for a 2:1 flat top/botton outside the 5:1 on the daily and enter. A new daily candle will almost always break one way over the day with the above criteria.
[B]Thanks! [/B]
I got in at 1.6152 conveniently located right near the flat bottom of the daily 2:1. I have my stop set at BE, so I’ll wait and see where it goes!
1h TF still showing a retrace up on 5:1 & 10:1 boll on both EU & GU. 100 ma at 1.45 on EU and 1.6250 on GU so possibly a little room yet to the upside longer term. But EU resistance at 1.4404 currently holding. GU cant decide which side of 1.6213 resistance line it wants to be on.
Last night I ended up closing +40 before hitting the hay. This morning, through my one good eye GU looks good going north, but don’t know if I’ll see that later today or have to wait for next week. 
This morning I’ve dropped down to the 15m and waiting to see what the players in the big apple will give us!
Just heard on CNBC it’s a quad witching day. :eek: