hellogoodbye4201,
What was your analyst before the trade? All I’ve seen are the belief that this is going down. The trend is pointing down and the pair is in a consolidation period. Even if it does go to the top bols line what is the potential profit? I see this as an ill advised trade. Just my take on things.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
SanMiguel,
Tick charts? Have you heard of the NYSE? Stocks not currencies. It would be nice but don’t bet on it ever becoming a reality. It would make it harder to steal. Even Level II data streams don’t catch it.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
Yeah, I trade them every day including the S&P - charts right down to ticks. My broker has them all anyway. Lows and highs must be recorded prices or you can argue that it has not been filled correctly.
I agree that what they do do is manipulate the price such that they take out stops or prevent options from triggering but that’s part of the game. So called pump and dump strategies, no different to forex - that’s why swing trading can take a while to get used to 
Another professional is talking.Let the wise take heed.
I love this write up.
SanMiguel,
I stand corrected, tick charts exist today on the stock market. Since I’ve shunned trading stocks since 2007 I haven’t bothered to look at them. I day traded on the stock market for many years but got tired of the game they were playing with the retail trade having one arm tied behind their back. They kept slapping my hand for making money yet Wall Street does it with immunity. I turned to the forex and have never looked back.
Even with the tick chart it wouldn’t explain a micro second move as the low of the day would still show say $33.50 yet your stock was gobbled up at a $28.00. stop loss. Go figure. It’s very simple answer.
A big buyer wanted 100,000 shares or maybe 500,000 shares or more. You’re sitting there with only a few thousand with a stop loss set for catastrophic loss protection. You make the trade late in the day and goto bed that night without a clue of the impending doom. The next day you log onto you computer late at night as you had other business issues during the day. You check your stocks and see the stock value moved up to $37.50 making you a nice profit. But wait your stock has been sold and your account shows a loss. WTF. It was sold at $28.00 yet the low of the day shows only $33.50. That was the last time I ever used a stop loss and shortly thereafter quit trading stocks as they slapped me with a penalty.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
Hellogoodbye4201,
I hope that trade was on a demo. It didn’t turn out very well for a long trade.
Now ask yourself what did I do wrong? What were the expert’s comments about the days trading? What was you own analysis if you bothered to do one? As I stated before there were many things going against the trade before you made the trade. I’m not picking on you and I thank you for your post. One brave person’s post can help thousands of traders and keep them from the making the same mistake.
Now let’s review the trade.
Currency Pair = EURUSD
Purchased Long at 1.4287
Subsequent High at 1.4294 at 40 minutes = 7 pip gain
Subsequent Low at 1.4187 at 1 hour 25 minutes = 100 pip loss
Commissions are not calculated.
Notes:
Analyst predictions:
EUR = price shows a Bearish Flag and possibly with all the economic bad news going as far down to support level of $1.425 and possibly all the way to $1.38 to 50% Fib Line.
USD = price rises due to influx of foreign investors which is due to Europe and Japan’s demise.
This was all news before the trade which was why I warned against it. We only learn by our mistakes and I for one don’t wish to make anymore. I hope you understand and it helps the next time.
Attached is the chart of the trade taken at M5. I’ve added a few indicators to clarify the trade’s good and bad side. The Linear Regression Channel shows the bad side the best as you can readily see the PA is in no-mans land and is not in a good position to go “Long”. The LRC is in a sharp angle down with the PA above the centerline which leaves little room to move up without breaking through the channel. This does happen but not with bad news.
The bottom panel shows the DSS(Red) with a EMA-3(Aqua), CCI(Blue) and DPO(Green). The best way to use it is a DSS/DPO combination with the CCI as an early warning signal. If all three arrive below 20 or above 80 it tells you to buy or sell.
The middle panel shows the Snake which is a fairly good continuation of trend signal as well as a fair buy and sell signal.
Even without reading the news and making an analysis this doesn’t look like a good buy but as you can see it shows strong reason to short. This coupled with a good break-out indicator would pin point the exact bar to make the “Short”. I had one on this but it gets a little busy on the chart so I deleted it for clarity.
The second attachment is the H4 chart which again does not show a buy long signal. If you’re only looking at the H4 then that is another mistake. I look at the H1, and M15 for direction of shorter term trends and I actually make all buys on the M1. The general news was bad enough to circumvent any upper TF from completing a move to support or resistance as PA was already heading down to support on the Daily as well as the Weekly.
When you’re hell bent to trade either demo or with live account its important to treat it as if your life depended on the outcome. Hap hazard thinking will lose you a ton of money. Plan your trade and trade your plan. If your plan fails then play detective and find out what you did wrong and record the results. You will find you will make the same mistakes over and over before it hits you between the eyes.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
Took SM’s advise and had more than a ‘ties’ worth of beer over the weekend and chilled out. Merchantprince thanks for the tip on ‘iggy button’ we old timers. :rolleyes: JonnyBsmart nice to see you back from a long absense and posting your usual upbeat take on the markets. 
I have dropped back down to the shorter TF charts 5m, 15m 1h & 4h. Obviously it helps to have all TF charts up at once for the reasons we have previously gone over i.e. a better understanding of PA across short, medium and longer time and significant S/R. But how best to trade them?
Putting up a 20:2 bollinger on all TF charts helps. We have also tried 20:1 & 20:3 with varying degrees of sucess. But if you put up a 20:2 standard and a high/low 20:2 boll you get three distinct areas. Looking at the 4h TF chart tells us longer term sentiment is bearish trading in the mid to low area. Looking at the 1h chart tells us that mid term PA sentiment is bearish and ranging in the 20:2 lower boll band (standard/high/low). For shorter TF trades obviously the trades should be short.
Early this morning I was trading the 5m chart as volatilty was low. Since the London open I have moved up to the 15m chart. I have taken three trades so far looking to the 1h chart for a lead (break of the three lower 20:2 bolls) then placing the short trade in the upper 20:2 bolls on the 15m chart.
Might need to expand to 200-500%
Beer is good
So, you are waiting for the lower bolls to break on the higher TFs - did I get that correctly and then trading short on the lower TFs?
Using the boll bands to confirm breaks to the lower side?
Not sure if I understood that correctly.
PA on the 1h TF chart was ranging in the lower three 20:2 bolls (standard, high & low). Waited for PA to step up outside the lower bolls and touch the bottom center bolls of the three and wick. This put PA into the upper bolls on the 15m and entered a short. Did this twice today for 67 pips (about two 20 min trades).
In fairness I have been trying these three 20:2 bolls for a dew days now with very good stats 90% and greater win ratio. Even the trades that break my way and fall back have been closed at BE. I just take a quick look at the longer TF charts for a feel of where PA is in relation to the bigger picture and volatility. Then focus on the 5m or 15m (dependant on volatility) for shotrish trades typically less than 30 mins for 15-20 pips and out. Taken a leaf out of my sons book whos been doing this set up and trade for the last three years with outstanding results… sat next to me last night and took five strait winning trades on the 15m doing exactly as above. Been an eye opener!
Scaled back the pips for the last two trades as PA is now in a tight range. Been using the 5m TF chart and taking shorts when PA steps into the upper three bolls for 7-10 pips.
So, you are using the bolls to indicate a trend direction, ie down and then entering a short on the lower TFs when the lower TF says it is overbought.
Yes I looked at the overall direction of PA on the 4h and 1h early this morning to determin likely overall direction i.e. today short (center boll direction/ angle).
Then dropped down to the 5m and 15m charts for possible trades. Early this morning volatility was low so traded the 5m chart. London open more volatility so switched up to 15m. Trades only short when PA in the upper three 20:2 bolls and out at centre bolls.
After trading the daily its been a breath of fresh air… no more long hour trades and risk exposure. Just short high probability set up and trades and out.
Been setting trade size to 0.5% of account bal and 20 pip SL (20 pips = 1% account exposure per trade) I can live with that.
So you’re not trading off the Daily anymore? And I was just going to ask you about your 2:1 daily bollinger and how I might incorporate it into Rui’s MMTT system.
well ya it would have been a demo but it doesnt matter as the LWMAs never confirmed the entry, currently still waiting and ty for this lengthy reply 
The 2:1 and the MMTT do give similar signals. I have been using MMTT to pick pairs and direction and BB on shorter time frames to help me decide when to close a trade.
I havent spent time in the MMTT thread but understand hes using the daily and a 2 EMA?
If you put up a 2:1 boll on the daily you will see that it flat tops/bottoms on the solid body of the candles. So after a wick and PA steps back into the 2:1 your on fairly solid ground. Might also like to put up a high/low 2 LWMA to mark the tops and bottoms of wicks/ PA daily range. For more pips you could trade the wick on the daily inside the 2 LWMA (wicks on the daily can be 100 pips). The 2 high/ low LWMA will mark the upper and lower current limits of PA.
Right hand chart (daily GU). Expand to 500% for a detailed view of how High/Low LWMA marks the average daily range and how the 2:1 boll reacts within it.
Might also like to put up a high/low 2 LWMA to mark the tops and bottoms of wicks/ PA daily range. For more pips you could trade the wick on the daily inside the 2 LWMA (wicks on the daily can be 100 pips). The 2 high/ low LWMA will mark the upper and lower current limits of PA.
RC this is pretty close to MMTT 2MAs on the daily high and low when PA steps out side the MAs drop down to a lower time frame and watch for a reversal.
Ok, the way I understood your first post was trading bollinger expansions.
ie when price is heading downwards, moves outside the boll and stays hugging the boll (what I call the SELL ZONE from that article), you then enter short on a retrace on the lower TFs.
This is a slightly different concept to the OB/OS scenarios I think as the higher TF is indicating OS but trending down, therefore you still enter short rather than waiting for a buy.
…or have I misunderstood?
Yeah, the 2-period MAs are used on both the Daily and 5m charts (for the entries). His system looks like it’s fun, easy and pretty profitable if you’ve been following his results at all.
I was looking at your Daily setups just for that flat top/bottom and wick on the 2:1 to see what the overall trend for the day might be. I think this information would compliment the MMTT system nicely.
Sounds a pretty good system but gonna stick with this 5m and 15m TF trend scalping for the rest of the week and see how it pans out. Ten trades today:
0 (BE)
Total 91 pips for the day. There might be something to this.
Sorry SM its difficult to explain by post.
No just took the overall general direction of PA from the longer TF’s 1h & 4h. Then switched to 5m & 15m TF’s and only took shorts when PA in the upper boll band 20:2 (standard/ High/ Low) and traded to center bolls. Used 2 LWMA (high/ Low) to mark outer edges of PA tunnel. Small pip trades during low volume on the 5m TF (6-10 pips) and London open on 15m TF (10-25 pips).