Been a pretty slow day due to US holiday.
Speaking of which - are you still following your 1 hr strat?
I’m still here 
short G/U right now hoping for a few pips on a correction?/retrace did I miss a news print? that was a big bull move. nice catch TalonD.
I mentioned a position I am in so…
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading
:D:D
catching that was just luck I’ll have to admit. Still ‘trying’ to follow the 1h. RC says it’s good but I have the usual trouble with a MA crossover strat. Having a day job Ive about decided that even 1h is too fast, I miss signals. so looking more to daily tf. Kind of like what Rui has on the mmtt thread. And looking at all these bollingers too. Maybe a case of too little butter spread over too much bread.
miscalculated my pips earlier I think, more like about 70 of em.
Are you going to monitor a few more pairs on the Daily TF or still concentrate on cable?
I have to admit I only use intraday bollingers on EU and GU. I have a few other charts up (EG, AU, GJ, EJ, UC, UJ) but only on Daily TF and I’m simply looking for OB/OS and a nice candle pattern like a hanging man/hammer (long wick).
Do you remember that post a while back about the BUY ZONE and SELL ZONE? Have you tried something like that but on the 4hr? It relies getting in on a trade on the first retrace as bollinger bands are expanding and PA doesn’t move back below the 20:1. You can sometimes see picture perfect bounces with those bolls loaded up on the smaller TFs.
Can you tell I’m in US timezone at present 
Currently in Montreal.
I don’t remember that post right off. Will have to search for it. Eastern time zone for me too. I hadn’t really looked at other pairs till I started following the mmtt thread, now I have lots of pairs up. I was just thinking if you are going to look at more than just one pair then it would be best to make a list of the pairs that have the least amount of correlation and avoid those that have a strong correlation.
You can’t go far wrong if you just trade the majors.
It was kind of a mix of the 1hr strat and its own one, you get in on the trade later once a trend is defined (trend defined by PA staying within the 20:3 and 20:1 bands and not retracing lower than the 20:1. When PA finally closes outside of the 20:1 with more than 50% of the candle then that’s the exit signal).
Here we go…just found the saved link: Using Bollinger Band “Bands” To Gauge Trends
Also, one on inside days for your Daily charts: Inside Day Bollinger Band Turn Trade
I have installed the indicator to MT4 for your LWMA crossover (it sends an SMS to my phone when the 9 crosses over), but have been in Florida the past week and still have not been actively trading.
I would love to learn Rui’s system, but 30+ pages later and I’m still trying to get someone to explain it in clear English, without just throwing up some charts and saying “here it is”. I really must be slow. :o
Shrik,
I don’t see a short here at all. Unless I’m missing something my chart shows the PA is consolidating right now and if the GU heads down below the lower band I’d be looking for a sharp move up to beyond the 1.65 and eventually to 1.67.
The bull move was no surprise actually and was expected. It topped out below 1.65 due to the news and American holiday. The Brits have things going their way and there isn’t any good news in the states. The only good news is there isn’t any really bad news that we haven’t heard before. The Americans are still not buying anything as they don’t trust the banks or the government. This bad economy isn’t going away anytime soon as the American public has changed forever.
The Brits on the other hand didn’t have all the wide spread bad habits of over spending and are more conservative by nature. The only mistake they made as did the European Union was following the Yanks lead in the financials.
You’ve got to ask yourself where did any of them get their education in finance in the first place. Any economist worth his salt and especially the old timers were writing way back in early summer of 2007 that the financial balloon was about to burst as the numbers were many times worse then the Great crash of 1929. The only thing that was holding everything up was the large amounts of foreign investments into the American stock exchanges hence the mortgage backed securities. It was one big Ponsi scheme and the whole world never had a clue.
I’m no financial wizard but I read a lot and when I read the numbers back in November of 2007 written by an 80 year old economist who did comparison charts of 1929 vs 2007. I sold everything I had in the stock market and waited for the fall. All my friends followed my advice thank the Lord.
Now ask yourself WTF was all the large bank Gurus and the government advisors of the world doing at this time? The greed was so rampant that all they were doing was counting their personal profits and to hell with the investors. They squeezed the golden goose until it died. The American government takes no blame but the fact is they actually orchestrated the whole damn thing by asking the five major investment companies on Wall Street to increase their leverage and passed a law allowing this to happen. This was the Democrats of the Clinton administration and the Bush administration didn’t stop it. Most of the American small investors are out of the stock market for good. The only surge was by big investors and foreign money.
The American financial system is in a mess and not soon to improve. It amazes me the idiots still have their jobs. I even see the dummies couldn’t even make money in the last quarter in the currency market. Go figure.
The only thing that is going to increase the value of the dollar is foreign investors where there country is in worse shape then the US. This won’t last forever as the future is still not very bright here. Higher taxes, high unemployment and stupid government decisions is in our future.
The American people’s past habits and the past kings of spending on credit are dead. The government will now penalize the many for the few who put us in this mess in the first place. We are already the third highest taxed nation in the world next to France and Sweden but with none of the benefits like the 35 hour work week, National health, guaranteed pensions, education, assistance for our mothers and children. The threat of national health and government bailouts will put this country to its knees and will result in our rising to the top of the list of the most taxed nations.
I’m looking for the GBP to keep going higher and $2.10 within a year is not out of the realm of possibilities. Like any currency pair there will be ups and downs but the general trend will be up.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny:)
Reviewing some past and present posts it seems the willingness to trade against the trend is quite prevalent on this thread. It may be because of trading only from the charts and ignoring the fundamentals or just trading to trade. If I’m so inclined which is hardly ever I trade the PA only to the center of the Bols or the linear regression line to limit risk. I would much rather trade a time frame trending with the fundamental trend or trade a different pair that is trending with the trend.
Avoiding risk is always number one with profit a result of good analysis and good decisions. I only gamble at the casino and play only games I have mastered such as BlackJack. If you are so inclined I suggest cutting your risk to 33% of your normal trade amount and selling a third of the total amount the moment you cover the cost of the trade. Another third after profit covers risk and the last third after PA crosses the centerline as outlined above. Understand the top level professional traders don’t countertrend at all if they want to keep their jobs and their margins are much lower then the retail market.
There are many ways to lose money in this market. Limiting risk will help your profits take care of themselves. Even with this in mind the best traders still lose and losses can never be totally eliminated. Those who understand and except this are the five percent of traders who make money and survive.
Which kind of trader are you? The taker of risk looking for every penny of profit thus you are truly a gambler or are you the trader who abhors risk and protects your money by betting only with the odds. Only time and learning makes you a smarter trader. Give yourself and your bank account the time to learn.
I like many have learned the hard way after much loss but was smart enough to stop before all was lost. The experience has made me less reckless. I trade only when I’m confident of the end result. The information is constantly being revised and updated so before the trade an analysis always comes first. If I disagree with a favorite analyst I will most often not make that trade opting to trade another pair or just taking the day off. Losing just isn’t worth the risk.
If you watch the market closely you will generally see a pair take a sideways move when an upcoming news announcement is pending unless the news is pretty much a known factor already.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
To save you searching through 30 pages, In the mmtt thread take a look at my post number 43 that kind of summarizes it. and look at some of the charts in the posts previous to that.
This is partly because bollinger bands identify OB and OS scenarios hence taking counter trend trades. Of course, ina counter trend your target should only be the middle bollinger band…that is the return to normality/equilibrium.
Of course, the safe way to trade it is to take trades on the smaller TFs only in line with the 4hr/Daily.
Question is when you only trade the Daily, what do you take as the trend? You could take the weekly/monthly but that may be too long because of all the intraweek trending situations.
On the whole EU behaves far better than GU and also has more of a percentage link with the $ index - another useful technical analysis tool.
Shrik,
I don’t see a short here at all.
price was not really going anywhere when I wanted to go to bed so I closed out with about 8 pips on my side. The reason I went short was often after a large fast move there is a partial retrace good for 1/3 to 1/2 of the original move. If that is going to happen it usually happens pretty fast. I was hoping to get allot more than 8 pips from a move that was close to 100 pips. The bull move ran out of steam so I went short. It did come back down but way outside of the span of time I am talking about.
setup on E/U 4h i believe
Mike, once again your awesomeness knows no bounds.
That helped really refresh it all for me. I’m using that passage, along with some charts and Shr1k’s contribution at post number 400, to try and put everything into one document.
I’d really like to create a hybrid system that could truly offer trades in both trending and ranging markets. My Frankenstein method would combine R Carters’ Daily entry rules using the 2:1 bolls discussed here, your LWMA 1H crossover along with Rui’s MMTT system to take advantage of as many opportunities as possible.
I’m thinking that would just about do it.
Sounds like that may be worth a new thread. Flesh it out and post it!
i was thinking the same thing
looks like im gonna enter long on E/U at the close of this 4H candle btw this is my first time trading with this bollinger band thing so let me know if my setup is good, im entering the trade based on the candles touching the bottom of the 20:2 bollinger then changing color and heading up along with 2 LWMA close aiming up and either 2 LWMA high/low heading up. ive decided not to use the 2:1 bollinger as i can already see where it would be flat w/o having to use it on my charts and also it looks like it can give some fakeouts, hence the LWMAs to confirm
Shr1k,
You could have made a possible 44 pips on the M5 while I was writing my countertrend warning yesterday but too often they turn out to be head fakes and your trade doesn’t cover the cost. Since the GBPUSD was temporarily stalled I would choose not to trade the pair as it can reverse on a dime. Make no mistake pips can be made but what is the risk?
It’s like the slum landlords of any big city. What is their risk just collecting the rent? I would choose the better part of town to rent to a more reliable and safe clientele. It all comes down to “Do you feel Lucky”. Luck has no place in my repertoire of good trades so why play that game.
When the PA turns after hitting resistance you cannot be sure with any reliability how far down to support it will go before reversing direction. If you make a trade and stay too long your total investment could get wiped out in heart beat. On the other hand if you make a trade with the fundamental trend and you get in the middle of a reversal it’s just a matter of time before it continues in the right direction.
The counter trending PA is all part of the game and are designed by the big money players to make pips in both directions. The key to making a lot of pips for the retail trader is the knowledge and follow the big money.
Since how successful “Big Money” will be on pushing a countertrend move is the only question. The most successful start about an hour before the major opens due to the volume of trades. Likewise these are the most dangerous trades for the retail trader as big money can move the market fast and furious catching the unwary with their pants down around their knees. This is and always was their plan from the beginning and it works to perfection picking the pockets of the unwary. It’s like a license to steal and steal they do. This shocks most newbie traders and few ever understand what happened.:eek:
The stock market plays the same game only much worse. They can and will steal from your pockets and you won’t know what hit you. They can steal from you and never even leave any evidence for you to find out how it happened. The sad truth is its all legal for them to steal your money so they do it everyday and all day long. The only protection you have is NOT using a stop loss as this is their method of obtaining your money. Even a very wide stop loss set 10, 15 even 20 percent below market price is not safe as they can lower the price for one micro second and gobble up your retirement fund.
Any subsequent investigation into what happened to your money will be absolutely fruitless as you can only see the open, close, high and low of the day. Nothing will show you the micro second they took the stock price down 20% for a micro second to steal your money. In thirty years of trading I’ve only seen this written once in a book to educate the public and only a small paragraph was written about the subject. A phone call to your broker will get you no answer or at best a very low voice saying there are things that you don’t understand and I cannot tell you.
So what are your options if you want to play this game and play it well? Only one and only one and that is to learn what game big money is playing and how they play the game. What are “Big Money” induced moves and which are true valuation moves. No chart with indicators will ever tell you what game of the moment is being played but you can guess and hope you’re right. The only thing a chart tells you is some of the game and what has already happened. The more volatile they can make the market the more money they can make and if you are following their lead you will as well.
Playing in the markets can be profitable and also deadly. Make no mistake the retail trade is small fry and the sharks of the financial world are controlling the game and changing the game about every 45 minutes with the bigger games happening every 90 minutes and the biggest every 180 minutes.
Learn and earn and remember we are just along for the ride. Its their game and they make the rules. Go ahead the wolves love you to play.
Johnny
pacino.bmp (42.8 KB)
eh?
It is 2010 right - heard of tick charts?