just to clearify i never took that sort at 1.53
Here is a quick example of a 1 hr GU chart I missed this trade so its hind site but I think its a good example and may be a good entry if it gets back up to the top MA again soon. The blue horizontal line is the high 2 period ma from the daily chart so I would only look for shorts here.
Shr1k
Iām thinking the opposite and looking to go long. LOL! As I see it, all the PA is above the 1H 20ma bolls centerline. Iām staying out today and will wait to see how things look for tomorrows London open.
LOL I am looking for 10 to 20 pip scalps at the second pink circle PA is outside (over) the 2MA from daily down to 5 min to me that says overbought.
LOL Iām looking for it to go long 1000 pips past the MOON!
Wish I had your broker lol, I love the price discreptency. The short at 1.53 would have worked but didnt meet my entry conditions, oh well. The short on sunday was logical but I just dont like trading on sundays :D, also would have grabbed a MAX of 43 pips on the sunday trade, from highest to lowest.
What HLC numbers you deriving your pivots from?
Iāve just checked 2 separate sources & theyāre both 30 odd pips shy of your central pivot, also skewing your R1 out by over 40 pips.
Thatās why I donāt use them.
The only reason I posted was because I read someone elseās comments earlier somwhere else & they happened to quote the 5228 pivot in their post.
This is the main reason why pivots are considered unreliable for analysis purposes on the spot fx. There are far too many different closing times used & spurious levels that traders observe as a basis for calculation.
You might just as well pull out a picture of a clock face & stick a pin anywhere from 1.00 through 12.00 to get your closing number. Price is bound to drop on one of the S1-3 or R1-3 levels at some point during the trading day, whatever numbers you choose to calculate from.
1.5370 may hold if we get that farā¦what with all the election worries and stuff is anyone really going to hold Ā£?
Much depends on the USD of courseā¦
Oh sure, and Futures traders still use them. But then theyāre far more effective because the futures traders are all working from the same hymn sheet.
Iām not disputing that your specific pivot levels have worked today, or that theyāll work again on Thursday or a week next Friday.
Iām sure that people calculating them via one of the the other 2 sources I referenced will also experience sporadic success too if they observe them for long enough, but that doesnāt necessarily afford them reliability or credibility.
It simply means that the law of averages will at some point highlight the fact that price will react on or near one of the support or resistance levels they kick out every day.
One day your calculations will work & the others will be skewed, the next occasion the other pivot calcs will work & yours will be skewed.
I agree, the primary reason Fibs are so popular is because theyāre mentioned regularly when perusing the more popular technical analyst sites & trader blogs etc. However, the Bank research teams generally only refer to Fibonacci levels from the Daily+ charts, or the real big swing levels, which can be seen occasionally from maybe a 4 or 8 hour chart frame. Yet if you browse the forums, youāll see guys posting up Fib levels on charts as low as 15 minute time frames.
Iām not suggesting the Bank traders are correct & everyone else is wrong, but I think people get a little over excited & carried away by these technical add ons.
I think fibs have some relevance on intraday price movements but maybe not the exact price levels as use don say Daily charts. I regularly use fibs intraday but itās a guide as to the strength of a move. Each move has an inherent amount of the old fear and greed syndrome for which a fib level is a surprisingly good measure but I use them along the way of the trade rather than the sole entry for a trade itself. It helps me fight the inner āoh my god itās retracingā thoughtsā¦
The self fulfilling indicatorā¦well maybe at least thatās the internet theory but can every indicator be self fulfilling all at similar times - maybe thatās wnhy price never moves in a straight line
Robert,
Do you know the best way to handle GAPs when they occur in the chart?
I need help on this.
Thank you,
Headmaster.
I donāt think persuing that avenue would make you very popular on here, lol.
Better to simply acknowledge it, accept itās the route of choice for the majority of people on these sites & keep a low profile.
Iāve found that trying to open up & put the forth that type of alternative view only serves to stir up a hornets nest of intense reactions.
I think youāll find there are far more relevant influences at work out there most days (commercial activity being one major weight) than worrying about the relevance or accuracy of indicators. A major dump & spread of merger & acquisition dough onto the market will render your indicators completely impotent, as will an exchange or two of large sized bundles due to a commercial interest.
Of course, that wonāt affect the balance every day, but itās certainly regular enough to upset the apple cart of a stack of heavily biased technical indicator led systems.
RC,
Just saw this now and your chart. have question.What is MVA in the chart? where can i find it in the MT4?
Headmaster.
SanMiguel,
Iām using the 1H set-up that RC just posted. But Iām also watching the 50:1 & 50:2 bolls and the PA looks like last weekās up move could continue. Price is above the 20ma & sitting around the 50:1 upper band. Iāll wait and look for a retrace back down to the 20ma and see where she goes!
Yeah.Thank you.I got it now.
During the open of the Asian session the PA bounced off the 20ma bolls centerline. So I went long at 1.5267 with a 30pip stop and went off to bed.:mad:
Added: I should have paid more attention to the short 5 & 10 moving averages. :o
Iām on the US East Coast and struggle with the balance between trading the London open and having a normal life! LOL
Well, I am in from 1.5240 following the retrace after the MAs crossed.
No intention to get out yet (red arrow). My chart hrs are GMT so where it says 0700 is actually 0800 UK time.
That could have been a standard bollinger trade but itās nice to have the MAs confirming the overall bias direction.
I also took a swing trade from the 1hr flat bollinger roundabout 1.5310 as well but thatās a longer running one.
Thanks but I have a way to go yet
I could be wrong but I donāt expect the Ā£ to get above 1.5400 especially before the election. At least, Iām hoping we get back to 1.5 and below for this swing trade.