Yeah but it’s easier with hindsight 
I miss trades all the time, especially intraday. There’s always another round the corner…
You mean like today’s EU candle? LOL
Yes, that is a good one actually but wait until US closes at 1600 EST to see what the final candle looks like.
However, it takes a brave man to step up and buy the EU at the moment but it is due a bounce sometime as it is oversold. Only thing against it is that the wick hasn’t moved outside the bollinger band so it’s open to a bit of interpretation.
If it’s 2% then risk then it’s worth a punt, a green hammer would be nice than a red one. SL is going to be about 150 pips.
I’ll wait and see what EU does as Asia opens, maybe I can catch a small position on a 1-2 day retrace. Also looking at GU…
thanks!
Not yet 
With Oanda I can not hedge but the lot sizing is such that I could have a 200pip SL and a reasonable amount of risk with my small account. If I entered a swing trade with that broker and my small account it would drastically limit my short term trading. I have been looking at the daily and weekly charts and reading RCarter, SanM, McGuiver and Matts dead pips and thinking I really need to look at swing trading. Thats the Oanda account it has to be an account with flexible lot size to run a big stop and small risk on a small account.
I know my scalping works for me if I have the time to do it. I am not giving it up at all. I funded my blown out FXCM account for scalping. The spreads and cost for a withdraw are a little higher. I found with the 1 micro lot minimum trade size I need to have a little more capital in that account to stay with my scalping MM. I will be up and running with that account funded right this week.
I like trading and I enjoy learning about how the market works. I still consider my self “in school” I have found some things that work for me and some that don’t. I have not given swing trading a real try and all the successful traders say its the way to go for long term profit and the path to the 5% club. I would be foolish not to give it a serious try these guys are winning and have won in the past and are telling me(us) exactly how they do it.
Ok, I am long euro from 1.2383 with a 200 pip SL.
I usually move to break even after a 1% move, which equates to about 100 pips. Can wait for an Asian session confirmation if necessary.
Others to consider:
EURJPY long - be aware of the correlation with the above trade. I’m not entering both as that would double my risk. Consider 2 half positions in each.
AUDJPY long - 80 was the better level to get in from support.
USDCAD short.
GBPUSD might be worth a shot but it is close to double bottom on the weekly chart so might test that at some point.
let me know any thoughts.
I think I’ll join you with a small position on the EU trade, looks good to me EU did print a 4 year low, maybe we’ll see a nice little retrace on the long side.
[B]EDIT:[/B] Also, with RC’s new 2 period regression close/ high/ low strat… the 2 period close line has started to point up on the daily, and weekly LOL!
I haven’t even looked at those lines yet but good that they confirm the same thing.
Now for the hard part…forget you just made that trade. For the most part, you will have 3 things to watch:
- wait for it to hit SL,
- wait for it to hit the point where you move to BE or
- wait for it to hit TP1.
Until then, the trade does not exist. Carry on day trading in the meantime as the hedge avoiding your bias for the long side, just take whatever setup presents itself. By hedge I do not mean you must only take shorts though that is an option, I simply mean that once you have covered yourself in a day trade that pays for your risk. So, if you took 2% risk on the swing, then 2x1% winning day trades pay for the hedge of the trade although I usually just look at it as day trading as a separate entity in itself. If you look at the swing trade before any of those 3 things, you will be tempted to tinker.
If you start to like this style of trading then you can probably have a go at what RC is doing, which to me seems like holding a balanced portfolio of trades on different pairs so you are not just subject to one pair’s price action (but you need to be aware of the intermarket relationships of the currency pairs and crosses when doing that). [B]I don’t know if that’s how he views it :)[/B]
[B]Okay! [/B] I’m with Oanda in US and can’t hedge per say but maybe I’ll think about intra day trading UC or EY to minimize any EU down side moves. If you get a chance check out RC’s 2 period regression close/ high/ low strat, it’s a lot different than the bolls. I went for a long walk this morning and thought about the concept behind what he’s doing with the strat, as usual it seems like he’s come up with another winner! The way I think it works is, forget about the actual price and just follow the 2 period regression close line. Think of it more like the 2 period close is the price with all the noise filtered out. Then just watch, follow and trade the 2 period close on your chosen time frames, the longer the better! The 2 period high & low show the normal ping pong range, if the price stays somewhat within the ping pong range, all is cool. I think that’s how it works… he’ll probably come back and tell me I’ve got it all wrong!
thanks!
Got it on a chart, what’s the signal for entry/exit?
I’ll have a look as I’ve been of and off this thread for a while so must have missed it.
Anyway, as you can see, you can probably mix and match a little as per today. I don’t really expect the PA to go far on this swing as there are net shorts on EU at the moment but from what I have been reading, the commercial trade is long (banks, etc.) trying to protect it but as we all know, very difficult to predict hence the importance of taking some profit along the way or until your exit signal says so.
Yeah, I’m hoping a day maybe two if we get lucky. I heard there are some bond auctions coming up this week, if they go badly I guess EU could drop through the floor again!
Post # 4173 RC posted his monthly charts with all his pairs showing the 2 close/high/low lines. Post # 4190 he described how he entered the trades. He used the monthly & the daily, I think it would work well using the daily & 4H… and to a lesser degree I guess the 4H & 1H too.
SanMiguel,
That is the hard part for sure and without a decent system it’s impossible. Nobody gets it all but if you had losses on that day then it’s obvious that your trading method is flawed. As I mentioned in my post even the Heiken Ashi or the Gann indicator would have netted a high percentage of the total pips.
The key to winning is to minimize the losing which is quite obvious but few actually trade with this in mind. SM, you have learned this and it’s now second nature to you and you probably never give it a second thought. The new trader forces trades and trades what he wishes to see instead of trading what is in front of him on the screen. Their trading plan is vague at best and they abandon it at the first sign of trouble and bail guaranteeing a loss.
Why do people trade this way? In their hurry to make the big bucks like Robert has demonstrated is there for the taking they jump off the cliff without looking. You and Robert are seasoned traders with a sixth sense of when to holdem and when to foldem like the professional poker player. You both have a method of trading and are confident of the results and your ability to read the chart.
I have advised a few traders in my day and the most obvious problem of the trader that loses consistantly is the indicator overload and watching the indicators and not the chart. The first thing I do is get rid of their indicators which makes them look at the chart. The initial fear of trading without them is great and they call me crazy when I tell them to do this but it works. I then have them trade on a demo with only the Bollingerband and an LRC and instruct them to trade within the channels.
Without fail everone of them made more money then they thought possible and most jumped to live trading even though I advised against it. But they all recognized one of their problems which is indicatoritis. Their trading reminded me of driving a car down the highway looking in the rear view mirror. They go on a trip without knowing where they are going.
Their thoughts were only on the indicators with no thought to trading times, fundamentals, market volume, higher time frames or anything else. This type of trading is not trading but more like gambling. Their emotions and how they approached trading was no different then the people in a casino playing the one arm bandits or the crap table. They bet on box cars and get snake eyes.
Now we are at the essense of what makes a profitable trader which is controlling your emotions. If you do everything else right before the initial buy and fail at this crucial factor you will still fail as your emotions kick in and you jump off the train before it has got to the station. Learning things unfortunately doesn’t always mean we put into practice what we learn and old habits are hard to break.
Trading demo accounts actually are worse then worthless and create bad habits if trading without knowledge. You cannot become a profitable trader by trading hundreds of hours on a demo unless you have learned all that is needed to be a profitable trader.
I see my thoughts and fingers have got away from me again with a long post.:eek:
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
Yep, I know it’s against the trend but this is what I do with daily swing trades. I always take one when I see a bottoming candle (or topping candle) on the Daily chart and especially in this case as it’s technically oversold. If it continues to go down with the trend then so be it.
The media are talking up the death of the euro at present so that’s one buy signal for me (plus the dollar index chart has a topping candle. I have some other hunches to do with oil and gold but that’s separate)
EU is still within the ping pong range of RC’s daily 2 period high/low lines. I’m still happy!
I;m currently short EU, Monthly is bearish, daily was bearish so entered based off RC’s newest system. Hopefully I entered correctly 
Hahah, so who’s following what. Aren’t you and dpip trading the same RC system? 
LOL this is what happens when you read trading forums and try a new system:D
On the E/U long trade getting the timing right is key I think it will be a tall but short lasting retrace.
I think E/U is due for a bounce real soon when all the big shorts start to cash out, and then get back in. Look at the money they could have made in the last 2 weeks:eek: In the long run I think Europe is still in a mess the only thing that will stop the slide of E/U is when the world/media catch on the US is not doing much better. I sound like a gold coin salesman.
Haha, Idk, I’m using his most recent system that has to do with the monthly and daily, unless im doing something wrong, which is possible
Shr1k,
Glad to see somebody on my side of the fence. We all know the bottom is coming but is it now, 1.22, 1.15 or something lower? I don’t really care and will be riding this downtrend to the reversal point. Trying to guess is like trying to catch a falling knife. What the media is saying is not important to me as they are as clueless as they get. Besides why guess when everything is at your finger tips to tell you the right direction.
Sorry SM I’m not with you on this one and believe Shr1k got it right. If we are wrong then I for one will see it on my charts and I’ll be going long for as long as the charts take me.
Johnny