Well I don’t know if I’m doing it right or not but I’ve been short GU from about 1.4467 and still waiting for it to go somewhere.
No worries, it is a market after all, there must be bulls and bears 
Fundamental:
My point about the media is simply that because they are clueless and because they are all talking the euro down, although not a signal in itself, it is enough for me to prick up my ears.
There are also net shorts/bears in the euro market from what I have been reading on the technical side, which historically is a bullish signal.
Gold in euro terms reached the magic number of 1000 EUR and is likely to retrace. It is somewhat correlated to the euro at the moment though also the dollar. Therefore, gold down, euro up.
Oil is oversold moving very rapidly in just a few days and should m ove up from $70 per barrel.
Technical:
PA is way away from it’s magnet, the 20 and 50MAs - an indication of oversoldness though not the bottom.
Dollar index hanging man, EU hammer candle outside the bollinger.
EU was at 1.3100 only seven trading sessions ago and hit 1.2230 yesterday, probably enough damage has been done to allow for some short covering maybe back to 1.2600-1.2650 (about the 38.2-50% retrace of the move down on the 4hr chart).
Coupled with the above and oversoldness of oil, I have also balanced the trade with a short on USDCAD (inverse correlation with oil).
I don’t blame anyone for not going long, it is after all a risky trade given the trend but a short swing trade for me is a short swing trade. If it works, I don’t intend to hold for long and will be short selling in the above region.
Here is 1 hedge short taken along the way for half the risk of the swing (10m chart):
17pips
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Hello San Miguel,
Very nice post and some very good points. I wasn’t questioning your decision to go long as much as the timing. My charts were indicating the same thing only way before and again after you made your trade. There had been significant movement up already and was about to hit resistance which it did and then back down 60 pips or so before the movement up again.
You seem to trade with a real lean towards the fundamentals with little regard to the charts. I trade with a lean towards the charts because you never know the when part of the fundamentals. The one thing I’ve learned is the PA will almost always finish its run to support or resistance in the present trend before reversing direction. I do not take drawdowns well just after placing a trade and when this happens I look for the whys and adjust so I minimize this in the future.
I look at the pivot reversal as the one perfect place to make the trade and if I miss taking that trade I wait for a retrace. I was waiting for the PA to hit resistance when you made that trade and was thinking the end of the session might lower the volume enough to cancel that expectation and I would have to jump out early. That is why I questioned the trade.
I guess it comes down to what beeps your bippy.
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
Yeah, of course…that is one consequence of timing an entry based solely off the Daily chart 
I’ll be monitoring it today to see what happens though and if anything starts to look dodgy on the other markets I look at then may exit if it is turning into a dead cat bounce.
SanMiguel
Well EU long still looks a little risky and counter to the longer trend, but I’m still happy with it and willing to let in run. Today’s H/L range has already printed 130 pips, based on the past ATR I’m not betting on any more big upside moves today.
If it doesn’t crash and burn overnight I’m looking forward to seeing what EU does tomorrow.
I think I could start to like playing the daily, more thoughtful, less reactive trading And less stressful and more sleep!
PS As always, thanks for your advice and help!
NO! The EU long trade doesn’t meet RC’s rules for entry. As I understand his rules, you trade in the direction of the monthly 2 period linear close-line, right now the daily is moving up and the weekly is pointing up just a tiny bit, but the monthly linear close-line is still pointing down. Sorry if I confused anyone :o
Would be interested to hear RC’s take on trading the weekly line close timed on Daily. Monthly trend is quite a high TF.
1.23 is really the deciding factor for me on EU. Below that I’m not liking it much though it is still in play unless we close below the bottoming candle.
There is also an uptrendline on the smaller TFs.
What I sometimes do, though opted not to on this occasion is split the risk, so I enter a half trade at the close of the daily candle then if price retraces a little, I can get my other half trade in halfway down the bottoming candle. This is averaging in but the risk is calculated to be the same as entering a full position right at the top. This is if you timed it on the Daily. If you got in a long at the bottom then kudos
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Man, the euro is getting absolutely kabooshed at the moment.
Big bounce off 1.23, let’s see how long that can hold.
I’ll take a second intraday long roundabout 1.2250-60 for 20pips to hedge out in full.
:rolleyes:
So far up another 200 pips using RC’s new strategy, so 500 total.
Seeing as he’s not about, do you wait for the line to turn intraday or wait until the end of the day to see which way it’s pointing?
And stop losses, you use the outer band?
Me too, seems to me that trading in the direction of the weekly and daily close line would work fine. When you get the monthly, weekly & daily all lined up in the same direction I guess that’s when you push in all your chips!
I when EU got down around 1.2335 I put a long position on USD/CHF try a little hedging. I’ll wait and see how things move overnight and into the london open.
nice !!!
The current monthly is pointing down on EU so only shorts. Daily was pointing downwards as well so I entered short again. That simple, so simple I feel like something isnt right lol.
Yeah, so, as soon as the Daily points down you enter a trade, ie you don’t wait for the daily candle to close before doing it? The worry obviously is doing that right at the start of the FX day but if it works then it works
Well, ya I see what you mean, thats why I feel like im not doing something right. But, for me, the new day is at 5pm est (ibfx acc) and I entered probably sometime around noon ish yesterday, not exactly sure when, so the day was already established. Maybe your supposed to wait for a daily close to confirm the downtrend?
edit: closed all those trades out at +200 total, so 500 pips total this week since sunday, now if only I didnt have such small lot sizes 
lol. For RC; How do you cope with holding positions for such a long time? I’ve held this one (200 pips) for 2 days, ive seen it go positive 150 to negative 80 ish (of all combined trades, about 6) and then to +200 so i closed out.
Here, I’ll bump RC’s rules
Couple of threads on today’s euro moves…
Do You See What Happens Larry When You Ban Naked Shorting, CDS Trading And Institute A Transaction Tax With A 6 Hour Notice?
German reform about to whack fx market
Any Big Lebowski fans out there?
For those who don’t know, some German news may have spooked the euro market.
I’m still holding my long - have to live with the decision now - probably have to wait another day to see what is happening (have hedged out about 80% with 2 successful day trades so fingers crossed).
[B][I]Edit: not loving today’s move too much :eek:.
Following the day trades, I have entered another position right at 1.22.
This takes my average entry to 1.2290 with SL at 1.2150 with the same overall risk.
The last chance I have here as that this was the final flush of any longs in the market from yesterday before we move up. Holding out overnight.[/I][/B]
i have a gap on my EU 15m and 1h charts, very strange. first time i’ve seen one this big other than on a sunday
[B]
This is the kind of surprise that makes FX exciting! [/B]
It would be more exciting if we were short! 
Anyway, as you can see swing trading involves a lot of whipsaws 
TBH, the markets are very volatile today - it is not the easiest for swing trading, quick 20pip trades are proving more profitable but hey can’t argue with 200pips for hellogoodbye …