I still have my long USD/CHF position so I’ve got it hedged 
I was thinking, if I had kept my trades goin (something I need to work on), Id probly be pretty close to 800ish pips between 6 trades :(. 200 is fine for a day tho just need bigger lot sizes lol.
But how often do we get 300 pip moves on the Euro?!
I suppose the question is did you follow an exit signal or did you just exit because it was 200pips?
Just takes a bit of time, I remember my first 100pip trade and I was ultra chuffed with that. After that I started to get more composure by exiting 50% of my position at certain places and holding on to see what happened.
Think my best ever was 650 pips but I struggle really badly to hold on past 300pips. I also struggle when the price is below 100 pips - just one of those psychology things
It was 200 pips between 6 pairs, not just 200 off the euro :p. Though, right now I think it would be atleast 200 soley on the euro + 5 other pairs
Nice trading! What pairs?
Most of the ones I can trade with ibfx that RC had on his last word doc. GBP/JPY AUD/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD EUR/USD USD/CHF theres 2 more pairs that I have up but didnt trade them USD/CAD and EUR/CHF
Oh, I just closed the trades because they were at +200, Im still not too comfortable keepin trades goin lol.
A question for RC when he returns and anyone using the M/D regression or W/D regression.
When the monthly regression line starts to turn down, surely the Daily regression line has turned downwards many days before hand?
Another good little read from ZH:
Summary Of Today’s Festivities From Goldman and Morgan Stanley: Run From The Euro | zero hedge
Excerpt below:
EUR/USD plunged to a fresh 4-year low this afternoon. Reports that Germany’s financial services regulator BaFin will issue new restrictions on short selling appeared to be the key catalyst sparking widespread EUR selling. To some extent, the surprise announcement was interpreted as another incremental measure treating one of the symptoms of the problems in the Eurozone, rather than getting to the direct cause. In that regard, the lack of a comprehensive plan is feeding into market concerns about the credibility of EU policymakers in dealing with the spillover from sovereign risk issues (this is similar to the challenges US authorities faced in 2008). In addition, the announcement may have the unintended consequence of channeling more investors into short EUR positions. If investors cannot express negative views on the EU in the bond or CDS markets, short EUR could prove the path of least resistance.
The volatility the announcement sparked in equity markets, spilled over into FX as a safe-haven bid. The USD appreciated against higher-beta currencies such as the AUD, NOK, SEK and ZAR. The Japanese yen also posted strong gains on the day.
Earlier today, we took partial profit on the core short EUR/USD position in our model portfolio after the pair touched our initial target of 1.24. But given our medium-term bearish outlook, we maintain a 15% allocation to short EUR/USD. While the short EUR trade appears to be increasingly crowded, the unexpected nature of the policy announcements is increasing market volatility and weighing on sentiment. Moreover, EUR/USD also seems to be taking its cue from risk aversion. Though it is difficult to gauge how persistent this latest bout of risk aversion is likely to prove, our GRDI indicator remains in deep risk aversion territory, below the -2 standard deviation mark. The downtrend in EUR is getting increasingly sloppy, but the momentum does not seem to be fading.
Ya, SM, I’m still very unsure of the specifics of RC’s new system. Hopefully he’ll clear some things up when he comes back. [I]Hint hint.[/I] 
SanMiguel,
My Daily chart showed a down market from the very open. I had a major buy long signal on the Daily when the Euro hit the low of 1.2233 on the 16th at 22:39 EST. The same major buy long signal was on all my TF charts. The were numerous minor sell signals and then a major sell at 7:57. A Major buy long signal occurred at 15:02 EST and was a very short retrace.
First of all I’m not boasting how good my signals are but they are working very well. The point I’m trying to make to you and the rest of the gang here is the charts are not tied to the fundamentals and are just reacting to the data. Without watching the news or reading analyst predictions on the internet the charts tell me the exact points of reversal and the correct buys and sells. If your charts aren’t giving you the correct information then you need to change them.
Your making decisions strictly on the Daily and a buy long 8 hours past the pivot low point to me is stickly gambling on the present trend. The decision to go long strickly on the fundamentals is again a gamble that the fundamentals are going to hold true to your line of thinking. All of this type of trading is again driving down a super highway looking only at the rear view mirror. Sometimes I’m sure it brings you success and you make some pips but I just can’t see the point in doing it in the first place.
The price at the present time is the result of all the factors involved with one big major exception. That exception is the big money pushing the price in one direction or another. Not considering this and trading against them will be detrimental to your bank account. The effect of the fundamentals occur only when big money says it happens. This is the reason the PA always finishes its run to support and resistance.
The Daily high to low was $2827 yesterday and gambling in the wrong direction would have put a big dent in your bank account. I’ve had traders tell me in the past that you have to expect drawdowns on the Daily and my only question to them is always the same. Why?? Is your buy or sell button broken? They are always concerned about their win/loss record and the commissions they will have to pay. They watch and hope and are still hoping when the PA hits their sell stop.
Nothing personal here SM just my take on things.
Happy trading,
Johnny
IMO BB is pretty useless on its own…
Wish I knew what you were doing to get the information your getting
When you have more time you need to provide more info about the strat
That’s fine my friend and I take your points but this is just one of the ways I trade the Daily charts. For all the times it has worked it has paid very well indeed
I’m not sure what your buy signals were on the Euro when the Daily candle finished closing as a long wicked candle but I didn’t see any from my perspective. I suppose there were some MA crossovers and such on the intraday charts but I wanted something concrete to go long on a swing bearing in mind the trend,
However, with no support in that region for the Euro, I was unlikely to, which is why I was basing my decision purely on a Daily candle pattern - in fact it was working out very well before all this sudden news release from Germany but thems the breaks.
Fundamentals are just something I follow but it wasn’t the sole reason for the trade. Although I have been stopped out, I still have my “theoretical bets” on a move to 1.26 once the dust has settled.
I agree with you that a big drawdown is not necessary and there are various ways of avoiding this. One thing is for sure, most of the successful trades end up continuing in the right direction very soon after entry.
Anyway, here is an example of a non winning trade - not something many traders on this blog seem to be accustomed to or posting about. A 2% dent is no biggy
I think a lot of it, although using similar tools/indicators, is that we all trade very slightly different ways. I for one don’t just trade EU. I trade a lot of intermarket instruments, which for the most part balances out my trades into a kind of mini portfolio…perhaps not intentionally but that’s the way it works so I am subject to less drawdown swings than perhaps a trader trading 1 FX pair - it’s particularly difficult to quantify. Can you count how many different strats have been suggested on this thread since the beginning? All based on roughly the same indicator. I like to keep it simple and maybe trying to pick the bottom of a trend ain’t the simple way but using a “swing candle” outside the bollinger remains one of my highest probability trades to date.
Hello Robert,
What the heck are you doing working on vacation? My wife would kill me if she caught me doing that sort of thing and that is why I make sure I don’t get caught. LOL
How can you say I’m wedded to the shorter time frames?:eek: I’m thinking of going to a 25 tick chart for making my trades. Whatcha think?
I’m afraid using regression 2 close/ high/ low on the daily in the direction of the monthly seems something akin to voodoo trading but haven’t had time to look at it yet.
Try to relax and not think about all the money you’re losing taking a vacation.:eek: Your tax bill will be lower and so will your blood pressure.
Johnny
Hello again SanMiguel,
Must say I’m enjoying our trading discussion here. It’s always good to view things through the eyes of another trader and even more so when it’s from somebody as knowledgable as yourself.
My indicators don’t wait for any long wicked candle closes. They don’t care if they’re wicked or good but only if the low is really low or the high is really high. Now if I make a buy long and the price goes up and makes the candle have a long wick at the bottom I feel rather wicked taking a bunch of money out of the market.
The candle on the 17th had a long bottom wick which was 156 pips wicked, low to close which was a very good little wick indeed.LOL. Give me a wicked candle or a wicked woman and I’m a happy guy although at my age a wicked candle is something I can handle better.LOL.
As far as my signals on that wicked little candle they were screaming buy, buy, buy with the alerts blasting Ahooga through my speakers loud enough to wake up the dead.:eek:
I liken my trading to taking my little Dashund for a walk. Jack is a well behaved little doggie but likes to push me as far as possible. I have him on a long leash which is like a long rubberband. Jack will go to the limit of his leash and after a few seconds of choking himself comes back to the path that I’m walking on and then to the opposite side of the path where he does the same thing all over again. He keeps doing this as he doesn’t want to miss anything on either side of the walk and knows from his nose there’s a rabbit hiding out behind one of those bushes.
The PA does the same thing on the charts so I buy when the PA has reached the end of its leash on the short side and sell when the PA has reached the end its leash on the long side.
Finding indicators that show this is quite easy but one is never enough as any one indicator just doesn’t always react quick enough. Indicators such as the Bollinger band attempt to do this and is one of the best but never really show the lowest or the highest or when to trade and when not to trade. It will show a break through of the PA but then the price can continue for hours riding the Bols. This as you know is really the Bols riding the price.
I change the code of the indicators to do what I want them to do and sometimes they don’t even resemble the same indicator. Although my charts may show a particular name such as stochastics they all have been altered in one way or another.
I see a secondary sell signal on the EURUSD from the last major buy long which is up around 60 pips. I will post my chart when I get some time.
Happy Trading,
Johnny
What great timing these idiots have in Germany. They must be short the EURO. We are looking for parity down the road with this Euro thingie. The French did the banning naked shorts awhile back and it didn’t save their ass in this mess. What and who does this protect? The last investor in Europe please turn out the lights as there’s nobody left to pay the bills.
Is there a government somewhere that isn’t totally clueless? I think we need regulators to regulate the Government and eliminate stupidity. The American people have determined that both of the parties here are Dumb and Dumber. The problem is we now see a Tea Party forming with Sarah Palin as the speaker of note. I don’t think she’s any smarter then Obama but she can’t be any dumber. I’d like to see her trade naked on a bear rug. I think I’d be going long for sure.
I found a few guys that say they want to be in a high government position and are fully qualified to run for President. See the attached picture. They really liked the idea of Sarah on their staff. This trading naked thingie was at the top of their list.
Looks like the Euro will keep heading down right along with Obama’s rating.
Johnny
Although naked shorting should be illegal anyway, I can’t think why they would announce such a thing with the markets in the state they are. Unless it’s some kind of game being played against Bernanke. The higher gold goes and the stronger the US $ gets, it hurts the US stock markets.
A little quote from an online blog:
“Rather than cutting taxes, or the like, to spur economic
growth and come to the defense of Europe, Germany
chose to ban naked short selling! What idiocy is this?”
DOuble dip recession anyone?
[I]D.Gartman, 19/05/2010[/I]
Where then is support for the EUR… although a better
question is where is resistance… in the present
environment? 1.2150 has been some minor support,
and our friends at Goldman Sachs foreign exchanges
sales desk in NY remind us that 1.2135 is the 50%
retracement “of the lifetime EURUSD range” and
therefore that level is of rather great importance. At
this point, the difference between 1.2135 and 1.2150 is
nothing. It is “pencil thickness” error when drawing a
trend line that is years in the making. Thus, let’s call it
1.2150 and be done with it. That level must…
absolutely must… hold and it must hold for days and
weeks and months, or the market shall put to test the
bottom of the “The Box” marking the entire EUR bull
run and that means something closer to 1.1650. If
1.1650 is taken out, “Par” becomes a much more likely
reality.