It seems that OB/OS is what people seem to be focusing on, RC and Shr1k included. I am still trying to grasp the particulars and am hoping these two (or others) will be able to answer my questions below.
From earlier Shr1k posts:
Most of my trades are based on overbought/oversold condition being met on a few time frame charts simultaneously. I use 20:2 BB, 5:1 BB, and two 2-period moving averages set to high and low. I don’t take a trade inside the channel on a daily chart. So the daily sets the direction.
I get that orders are placed when PA is outside the channels, but how does one figure stops in these circumstances? In order to maintain disciplined MM one must have some idea of maximum loss per trade, in pips. I’ve noticed that both the system Shr1k outlined and the RC system codified some time back both do not address the matter of stop loss values. Can anyone provide advice on this matter?
The 1hr and 15min are for entry - again never trade in the channel. The 5 min is for watching a trade and exit. Most trades are scalping trades a few pips to 15 or 20. As long as the 5 min chart is not starting to go against me I will stay open. I close most trades early. I watch the 10 pairs with the lowest spreads. That’s not as bad as it seems a quick glance at the daily chart will eliminate most pairs most days.
I’ve noticed that both Shr1k and RC mentioned these two TFs in their systems. (RC in his daytrading system described the 15m being for scalpers, the 1H for trend followers.) Is the 15m recommended as the shortest TF advisable to open trades based on OB/OS characteristics?
MMTT+RCarter’s channels + closing trades early + wacky MM = $
RCarter frequently changes the indicators he uses to determine his channels, but can we agree they are fundamentally based on the 2-period High/Low LWMAs and the 20:2 std Bollinger?
Are there any other indicators strongly recommended as filters to help indicate when OB/OS has exhausted itself and is preparing a return to the channel?
I look for a pair that meets Rui’s MMTT rules and I trade the same direction you would for MMTT. To go short I wait for price to get over the 2 ma on my 15 min chart enter and grab a few pips. If I am wrong I might wait it out; if it’s OB on every TF from Daily down to 15 min it will usually at least BE.
So you start your trading session with the following steps?
1.) Look at 2-period H/L LWMAs for all pairs on the Daily chart. Ignore all those pairs currently inside the channel; focus only on those pairs currently outside the channel created by the LWMAs. (At this stage do you consider the shape of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart?)
2.) Drop down to the 1H TF and check for those pairs upon which we are focused for the session and look for OB/OS (LWMAs/outer Bolls) opposite to the direction of the channel we noted on the Daily.
3.) When price is OB/OS on the hourly in the same way the pair was OB/OS on the Daily, drop down to the 15m. When price also moves outside the LWMAs/outer Boll away from the channel, open an order back in the direction of the channel.
Lot sizes would be based on percentage of the account risked, but how do we establish the size of the possible stop? Shr1k talks about closing right away with a few pips (15 or 20), but if the trade size is small and the SL is wide one will need many such small, successful trades in a session to clear one percentage point.
Can anyone help me fill in the blanks?
John (Merchantprince)
[I]“Nobody can be exactly like me. Even I have trouble doing it.”[/I]