[B]SanMiguel[/B]
I only use the 5m to scalp as you were yesterday on the boll bounce. Its too choppy for a longer term trade set up in my opinion. I use 15m to enter/ exit the 1h.
Ok, in which case right now, if you were trading, you’d be on a short from 1.6365ish or only once the middle bollinger was crossed?
There’s still no guarantee that on the 15min, which can also be a bit choppy at times that price won’t just bounce of the middle bollinger and continue is there?
For example, what would you have done here today? Yes, we were in a strong up move but we couldn’t necessarily know it was going to carry on after this point:
[B]Cas[/B]
When you say you open up an EU chart to have a look to get a clue, is that a particular timeframe, or pretty much the higher TFs: Daily, 4hr, 1hr
[B]SanMiguel[/B]
I wouldn’t have entered a short there on a longer trade. PA has moved strongly today. Also as I said, I trade the 1h chart on longer trades and look to the 15m to ‘fine tune’ the entry.
PA on the 1h chart still has room to go up to 1.640’ish before it hits serious resistance.
SanMiguel
When I’m looking for a possible longer term trade. I look for solid S/R preferably at the outer bollinger on the 1h. Yesterday PA double tested support on the 1h on the lower bollinger. Then I entered the long trade, PA again tested support and my SL 
Then boke to the upside.
Yes, sorry - you confused me when you said: "I use 15m to enter/ exit the 1h. "
So, as an example, you wait for an MA cross on the 1hr, probably combined with S/R, but what are you then looking at on the 15min to fine tune? A small retrace to get a better entry or something else?
eg MAs cross downwards on the 1hr, what are you looking for on the 15min? Price to hit the top bollinger so you can get short from that point?
[B]SanMiguel[/B]
EU charts are the same as GBP. Meaning 5m, 15m 1h and 4h. I place them next to each other…
GBP 5m with EU 5m and so on.
In whatever chart I trade GBP I look at a corresponding EU chart as reference.
Do you always find that correlation? Surely if EU went up and GU went up then EG would stay still all the time
Today EU went sideways from 12GMTish whereas GU carried on up.
CAS What do you make of the BB’S on the 4H EU going up GU going down steeply PA seems to match and BB’s on other GU TF are up as are they on EU
John
[B]SanMiguel[/B]
I look to the 1h for solid S/R preferably at upper or lower boll band and the usual wick/ wicks… Then the 15m for a good change of direction on the ma. Then enter.
Price seems to be stuck near the 1.6358 is it just building up steam to keep going south or trying to turn north probably waiting to see what I do and then go the other way
John
[B]JCGIBSON[/B]
Range seems to be 1.634 - 1.64. PA is currently in the middle’ish. Tough call. 
No.
I said I am looking for [B]clues[/B]. Meaning that extra indicator.
Sometimes GBP follows EUR with each pip. If that happens I have found that extra indicator.
The EUR has hit September 2008 high. That’s [B]major[/B] resistance.
R Carter
I was not thinking of a trade here. Today is the first time I have paid attention to the higher TF’s and the 4H is out of whack I have seen that a lot with the 30M but it is behaving today I haven’t looked higher then the 1H tell today.
I was just wondering if the was any significance to that it just seams strange.
John
SanMiguel,
The traders that ignore the technicals and the traders that ignore the fundamentals are all on the same boat. They are all on the Titanic ignoring the weather reports and the icebergs and its full speed ahead in the fog.
Your post was somewhat disappointing and reminds me of the saying “A mind changed against its will is of the same opinion still”. You answered my previous post with we don’t do countertrend trades when the PA is in a steep angle.
If you keep ignoring the obvious (fundies, angle, time of trade) you will keep making the same decisions leading to the same results.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein
The Bols is derived by the price and the deviation plus and minus from the Simple moving average which in this case is set at 20. The price does not move to the beat of the bols but moves independently. So when your trading the big question is where is the price likely to go at this point in time.
The Bols is just following along for the ride as all indicators do and the fact is it has no magical powers but I don’t dismiss its value. I use many Bols values and treat them as upper and lower bands of profit taking points. I even consider them support and resistance lines although they are not in the true sense of the word.
I find when the question of “when will the PA reverse” comes to the forefront I turn my attention to the Linear Regression Channel for the answer. If you make a hand drawn LRC from midnight to 4:00 am on the M15 you will see a very narrow channel which in itself shows little profit to be made from upper leg to lower leg of the channel. It doesn’t matter if you’re just scalping the market or making a longer term trade. Just a few posts ago you stated you don’t trade the counter trends when the PA is moving at a sharp angle.
By your own words your target is the mid-band which is exactly my point. The amount of profit potential is very small compared to the risk involved. There are others that say the LRC standard deviation line is the line of profit which if I have the chart correct has already been violated by the time you made the trade, putting this situation in a no trade category.
The problem with the Bollinger Bands Mid-Band position is the fact that it will be different based on what value the user chooses to use. If I change the setting to 30 than I will see a 30 SMA line instead of the 20 SMA that you are using here.
The LRC on the other hand doesn’t change until more data is involved in the calculation as the price action continues on its way. Any change is in small increments so the standard deviation line is basically in the same position. The PA will always come back to this line and is the reason for the saying that the money lies in the center of the channel and is the true �point of decision� to change direction.
A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be.
Albert Einstein
Trade well and prosper,
Johnny
SanMiguel,
Seems you think I trade when all the time frames are aligned and the trends are all headed in the same direction. Although this would be very nice it just wouldn’t happen for very long and this is not how I trade.
I look at the Daily, H4, H1, M30 & M15 to determine where the PA is in relation to their Support and Resistance as well as Bols and LRC. This is so I don’t get blindsided by a reversal of trend on the upper TF’s. I of course look at the trend of each and then after also analyzing the fundamentals make my trade. I make all my buys and sells on the M1.
So if I’m looking to place a trade on the H1 and the daily is in a countertrend that is no reason for me not to trade.
I hope this eliminates the confusion.
Johnny
A few points, I’m all for discussion.
1/ I said I made a mistake in that trade and the reasons why.
2/ Fundamentals drive the overall trend. We are trading the 1hr timeframe here, predominantly, including retraces, etc. - that’s technicals although I don’t trade either side of news reports. I didn’t say my mind couldn’t be changed, I’m just not convinced fundamentals play a huge part in trading the 1hr timeframe or the amount of pips involved unless you are referring to opening up some other charts like FTSE etc. in which case all you’re doing is using other charts as a technical indicator, no?
3/ The bounce trades, as R Carter has stated, are for the 5min charts when volumes are lower or price has no real direction and they do work, the R:R is never less than 1:1 for scalps.
4/ Yes, but we’re using the 20 period bands here, it’s just a guideline as to what to aim for. I’m not saying the bands have any magical power at all but they ARE based on a mathematical formula containing the large majority of the price action (95% by default though more volatile pairs will reduce this a bit) and traders follow them.
5/ If the middle channel is the point of decision change, and I’d agree with you that the middle line separates the 2 halves of the bollinger if you will, the bulls and the bears, it is also a risky point to trade because PA can stall there and resume the trend, as in my example a few posts above.
[B]JohnnyBSmart[/B]
Sent this post earlier… you may have missed it?
[B]SanMiguel[/B]
My preferred chart time is 1h for the longer trade. Yesterday you will remember you were boll boncing on the 5m and I had placed a trade long at 1.6173 (post 331). My TP1 was hit at +50 pips yesterday. My TP2 was hit at +130 pips today.
[B]JohnnyBSmart[/B]
Placing the above trade illustrates my point no? Day and 4h were trending down. Using your rules I should not have placed that trade.
Last night I had a ‘ties’ worth of beer (metaphor for more than a few on another thread). When you came in and told us all we were trading wrong. It was a red rag to a bull. No offense…hope you stick around. :)[/QUOTE]
So you only trade the m1 chart and are guided by the 1h or you also trade the 1h?
quiet tonight, anybody makin any pips?
No, we’re just busy losing them and telling each other off 
MAs have crossed down on the 1hr charts with a bounce off resistance at 1.6412 and price has crossed over the centre bollinger. However, there is the up channel to consider so it might not be ready for a sell yet.
