Today was extremely boring… No trades on GBPJPY triggered… I think the banks are on to me. GBPUSD has been so close to triggering an order allllllll day, missed it by only a few pips… Still waiting lol.
These quiet times always seem to test one’s patience.
Hang in there, when it finally moves, it’s likely to go fast and far;)
Master Tang,
Right on. Thanks for the tip.
Yep, couldn’t agree more.
I think about it like this, in an uptrend, I am looking for a place to get in when the pair / stock is cheap. If the trend on cable is up, I’m looking to buy on a retrace to the downside where the £ is undervalued in current relative terms to the $.
Vice versa in a downtrend, I’m looking to sell when it is overvalued.
You can apply the same logic to something in the supermarket though I suspect you don’t chart milk prices 
It is more conservative to trade that way - it doesn’t mean you can’t take breakouts but you need other reasons than just “look 1 candle has gone past the high”.
The eternal issue, of course, is knowing whether you are buying into an uptrend on a retrace, selling into a downtrend – or just catching a trend as it ends and now goes the other way against you. I still am choosing wrong pretty much every time.
Sure, I may have oversimplified it a little but I’m sure you can find some strongly trending pairs out there to put the odds in your favour.
That was always the thing I found with bolly bands in that, you would be buying and get caught up in a downtrend but if traded mechanically the RR is usually good on the successful trades.
Some examples from the EU 1hr chart:
If you look at those trades the good ones go positive very quick. The losers stall then go bad. One of the things I look at is how quick the thing I think is going to happen happens. If I go long and price stalls at that point I look for a get out as close to BE or a few pips as I can. I have found with Bol bounces a bounce is like a ball bouncing not rolling.
Which BBands are u using? Looks very confusing lol.
Actually, this is just something that I’m looking at but it’s sigma 1,2,3, and 4 bands (standard deviations). Taking trades from the 3 with SL at 4.
If with trend, targeting the 2sigma on the other side.
If counter trend and want to take the trade then targeting the middle band.
If flat bollinger, then targeting 2sigma on the other side.
Again, the major problem with these is usually emotion and/or getting stuck in a strongly trending move.
On that chart above, orange is the middle band, you can count outwards from there…
Like Sh1rk said, if you don’t see the move in 1, max 2 candles, then alarm bells should be ringing.
Oh, thats a pretty neat indi :p, I’ll have to give it a look sometime
Here’s some trivia for the afternoon as everything’s a bit slow.
This chart has boll bounces on the 15m TF.
There are high percentage trades, decent, and trades that should not be taken.
Can you spot the high percentage trade(s) on the chart? There is one that stands out the most.
click the image again in ImageShack and it will open up larger.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Wow, this is weird. You mentioned the additional sigma bolls to me earlier (and it certainly was discussed at some length in the distant past of this thread), Tymen is now talking about the employment of a 1.5 boll for entries on his Boll DNA thread.
To top things off, I just spent the last day or so going over my peaks and valleys threads/docs and found a system written by a very good trader who also wrote a P&V PDF I consider the best and most concise on the subject. He outlined a trading strategy which employed the 1 and 1.5 dev bolls (see PDF attached).
After ten months of studying forex, with much of that study centered on Bollinger Bands, I find that this one amazing indicator can still be used in so many ways I never considered that I suddenly feel today like I’ve only grasped just a portion of it’s potential.
BB on Steroids.pdf (175 KB)
I’ll have a read through that.
The Blue signal is an extension of what we also talked about on here called the Buy zone and SELL zone, ie price between the 20:1 and 20:2 but has a better guide on when to take the trade.
…just consider for one moment though that 1SD should contain [B]only [/B]68% of the likely price action - so, I’m not 100% comfortable with the 1.5SD strategy but the principle is obviously the weakening of price action, ie less momentum in the direction it was going.
Yeah, I’m certainly making no pronouncements on the efficacy of the system, just that I happened across it at the time our discussion was moving this way on additional bolls. I only read the PDF once and want to study it some more on actual charts.
Here is a little indicator to help you (and I really mean us on the thread ;)) to test the blue part of that PDF - it should indicate the buy and the sell days if working correctly.
I will try and get some automatic backtesting done on this but will need a few days and as the stop losses are subjective, will need a few ideas on that. That PDF talks about the middle band as a SL. The idea we talked about buy/sell zones a few months back uses a 2/3rds candle close above the 20:1 as the signal to get out.
BuySellZones.zip (3.86 KB)
28 july around 10:15 ?
Well, that’s one as it’s outside the 3SD and the bollinger is flat, I’d take those immediately but there’s one further back, doesn’t come around too often but in a strategy like this, which is basically mean reversion (to get technical ;)) is worth taking every time.
You mean that hanging man (I think that’s what it’s called) that wicked outside the outer boll whilst the trend was still upward?
Yep, although again, you’d have to get in on the pierce of the band to get the right RR but as the MA was pointing upward, in theory that’s a good place to get in.
Any thoughts?
I’m not a big fan of the trades when the MA in the middle is anymore than 2 o’clock - of course the MA changes to fit the average afterwards a little…
Also, when there’s a boll squeeze try to stay away…