One hour 14 SMA has firmly crossed the center line bollinger! So if following this strategy, all trades should now be placed short and exit on retraces or hedge. 
true, but it looks very horizontal so far this evening, well it is the Asian session after all. Iām hesitant to go short until it shows some sign of moving in a certain direction. Look back at Sept 15 through 17 to see something similar.
I may wait another hour or two to see if it shows signs of heading south before I enter an order. Nothing wrong with the strategy, just wondering if thereās a chance it may turn and go up from here ?
Ok I went ahead and did a sell anyway, looks like it could head that wayā¦
trust the force Lukeā¦
talond
jedi āRā :D:D:D
LOL
think weāre on the same wavelength
[B]TALOND[/B]
Seriously though, resistance is 1.601 and support 1.597. Donāt see it breaking resistance. So the only way is ranging between the two points or down tonight.
I would āguesstimateā tonights/ tomorrows breakout will be south! Oopsā¦ wrong thread.
[B]TALOND[/B]
Well thats what I was waiting forā¦ my 50 pip trailing stop just hit BE. Going to hit the hay its 02:30 GMT here!
Good trading tonight!
Itās headed that way. following your lead, I have a 50 pip trailing stop.
I may have found my problem. Itās two fold.
First, while Iām wasting my time at my day job (easily make on a demo account in 1 hour that I make in two weeks at work), I trade on my PDA. The indicators and the screen size make life difficult to say the least. Iād much rather be on my pc at home to trade.
Second, I was trading the Asian session at work! (EWW! Iāve got soy on me!) During the morning hours, I manage to do ok with this system so far, but come 4pmish eastern, I need to just walk away from the screen.
Going to start monitoring the thread at night and seeing what you guys are up to. I missed the downturn a few hours ago sadly.
well when my trailing stop got hit I was up about 6 pips. Where did I go wrong R ?
[B]TALOND[/B]
Which system are you following. THe [B]1h centerline cross over [/B](your longer term strategy) with a 14 SMA [B]or just PA crosses of the 3 LWMA[/B]?
If following the [B]1h centerline cross over[/B], you should only be placing short trades when PA crosses the 3 LWMA and either exiting or hedging when PA breaks back up through the 3 LWMA. Then re-entering a short or taking off the hedge when PA once again cuts through (back down) the 3 LWMA. This is because the 14 SMA has broken through the 1h centerline bollinger.
The longer term 1h crossover strat will still be subject to PA swings up and down around the 1h centerline bollinger. But the theory is that once the 14 SMA cuts throught the 1h centerline bollinger and remains below it longer term market sentiment is downā¦ why am I telling you this its your theory!
With a big enough stop this strat can be left to do its own thing, its earned 1100 pips since 17/09 right. But if you can be near the monitor you could actively manage the trade using the above short trades the way I have described above to increase pips and negate the need for a big stop.
[B]TALOND[/B]
Look at it this way, if following the 1h cross over strat and [B]actively managing the trade[/B]. You entered a short (PA cross of 3 LWMA but late). If you entered a short last night at around 23:00 EST, PA cross of the 3 LWMA on the 1h chart, the trade would have made you 70 pips before PA went back up through the 3 LWMA where upon using your system the trade should be closed or hedged.
Iām really only looking at the 14 crossing center, since itās hard for me to keep up with PA and 3ma while at work. I missed the earliest entry, remember last night I said it looked too horizontal, but I didnāt miss it by much. I was up a good 50 pips sometime during the night but had a 50 pip trailing stop which got hit so I ended up with about 6 pips profit. Didnāt loose at least
This morning I entered another sell since 14 is still below center so Iāll go with that. in profit right now so farā¦
so Iāll diagnose my problem as too small a stop loss for the 1h chart and entering a little too late as usual (talonditis).
hedging is difficult with the broker Iāve got and I want to keep things simple right now anyway. I remember in the beginning you said Iād need steel ones to trade thisā¦ well maybe Iāve got iron ones ? LOL
I can try to actively manage some during the day but only sporadically. and not at night EDT only during the evening EDT and thatās Asian session so not much happening there most nights.
[B]TALOND[/B]
I think your theory (MA cross of the 1h) is the Donkeyās X~#! and am following it very closely. But your right. You need to simply forget PA and set a [B]BIG[/B] stop large enough for the PA swings, all be it in ever decreasing highs. Psychologically demanding (definately need Titanium ones).
Or actively manage the (in this case short)trade with break through of PA of the 3 LWMA.
I entered a sell at about midnight gmt at about 1.5980 price and set a 50pip TS, watched for a while and went to bed. So I was up about 50pips on the bottom of the 5am gmt candle. when I got up this morning I was stopped out. entered again this am at 1.5975 on the bottom of the 10am gmt candle.
I only mention candles because that makes it easier for you to see where I was at, at the time. back to priceline now.
hope I got my times right, Iām looking at an Alpari demo chart right now and trying to translate time zones.
So based on just the 14 and center I got in a little late? but not really that much?
Donkeyās X~#!
ah British English, tranlate? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
good I think?
Titaniumā¦ hmmā¦ I may need an implant
LOL
[B]TALOND[/B]
The UKās Donkeyās B-----Kās translates to the US ā[B]Outstanding[/B]ā.
I think the key to your strat is to keep the SL size to no more than 2% - 5% max of account balance. And a stop if not actively managing the trade to around 100 - 150 pips?
I think youre right, I think my stop last night was too small for a 1h time frame even though I was pluss pips instead of minus.
[B]red ear[/B]
Donāt know. I havenāt traded this method with USDCAD & CADJPY.
This particular method works very well with Crude Oil because of itās high volatility. Set an entry on the lower BB on 5m and volitility takes price to upper BB where a predifined limit exit stop is waiting to take profit. Do the reverse for oil PA moving back to the lower BB.
Most of the time you donāt even have to keep an eye on MAās. Just upper and lower BB on 5m.
The biggest problem with the crossover strategies on longer term timeframes is avoiding ranging periods. They work exceptionally well during trending periods because thatās what MAs areā¦trend followers. Thatās aside from the 15 and 5min MAs which work very well at S/R points during most type of markets as long as the volatility/ADR is still good.
Iām trying to have a look at August although to be fair that was a fairly pants month. RC - have you gone further back than 17/09?
Have you tried trailing by the average price of the last 24 periods (to borrow from another strategy completely :)). I canāt hedge with my broker, which is why Iām investiagting a few waysā¦maybe start off with your stop at this level or the outer bollinger.
Looks something like this (Iāve highlighted a potential problem area when price ranges tightly before a breakout):
The only thing I can think to combat ranging periods is to close half your position at 20-30 pips and then trail by this line, which would start off at the breakeven point.
[B]SanMiguel[/B]
I have been following the 1h cross strat for a few weeks now. If you can be in front of a monitor a 50 trailing stop works fine with active management of the trade. I am not sure what size trailing SL you would use as a semi āset and forgetā trading style. Your past 24 period looks a better bet than just an arbitory figue though.