I wasn’t referring to you 
There are traders out there who solely price match an MA on 2 points and trade the 3rd bounce…trend traders effectively and the MA represents the skew of the order books…but you constantly have to recalibrate the MA so it’s not an exact science.
Anybody can make money when an instrument is trending aka established trend aka [B][I]The Trend[/I][/B].
So what’s that supposed to mean…trend traders…?
The last time I have seen a true trend was last year…2008…when Crude Oil started it’s fall from the 140’s.
Anybody who traded that could have made money in his sleep…literally. 
I know plenty of trend traders who haven’t survived in a ranging market. They thought they could trade trending markets the same way as ranging markets. Bad surprise…they got.
I dunno, AU has been doing very well since April - only wish I had gotten in then
By trend trader, I meant a wide ranging group of people that use some form of trend following method to trade an instrument. There are various MA methods which use bounces of the most recent MA that “fits” on a range of charts from 5min upwards, ie it can be short term trends or long term trends. Neither of the following are what you would call [I]The Trend[/I] but they exploit an interim trend - if successful!
[B]Medium term[/B]
They state things like “oh…the daily chart on this pair has been moving up for x days and always seems to bounce off the 21EMA, so tomorrow, I’m going to place a buy order on the value of the 21.” or
[B]Temporary trend[/B]
“the 1hr chart has bounced up perfectly off the 50EMA the last 2 times, so the next time it hits that line, I’m going to wait for a candle confirmation and go long.”
I know plenty of trend traders who haven’t survived in a ranging market. They thought they could trade trending markets the same way as ranging markets. Bad surprise…they got.
Maybe they should have used bollinger bands
I’m off today, holiday here in the U.S. so doing some trading off the shorter time frames. Just caught that down move for about 50 pips. I’d still like to know what caused that big drop at 10:30, I missed it.
just curious what you all think of the new blogger on the home page, huckleberry kiwi?
sounds like someone pretending to be a newbie
BoE inflation report! …just as well you missed it
I also just caught that down move for 50 pips. I’ve been looking at the Daily chart and it looks like we are getting an MA crossover there which could mean a move downward overall? I’m also seeing MACD divergence on the same Daily G/U chart and am wondering if I shouldn’t take a longer term trade Short, heading back down to the 1.6300 S/R line.
Anyone agree with this reasoning? Anyone else believe in MACD Divergence?
Yea, well I missed both drops…too busy reading about what I would be doing and not DOING!!! Plus with price below the 63 sma on the shorter TFs, a bit hesitant on the next move.
news of course, that was a dumb question.
MP, I’m liking the downside too.
cas
Have you traded oil today? I guess not as there’s probably no-one in the pits in NY 
Just wondering if you use the 1hr chart at all - same principle or if you just do 5min boll bounces? Last 2 days of my paper trading worked out nicely, I suspect the last move was largely due to the $ being bought on most pairs (inc. UCAD) and down on oil but I’m not there with fundamentals on this yet and unlikely to be for a while
[B][I]sikday[/I][/B]
It get’s a bit that way doesn’t it. Thinking about it and forgetting doing it. Be assured that it will pass with practice and time.
The second GU plunge this morning 10:25 EST was a AAA+++ 63sma play. The 5m 10:25 EST candle bounced of 63sma with a short wick and PA on 1h way below 63sma. It had to go down.
Next time you’ll catch it.
[B][I]SanMiguel[/I][/B]
No, I didn’t. It’s too slow on days like this.
Just wondering if you use the 1hr chart at all - same principle or if you just do 5min boll bounces?
Same principle as with GU, EU & UCAD.
5m I use mainly for Oil news and when there is volatility increase because of volume shifts.
Plus I use daily and weekly as well with Oil. But that is a different system and approach.
Last 2 days of my paper trading worked out nicely, I suspect the last move was largely due to the $ being bought on most pairs (inc. UCAD) and down on oil but I’m not there with fundamentals on this yet and unlikely to be for a while
Yes that was the influence of the USD that caused the moves. Had nothing to do with Oil PA dynamics and/or Oil fundamentals.
Yeah right…[B]Mini trend[/B]…is also used sometimes. Intellectual headspace bending I would say because it’s too difficult to imagine +2000 pips ranges. Let alone trade it.
It’s bumping up against it again right now on the 5m. It’s so weird to see this tight ranging for over 4 hours, the BB around just 10 pips in width.
I’m waiting to see if my daily chart verifies the MA crossover there and continues south. I am in a Short position on G/U with a 100 SL and a 255 TP in anticipation of that.
I entered with a [email protected] when GU PA bounced off 1.6538 the second time.
+36 pips @ present with S/L moved just below 1h 200sma. Looking @1.6632 as 1st TP.
PA bounced off and spiked 4h 63sma as well
on the 5m is that 63 a sma or a lwma? sma the candle gets close but doesn’t touch it. On lwma the candle touches it.
on the all applicable TF [B]63sma[/B]
So when you say it bounced off 63, it doesnt have to actually touch the sma it only has to get close? So kind of a judgment call, close enough is close enough?
Exactly… the 63 ma is just another tool. Its particularly useful when looking at the outer 20:2 bolls. Take a quick look at the 15m chart now. The upper 20:2 boll on the 15m chart hit the downward 63 ma and PA took a dive. Although sometimes PA will hit the 63 almost to the pip and bounce off. If PA carries on down to the 63 upward ma on the 5m watch for a possible bounce north.
Generally speaking, do you guys look to a genuine breakthrough of the 63 MA (that is, one full candle passing through it and closing on the other side) as a strong indicator of a big pip move in the new direction? If so, how reliable is that historically?
The 63 ma is just (stating the obvious) 63 periods of any TF chart. So a single candle will not be a reliable method of a change of direction. But in the case CAS was highlighting it comes into play i.e. its a significant period that alot of traders follow along with 100 and 200 ma on all TF charts. So naturally there will be a little counter trading when PA hits one of these.