Bollinger band trading with MAs

Try doing as some others…trade the 1hr by itself for a while.
Trade the crossovers and then only trade the smaller timeframes when the 1hr is outside the 20:2 bollinger & it wicks (50%+) & the MAs cross over.
Trading the 5min by itself is dangerous unless it’s a slow PA day. I say dangerous because it can be done but you need other confirmation like trend direction, SR, etc.

An example attached for 40-50pips (1900 16/Nov/2009): exit all at 1hr middle boll or the 15min bottom 20:2 boll or the 15min 60SMA - these should always be considered an exit point.
You are exiting at the middle boll on the longer timeframes as bollinger bands are about the return to equilibrium (that and trading from overbought or oversold levels).
From page 1:

Swing traders must investigate central tendency in every promising opportunity. Market action should spring back toward a centre of gravity after extending in either direction. This axis tends to support price from below and resist it from above during active markets. In flat rangebound periods, price action commonly oscillates back and forth across the pivot until volatility triggers a new directional impulse.
BBs focus analysis of central tendency in real time. To use the bands effectively, apply a central moving average that tunes into the expected holding period…

A further example is the long that started at 11am GMT. I missed this as I was eyeing up the short trade and went out for a coffee but all the signals were there. That would have been around about 150-200pips! You would have stayed in this trade because the price was hugging the 20:1 and 20:3 area…a strong trend (this is 1 of the trend trading parts of boll bands).

…then the short 3hrs before that, which you either would have exited for 40pips or gotten out at breakeven when the long came back the other way. In fact, I could have given up for the week based on yesterday as that target would have been hit 3 times over :slight_smile:
I saw all these trades but preferred to drink some coffee :rolleyes:, instead getting a small percentage of the move at the end of the day-still ok.

My only regret is I keep missing out on all those TalonD 1H crossover trades I set up on a special chart all it’s own. I check them afterward and each one I miss are killer pip gains. :o

Agreed but you’re gonna have to follow the rules for that one and leave the trade alone until it reaches the exit point.
If you trade the 1hr in the above way and it crosses over the middle boll then you could either:

  • leave the trade to run
  • close 50% of it for some guaranteed profit and leave the rest to run
    That’s 1 way to get in early on the crossovers. If it looks like it’s not going to crossover then you could close the rest of the trade.


Some like myself are not professionals but I do well at this strategy.
I have to say when I first started learning it, I was probably using the 5min chart only. Whilst I learnt a hell of a lot about bollinger bounces during that time, it would have been easier to start trading the longer TFs. However, it did set me up for learning more about the longer term trades and the intricacies of the trends and significance of each of the 20:1, 20:2, etc.

Perhaps, we should rewrite some of the first few posts or so a new summary?
It’s the same strategy, just there’s been a lot of talk about different bollinger band settings recently. Presume you guys like the MA crossovers?

SM,
My apology about that.But your are more or less a pro now…:).What i am trying to say in essence is that he needs to stick to one strategy and learn almost everything about that strategy and from there,he can be finetuning the system.But first thing first.BASICS.BB was not covered enough by school of pipsology.He needs more than that.
Only few folks will want to emulate you.Most want to get things quick.Short cut the the answer but i know that it does not work that way.

It is 3.46am EST here in US.I have been indolent these days.Wake up early today to get some pips today.

Is anyone thinking of taking the short at present?
It looks like it’s stuck at the high from yesterday evening.
However, it can’t break the 60SMA on the 15min chart yet is very gradually moving upwards, 1hr middle boll approaching and still pointing to 2 o’clock.

Quick 15min chart trade from 52 to 27, exited at 15min 60SMA.

Or use 1 chart as per RC’s posts. Simply open up either a 15min or 5min chart but add the 1hr bollingers to it and then only trade when price reaches the 1hr bollinger. Roughly a 240:2 on the 5min chart is the same as the 1hr - just make sure you mark off SR points on it.

Where do you get that set-up from…? Surely not from this thread. :smiley:

5m,15m,1h have 3,6,9,14 LWMAs
5m,15m have 1:20,2:20,3:20 Bolls
1h,4h have 2:20,3:20 Bolls

ALL TF have a 63sma and 200sma.

5:1 Boll [Tunnel of 5] on 5m & 15m

[B]S&R areas 1d,4h,1h…!!![/B]

Now that’s the original set-up…the rest is personal flavours from different people.

I still use this…I have deleted 14 LWMA because I don’t need it…but that’s me.

When you use this original set-up and get to know what PA is doing on your chosen pair…you won’t need anything else.

Oil is most def Cas’ area of expertise but I have begun to take an interest… I have arranged a visit to Chevron Oil trading floor, Canary Wharf, London for Friday to try and find out what its all about? :slight_smile:

Another 60SMA/63SMA play on the 15min chart…(middle of 1hr)?
Most reports are a bit undecided on cable at present…:rolleyes:

Actually, I got it from the first post by SanMiguel. It’s the section that’s in quotes there:

Originally Posted by [B]R Carter[/B]
[I]Have a 15m & 1h GU chart open at all times. Set up a 7/14 LWMA on the 15m and 2/4 LWMA on the 1h. Both charts also need to have a 2 std dev bollinger.

Method 1) When price breaks the upper/lower bollinger on the 1h its usually overbought/ sold. Wait for a wick and a change of candle colour and trade the opposite way (towards the centre line bollinger).

Method 2) Using moving averages to trade. Using the LWMA is really simple. On the 15m chart set the 7 LWMA to green. Set the 14 LWMA to red. When green is on top trade long. When red is on top trade short. Same with the 1 h chart. [/I]

I know you guys started altering it to the 3/6/9 but I guess I wanted to try understanding the original idea first, before I started trying to follow your alterations.

SanMiguel’s idea to rewrite the original posts to reflect the changes and new ideas might be a good idea.

OK, I will try this.

I think where I am confused is on this tunnel issue. I’ve never had more than a 2:20 std dev Boll on any chart and it all seemed confusing what you guys were discussing about tunnels. It just sort of left me in the dust.

So are you still placing orders on ma crossovers alone or are there other considerations (besides S/R areas)?

How should one take into account the various BBs?

How should one consider the 63 and 200 smas? I have them on my chart but am not sure how much importance I should place on them after watching PA seem to move freely over them.

Merchantprince - you have read my mind exactly! I just finished drafting a note to Cas with the exact same questions. Glad I am not the only one feeling a bit lost!

Thank you for that advice. I have been trading off the Daily, Hourly and 15m charts (it looks like the 20 and 50 EMAs rarely crossover on the 4H). I look at the 5m chart before entering the trade but if I see a crossover on the 15m, I pretty much just go for it.

One reason I still keep MT4 open is that I have the 5m charts for all the major pairs with STARC bands added. (This is a holdover from my time working with the Tymen Ultimate Candlestick method.) So I only look at the 5m long enough to see if the STARCs are going my way before I jump in.

But I have been taking all but one trade off either the 1H or 15m charts.

I appreciate your examples, as well. It seems I miss many good trades because I am not up early enough in the morning to catch them; oftentimes the best moves are at 5 am to 8 am EST.

RC,
Thanks for this information.I am definitely interested in Oil.It is cool that you would go to Chevron Oil trading floor to see how things work.Please keep me informed about your findings.I want to devote extensive time to Oil next month.
Regards,
John

I missed this.Slept off.I really dont like this New York time.:slight_smile:

Bound to be me causing trouble…:slight_smile:
Actually, there are edits at the bottom of the 1st post.
I never took off the originals because it would have gone from a page of current settings into 10s of pages about completely different settings and would have looked odd.

Well, I took that as a 2nd opportunity to get into a 1hr crossover trade that I didn’t get into earlier. It’s at breakeven but I can’t be sure about it until it passes under the 60SMA on the 1hr chart looks promising for the moment.

15min chart: 2 x 5min spikes plus bounce of 20:2 + bounce off 60SMA.
1hr chart: same area was a bounce off the middle bollinger.
I should have been in the trade from earlier today but I took a small number of pips on that one compared to how much it moved because at the time it was looking like going up! :slight_smile:

Trade A was in the morning.
Trade B is current (1.6803)…at the time I was a little worried about the rise in PA from 1.6756, which is a trade I missed (1hr spike outside the 20:2).

Edit: stopped out b/e.


My apologies. I’ve never read that post. :smiley:

RC did some tests with LWMAs shortly afterwards and he recommended 3,6,9,14…delete LWMAs that are not needed by individual preference.

The higher the TF the less useful LWMAs are because they are too slow. On 1h even a 9 is a bit slow but I still use it because it has saved my butt more than once in regards to entries.

I think where I am confused is on this tunnel issue. I’ve never had more than a 2:20 std dev Boll on any chart and it all seemed confusing what you guys were discussing about tunnels. It just sort of left me in the dust.

5:1 aka ‘tunnel of 5’ is a boll within boll… 20:2 for overall direction and 5:1 for fine tuning.

When PA steps outside both its a pretty certain indication its over bought/ over sold.

I am looking for entries when PA either steps outside the 5:1 boll and/or in conjunction with the 20:2 boll in the usual way taking S&R lines into account. First TP target middle 2:20 boll…second TP target upper 2:20 boll.

Only close trades when PA has a close outside of ‘tunnel of 5’ if it looks like PA doesn’t make it to the middle/upper 2:20 boll.

Avoid trading in the “tunnel of 5”. Pretty good exercise in patience. :smiley:

So are you still placing orders on ma crossovers alone or are there other considerations (besides S/R areas)?

The ‘tunnel of 5’ is in fact a replacement for the 3,6,9,14 LWMAs. You can either take your signals of the ‘tunnel of 5’ and 2:20 boll and/or wait till the LWMAs line up. Your personal preference. I would use both on 5m,15m in the beginning and see for youself what you fell comfortable with.

How should one take into account the various BBs?

PA moves outside 3:20 boll…it’s over bought/over sold. If that happens on two or three TF at once…like yesterday with GU…I enter…as soon as candle started to show a wick.

Normally PA moves between 2:20,1:20 boll. And/or straddles outer 2:20 boll if it’s trending. The ‘tunnel of 5’ tracks PA closely and moves within 2:20,1:20 boll. That what it means ‘a boll within a boll’.

When to take trades depends on PA day aka "bolli bounce day’. Not every day is the same. In general…the longer the wicks in 1h candles the better the bolli bounces.

I would observe your TF of choice…5m or 15m…and just look at PA and how it moves between bolls. That gives a pretty good idea how the different bolls react to PA and vice versa. PA and boll behaviour repeats itself.

How should one consider the 63 and 200 smas? I have them on my chart but am not sure how much importance I should place on them after watching PA seem to move freely over them.

63 and 200sma’s act as price lines. PA respects these sma’s. More often than not…when bolls are tight a breakout starts with a bounce off a 63sma on 5m,15m.

It get’s you in right at the top of a PA movement.

Thanks Cas. Exactly what I needed!!

I am glad it helps.

There is a hell of a lot more to this system. And you can use it in many different ways. But the basics are applied in the same way regardless how you chose to use it.

First of all I would get familiar with behaviour of the bolls in relation how PA moves. Paying a great deal of attention to the way bolls are pointing. Whether they are pointing up, down or flat. Like 1 o’clock…3 o’clock…5 o’clock. That tells you a great deal about PA’s intentions.

Also pay attention whether bolls are wide…widening…or tight…tightening…on 5m or 15m…prefered choice…1h and 4h.

If you beginning to read and interpretating boll behaviour…you will find that this sytem will beginning to make sense. Anticipating boll behaviour would be the next stage. And after that you’ll be able to predict probable PA behaviour taken from your understanding and anticipation of boll behaviour.

This is really the essence of this system. And PA behaviour in S&R areas.

You might enter late in the beginning and exit early. But after a couple of times you’ll find boll and PA behaviour repeat itself. And then you enter five pips earlier and exit five pips later. Your confidence builds…and after that you enter another 5 pips earlier and stay in the whole move…because you anticipating PA goes to a certain point…you have seen it before…bolls tell ya…LWMAs tell ya…and eventually PA will get there. And if for some reason bolls and LWMAs tell you something different you get out with whatever you got. :smiley:

Until the next time…that’s how you develop and gain experience…

[B][I]R Carter[/I][/B]

You’ll love that…:smiley:

Is that the prop desk and/or commercial hedgers…?

If it’s the prop desk you’ll feel right at home because the are active in trading currency pairs, too. :smiley: