British Pound Cross Pick 06.25.09

[B]My picks:[/B] Pending Long GBP/CHF
[B]Expertise:[/B] Fundamentals and Technicals
[B]Average Time Frame of Trades:[/B] 2 - 10 Days

Speculation for an intervention by the Swiss National Bank pushed the GBP/CHF higher during the week, and the pair may make another attempt to push above 1.8150-60 (78.6% Fib of 1.5124-1.8976) as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. Credit Suisse overnight index swaps shows market participants expect the Bank of England to tighten policy over the next 12 months as the outlook for growth and inflation improves, while investors anticipate the SNB to keep a floor on the exchange rate in an effort stem the downside risks for the economy. With the pound-franc paring the sharp advance from the previous session, I have place a long entry at 1.7652, the 20-Day SMA, and set my target to 1.8117, the yearly high, with the stop at 1.7480, the 61.8% Fib.