Recent commentary mentioned that “the GBPCHF remains in a 4th wave correction that will complete as either a triangle or flat. The rally from 1.9421 to 2.0963 is in 3 waves and is wave A of the triangle (or flat). Wave B most likely ended at 2.0012 and wave C is underway now for a break of 2.0963.
As we’ve commented on in past weeks, “5 waves up confirms our long term bullish bias. Expect a corrective decline to command the bulk of the next 2 months.” A corrective decline has unfolded, bringing the GBPCAD back to the midpoint of the wave 4 triangle. A deeper decline into the 61.8% at 1.9716 is possible but the rally from 1.9919 could be the beginning of a 3rd wave, therefore a bullish bias is warranted against there.
We wrote last update that “the GBPAUD came under 2.0547, potentially completing a flat correction in the process. This flat would be an expanded flat. In expanded flats, wave b exceeds the origin of wave a and wave c ends just beyond the origin of wave b. That is the case here. There is a good chance that the GBPAUD accelerates higher in the coming days and weeks.” The GBPAUD has accelerated and price should continue higher in this 3rd wave (or C wave) from 2.0393. A break above 2.0933 is what we expect at minimum.
The most recent update stated that “we maintain that this move higher from the double bottom near 2.40 will continue although near term, there is potential for a sizeable decline; to at least 2.5775. Longer term, the GBPNZD has overcome the 200 day SMA, which bodes well bulls. Look to buy on dips near the mentioned 2.5775 area.” The most recent dip ended at 2.5863 and price has accelerated higher, nearing 2.67 today. Price should remain above 2.5863 as the rally continues from current levels.
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[B]TREND ANALYSIS[/B] is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
[B]SCHEDULE[/B]
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD