British Pound Crosses Fall Hard - Little Relief in Sight


Commentary - After pressing against 243.00 this week, the GBPJPY has slipped over 400 pips. A break of 236.41 would indicate that the longer term trend has turned down, but there are clues that the reversal is occurring right now. Daily RSI is under 50 and price has dropped below the 21 day SMA today. The SMA is at 240.19 and a daily close below would bolster the bearish prospects. Near term resistance is at 240.38 and 240.99. Short term potential support is at the 161.85 extension of 242.97-240.60/242.11 at 238.28.
Strategy - Bearish against 242.11, target TBD

Commentary - The GBPCHF continues to range within a slightly upward sloping channel. A break of this channel indicates additional bearish potential. GBPCHF is susceptible to a new high (above 2.4437) until channel support is broken. We do not see a clear opportunity until the channel is broken, but it seems likely that the break will be to the downside as the pair reversed at the 78.6% of 2.4757-2.3288 at 2.4443. The entire rally from 2.3288 is viewed as a correction of the 2.4757-2.3288 decline.
Strategy - Sell channel break (near 2.4150 right now), resistance would be 2.4437 and target would be below 2.3288

Commentary - The break below 2.3733 confirms that wave 3 down is underway. The next bearish price target is where wave 3 (beginning at 2.4295) would equal wave 1 (2.5492-2.3733) at 2.2536. Resistance should be strong at 2.3921.
Strategy - Bearish now, against 2.4295, target 1 is 2.2540