British Pound Crosses Poised for Breakouts


Commentary - There is little change to the outlook as the GBPJPY has traded sideways all week. We maintain that the entire decline from the top (251.10) is large wave A within an A-B-C correction that will bring price back near 200.00. The rally from 219.30 is wave B of the rally. B waves are often tricky (like this one). The advance from 219.30-235.50 would be wave a of B while everything else is b of B. Wave c of B is expected to test at least the 61.8% of 251.10-219.30 at 238.95 and possibly the 78.6% at 244.29 before a top and reversal. However, it is unclear whether this advance unfolds while holding 227.40 support.
Strategy - Look to get bearish close to 238.95-244.29 for a drop below 219.30

Commentary - We wrote last week that this countertrend move will end near the 50%-61.8% retracement of 2.4963-2.3758 at 2.4361-2.4503. Look for a top and reversal there to be followed by a re-test of the support line drawn off of the July 2006 and March 2007 lows." The high this week was at 2.4426 (in the zone) and price has rolled over so look for a test of the mentioned trendline in coming weeks.
Strategy - Remain bearish against 2.4963, target below 2.3288.

Commentary - Not surprisingly, the GBPAUD looks identical to the EURAUD. We are reiterating what we wrote about the EURAUD yesterday in the topbottom trading report, found here EURAUD . Since the 8/17 high (2.5638), the declines are clearly in 3 wave formations and therefore corrective. Expect a break above 2.5638 in coming weeks. A push through 2.4862 bolsters the bullish bias. Risk should be kept to 2.4205 in trading this pattern.
Strategy - Flat

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist of