-GBPCHF may be in a triangle
-GBPCAD bounces from support line
-GBPAUD resistance begins at 2.1430
-GBPNZD enters Fibonacci zone
[B]
British Pound / Swiss Franc[/B]
The rally from the December low reached 1.75 and the advance is in 3 waves (corrective), but is the initial leg of what will be either a triangle or flat as a 4th wave. If a triangle is underway, then the GBPCHF should find a top in wave C (triangles unfold in 5 waves; A-B-C-D-E) soon and trade lower over the next month or so in wave D.
[B]
British Pound / Canadian Dollar[/B]
1.67 to 1.86 has been the range thus far in 2009 for the GBPCAD. Most recently, the pair has rolled over from a double top at 1.84. Range trading is the order of the day now, but a cautious bullish bias is warranted against 1.7542 in preparation for a break above 1.84. The pair is holding above a support line, which favors bulls.
[B]
British Pound / Australian Dollar[/B]
The GBPAUD continues lower and the larger trend is down as long as price is below 2.2880. Near term strength is likely but expect resistance in the 2.1432-2.1765 zone (defined by the 50%-61.8% retracement of the decline from 2.2880-2.0076). The 55 day SMA reinforces resistance in that zone near 2.15.
[B]
British Pound / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
GBPNZD waves are quite clear at the current juncture. A multi-year triangle is complete at 2.8968. Confirming completion of the triangle is the decline from 2.8968, which exhibits the 5 wave impulse pattern. A small second wave is underway now. The zone to expect a top is 2.6383-2.7342. This is a large zone, but not in the context of what is expected to be a multi year downtrend from 2.8968.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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