British Pound / Swiss Franc
Strength could persist to the 100% extension of the rally from 1.5113-1.7496; which is at 1.8223. This level intersects with channel resistance at the end of June (June 29th to be exact). Long term, I still maintain that a 5th wave will complete the entire decline from the 2007 top.
British Pound / Canadian Dollar
For months, I have continued to favor “the upside and eventual break above 1.8433”, citing “the decline from the February high as an expanded flat (completed at 1.7378).” Price finally pushed through the target. A potential target going forward is 1.9085 (100% extension of 1.6711-1.8418, this level intersects with November 2008 highs). Near term, a decline below 1.8337 would expose Fibonacci support at 1.8262.
British Pound / Australian Dollar
Divergence with RSI at the recent low favors GBPAUD strength as does the push through trendline resistance. MACD (daily) has turned positive as well. Initial resistance now is at 2.0912 but a much larger advance is possible. The pair is at the lower end of a decade + range. It is worth noting that May’s candle sports a long wick and small body. This is the type of candle that is usually seen at bottoms.
British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
Near term, the GBPNZD remains stuck in a range. There are 2 likely outcomes from here. One is that an expanded flat is underway that will end above 2.6498. The other count treats the consolidation since the low in late March as a triangle.
[I]Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>
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