-GBPCHF reverses from near channel resistance / Fibonacci extension
-GBPCAD testing Fibonacci extension as resistance
-GBPAUD and GBPNZD working higher from long term range lows
British Pound / Swiss Franc
The GBPCHF reversed just shy of the 100% extension of the rally from 1.5113-1.7496; which is at 1.8223. Long term, I maintain that a 5th wave decline will complete the entire decline from the 2007 top. A wave 4 high may be in place at 1.8123. Coming under the confluence of the 200 day SMA / channel support would bolster the bearish outlook.
British Pound / Canadian Dollar
The GBPCAD hit the 1.9085 target (100% extension of 1.6711-1.8418 and November 2008 highs).” With the pair exceeding the 200 day SMA, it is possible that a long term trend change has taken place (the GPBCAD has been declining albeit in a choppy manner, since 1998). The rally from 1.7378 is unfolding as an impulse and is either a C wave that completes a 3 wave correction from 1.6711 or wave i of a larger 3rd wave. Near term, one more high (above 1.9309) is required in order to complete 5 waves up from 1.7378. Following completion of the small 5th, the risk of at least a pullback will be high.
British Pound / Australian Dollar
The GBPAUD continues to trade near the bottom of a decade + range. On the daily, there is evidence of a bullish base that will eventually propel the pair much higher. A resistance line from October 2008 failed to hold. Since that break, the GBPAUD has traded higher in a choppy yet parallel channel. A break above the top of the channel would likely lead to an acceleration of the advance.
British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
Since early 2008, the GBPNZD has traded in a contracting range. With price now at the lower end of that range, the upside is favored. Potential resistance on a break above 2.6500 is the 200 day SMA above 2.6600.
[I]Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>[/I]