Latest CFTC Release Dated June 26th , 2007:
[B][U]Net non-commercial Implied positioning in USD[/U][/B]
[B]US Dollar Index:[/B] Implied net positioning fell significantly last week, suggesting that selling pressure has returned and that the index is heded to a new low. Although positioning remains above its 12 week average, the sharp increase in short positions must be respected. Sentiment remains bearish.
[B][U]Net non-commercial IMM positioning in EUR[/U][/B]
[B]EUR:[/B] The interpretation of the data is the same for the euro, but in the opposite direction of course. After falling from extreme levels, euro longs increased sharply last week, which sets the stage for a test of 1.3680.
[B][U]Net non-commercial IMM positioning in GBP[/U][/B]
[B]GBP:[/B] British pound longs increased significantly. The record for net positioning was 94,728 in late January of this year, the week that Cable topped at 1.9914 (and fell to 1.9128 6 weeks later). This week?s net positioning sets a new record at 96,134. Similar to the euro, the pound could challenge and exceed the high at 2.0131 but the amount of longs in the market favors a turn. Commercial interest is the lowest since July 2004. A lack of commercial demand typically precedes a top and reversal. Expect the pound to underperform on the crosses.
[U][B]Net non-commercial IMM positioning in CHF
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[B]CHF:[/B] CHF short positions have declined from record lows, signaling that the CHF is set to strengthen for an extended period. Given the opposite outlook for the pound, the GBPCHF is likely a good candidate for a long term short position.
[B][U]Net non-commercial IMM positioning in JPY[/U][/B]
[B]JPY:[/B] JPY short positions are at a new record this week as sentiment remains extremely bearish towards the JPY. The risk of a reversal is extremely high. Commercial demand is the highest since the second week in February. The USDJPY fell over 700 pips throughout the rest of that month.
[U][B]Net non-commercial IMM positioning in CAD[/B][/U]
[B]CAD:[/B] We wrote last week that “net long positions remain extreme, increasing the odds of a turn in the CAD.” The USDCAD has turned higher. Continued USDCAD strength is favored.
[B][U]Net non-commercial IMM positioning in AUD[/U][/B]
[B]AUD:[/B] Positioning in the Aussie did not change much last week. Net positioning increased from 65,213 the week prior to 66,975. With the AUDUSD breaking to new highs, fading is a dangerous proposition but those already long may want to keep risk tight as commercial demand is low.