British Pound Most Bullish Since November 2005

Latest CFTC Release Dated January 01, 2008:

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The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over the last 52 weeks. A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).

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[B]13 Week COT Index:[/B] see description just below the COT Index table


[B]US Dollar Index: [/B]The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 10 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 88. The 52 week COT index has rolled over from 100 and is at 86. USD should continue to decline.
[B]Signal: [/B]Bearish


[B]EUR: [/B]The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 86 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 4. The 52 week index appears to have bottomed at 0 and had turned up and is now at 4. Conditions are bullish for the Euro.
[B]Signal: [/B]Bullish


[B]GBP[/B]: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 96 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 0. Cable is at a bearish sentiment extreme and should bottom very soon (maybe this week).
[B]Signal: [/B]Forming a bottom


[B]CHF:[/B] The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 24 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is 69. The most recent extreme registered on the 52 week index was a bullish one but the most recent extreme registered on the 13 week index was a bearish one. With momentum towards CHF strength intact, remain bullish on CHF until further notice (bearish USDCHF).


[B]JPY: [/B]The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 20 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 77. sentiment regarding the JPY has turned from a bullish extreme so favor the downside.
[B]Signal: [/B]Bearish


[B]CAD: [/B]The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 35 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 49. The 52 week measure is trending down, indicating that the larger trend is down.
[B]Signal: [/B]Bearish


[B]AUD:[/B] The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 75 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 20. The 52 and 13 week COT indices are at 8 and 17. All indicators are turning from close to bearish extremes, so favor the upside.
[B]Signal: [/B]Bullish


[B]NZD:[/B] The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 22 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 31. The 52 and 13 week COT indices are at 41 and 67. COT information warrants a cautious bullish stance since the indices are trending up.

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