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[B]- Euro Near Term Bearish[/B] -
[B]- Japanese Yen Wave 2 Unfolding[/B] -
[B]- British Pound to Test at least 1.9961[/B] -
[B]- Swiss Franc Pivot at 1.1960[/B] -
[B]- Canadian Dollar Pivot at 1.0676[/B] -
[B]- Australian Dollar Multiple Possibilities[/B] -
[B]- New Zealand Dollar Could See .7500 This Week[/B]
[B]Commentary[/B]: We are working with a few counts currently but both point lower near term. It is possible that 5 waves higher are complete at 1.3719. A decline should unfold then correctively with potential for a bottom to form near 1.3497 (61.8% of 1.3360-1.3719). Another count has the entire rally from 1.3360 as larger wave B within a more complex correction from 1.3852. If this is a correct count, then wave C of the correction may be underway from 1.3719 and price is headed much lower, below 1.3360 and to the 1.3000 area. Either way, look lower near term. If the decline from 1.3719 unfolds in 5 waves (impulse), then the count that has the EURUSD headed below 1.3360 will be favored.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Bearish now, against 1.3719, target 1.3510 and TBD
[B]Commentary[/B]: Bigger picture, the USDJPY has traced out 5 waves lower (which is large wave 1)from 124.13 to 111.59, indicating a large degree trend change. Since the low at 111.59, it is our contention that an A-B-C correction is unfolding as large wave 2. Within this A-B-C, wave C might be underway from 113.86, targeting 119.34 (61.8% of 124.13-111.59) to complete wave 2 from 111.59. The best opportunity will be to the downside for wave 3 lower so look for a top and reversal near 119.00/50
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat (waiting for wave 3 bearish opportunity)
[B]Commentary[/B]: The structure of Cable is similar to the EURUSD. 5 waves higher may have ended at 2.0233, so we are looking for a decline to at least the prior 4th wave at 1.9961. The 61.8% of 1.9651-2.0233 is also a potential bottoming point. An alternate count is much more bearish and places Cable in a large wave C decline from 2.0233 within a larger complex correction from 2.0632.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Move to flat (previously bullish)
[B]Commentary[/B]: There is no change to the outlook that calls for a terminal thrust to come under 1.1815 while 1.2215 remains intact. “The daily chart shows a clear 5 wave rally from the December 2004 low to the November 2005 high. Everything since has been a correction. However, the correction is not complete. A complex correction has unfolded from the November 2005 high (W-X-Y). Wave X is a triangle, which means that we should expect a terminal thrust lower to complete the correction. The thrust to 1.1815 is most likely just the first leg of wave Y lower. As such, we are looking for price to come under 1.1815 before any meaningful bottom is in place.”
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat (best idea here is to sell breaks lower?.first bearish pivot at 1.1960)
[B]Commentary[/B]: Near term USDCAD price action is choppy and corrective as well, which makes trading this pair on a short term basis risky right now. When price action is choppy, we prefer to sit tight and wait for a clearer pattern to emerge. The longer term charts (we are showing the weekly today) indicate that a significant bottom may be in place at 1.0340. A rally above 1.0676 most likely leads to a break above 1.0866. Short term, there is a possible head and shoulders continuation pattern, which is bearish. This pattern would suggest a retest of 1.0340 while 1.0676 remains intact.
[B]Strategy: [/B]Bullish on a break above 1.0676, against 1.0340, target TBD
[B]Commentary[/B]: The AUDUSD is correcting the .8870-.7673 decline. The 3 wave movements at varrying degrees of trend make this clear. There are a number of possibilities right now, too many to take a strong stand one way or the other. Price could come under .8051 to test the 61.8% of .7673-.8333 in a b wave before proceeding higher in wave c to complete the correction from .7673?.or a b wave bottom may already be in place and price could continue higher from above .8051 to complete the c wave. A rally through .8234 favors the latter scenario and a drop under .8051 favors the former.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
[B]Commentary:[/B] Naturally, the Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUDUSD. Since the NZDUSD already tested the 61.8% of .6639-.7272 at .6881, it seems more likely that a B wave low is already in place at .6869 and that price is headed higher in wave C to test .7500 before a reversal. .7501 is the 100% extension of .6639-.7272/.6869 and .7547 is the 61.8% retracement of .8082-.6639.
[B]Strategy:[/B] Remain bullish, against .6869, target .7500