BTC AND XRP From FXopen

[FXopenTrader]

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways since last week as it came up to $40,000 area but then fell to $33,813 at its lowest point yesterday. This occurred after recovery and now we are seeing another minor one with the price reaching $37,486. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory.

Looking at the 4 hour chart, you can see that the price made it slightly below the 0.382 Fib level on Sunday’s low but managed to pull back up above it. This could indicate that support has been found but we are still yet to see if it manages to exceed the local high at the 0.618 Fib level.

The primary scenario is one in which we are seeing an ABC correction of a higher degree and so far this has played out. The downfall below the 0.5 Fibonacci level has confirmed the previously assumed ABC to the upside which is the B wave from the higher degree count.

This is why from here we would be expecting the continuation to the downside, but that might not come as expected. The C wave which was projected to the downside should have been developing a five-wave impulse but has instead made a three-wave decrease followed by a recovery.

Now if the price continues increasing this count might get invalidated but this would potentially still be the part of the correctional count which is set to push the price lower.

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has been increasing and came up by 13.87% from its yesterday’s low at $0.2714 to $0.309 where it is now being traded.

On the 4-hour chart, you can see that the price broke out from the descending triangle on the upside after the third interaction with the horizontal support level was made. As the price found support there we have seen a bounce that led the price for a breakout and a higher high was made compared to the previous local one.

This could be the start of the 5th wave from the five-wave impulse that started in December last year after the price made the end of the significant downside move. The price hasn’t made it inside the territory of the 1st wave which makes this scenario valid and now if we are seeing the development of the 5th wave it is set to push the price of Ripple higher then on the 7th of January where the ending point of the 3rd wave is.

[Clint]

@FXopenTrader

The price of Bitcoin … fell to $33,813 at its lowest point yesterday.

Your BTC/USD chart was out-of-date by four days (twenty-four 4-hour candles), when you posted it this afternoon.

Accordingly, your commentary on bitcoin, which you based on that chart, was also 4 days out-of-date.

The low price which occurred yesterday was 28,732 — not 33,813 as you stated.

[FXopenTrader]

Bitcoin is trading slightly above $33,000 after plunging from January’s peak near $42,000. Investors, speculators, and analysts believe that the pioneer cryptocurrency can hit price levels beyond $40,000. However, strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co say that the uptrend may be an uphill battle in light of decreasing demand from Grayscale, the most prominent digital asset manager in the world.

Flop in institutional demand for Bitcoin weakens uptrend to $40,000

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust has grown to $20 billion over the last few months due to increasing demand as the largest digital asset rallied month-over-month to the record high near $40,000. However, over the last couple of weeks, the fund has dropped 22%, surpassing BTC’s 17% plunge in the same period, according to Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the lead strategist JPMorgan.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust

The investment bank strategist has found out that the decrease in institutional fund influx may hinder the uptrend to $40,000. At the same time, the risk is that momentum traders will continue to unwind Bitcoin futures positions.” JPMorgan maintains that “the near-term balance of risks is still skewed to the downside.”

It is worth noting that holders of Bitcoins with coins between 1,000 and 10,000 gave consistently increased over the last 30 days. According to the holder distribution model, an on-chain metric developed a Santiment, behavioral analysis platform; these addresses shot up from roughly 2,100 to approximately 2,350. The 10% rise shows that buying pressure behind Bitcoin is still growing despite the fall in price.

Bitcoin holder distribution

Bitcoin is trading at $33,380 at the time of writing. Slightly on the upside, bulls are dealing with a hurdle presented by the 50 Simple Moving Average. Moreover, more resistance is highlighted at $34,000.

The pioneer cryptocurrency’s uptrend will be validated if the price closes the day above $34,000 and the 50 SMA on the 4-hour chart. For now, the least resistance path is sideways, as shown by the leveling Relative Strength Index.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

On the downside, Bitcoin is not out of the wounds yet, and the short term support at the 200 SMA may be retest, especially if the resistance at $34,000 remains unshaken. Other key levels to keep in mind include $32,000, $30,000 and $28,000.

[FXopenTrader]

XRP/USD

stays strong near the recently flashed intraday high of 0.2767, currently around 0.32760, during early Monday. In doing so, the crypto pair flirts with 200-bar SMA while extending the weekend bounce off 0.2692.

With the MACD and RSI conditions further smoothening the drive for XRP/USD buyers, the quote is likely to confirm the falling wedge bullish chart pattern established since January 10.

[FXopenTrader]

BTC/USD

From yesterday’s open the price of Bitcoin has increased by 12.44% coming from its lowest point of $31,030 to $34,891 at its highest but has since then made a downfall. The price fell back to the same levels as on yesterday’s low and is now starting to make another recovery attempt. Currently it is sitting at around $32,221.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a recovery from the 22nd of January when it fell to $28,785 at its lowest wick. The decrease to those levels was the completion of the 3rd wave from the corrective structure that started developing after the all-time high.

We could have seen the completion of the correction, but the wave structure is still looking more corrective than impulsive on the recovery that followed. This is why more likely, we are seeing the corrective wave continuation in the form of the second wave X from the WXYXZ complex count.

As you can see the price made a descending triangle from its all-time high and since it made interaction with its resistance level, now we are going to have a validation of the assumed scenario as if the price is in a prolonged correction now the Z wave is shortly going to start developing. That means that now a breakout to the downside would be shortly expected.

If this starts developing the price of Bitcoin could fall back to the $24,000 area where the next significant horizontal support level in line with the downside. This would be a downfall of just over 30% which would be a highly significant one.

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has been moving sideways from the 22nd of January when it spiked down to $0.24 area from where it made a recovery to $0.28 level. Since the price has been in this horizontal range we have seen further support and resistance testing with the price currently sitting at $0.26645.

As you can see from the hourly chart, the price has previously made a breakout to the upside from the descending triangle in which it was since the 8th of January but failed to continue moving to the upside. The assumed scenario was the five-wave impulse to the upside but since the price spiked inside the territory of the 1st wave this is starting to get invalidated. Instead, more likely we have seen a three-wave upside corrective move before further downside continuation.

However, the quick spike on the 22nd could have been the completion of the 4th wave although unlikely at this point. In the upcoming period, we are going to see if the invalidation gets confirmed and that is going to be indicated from the breakout direction of the current horizontal range.

[FXopenTrader]

BTC/USD

From Monday’s high at $11843 the price of Bitcoin has decreased by 2.64% measured to today’s low at $11530. This is still a higher low compared to the low point made last Saturday, August 22nd from where we have seen the start of recovery which lead to the higher high made on Monday and is currently again in an upward trajectory sitting at $11653.

Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the price is again back above the pivot point that was the ending point of the first sub-wave of the previous upward move, now validated as the wave A from the ABC correction count to the upside. As you can see the price hasn’t made the 5th wave out of the lower degree count before starting to move to my projected level in the bearish scenario I pointed out last week which is the ascending support from the range in which the price has been correcting since the 2nd of August.

Today the price came back to retest the ascending support level and made a bounce from it indicating that the support is still present, which is why we are likely to see this recovery continuing for another higher high at least. But if we have seen the end of the correction that started from the 2nd of August, the price count continues moving into the start of the higher degree 5th wave and breakout from the mentioned range, moving above $12400 level.

XRP/USD

The price of Ripple has decreased by 3.47% from yesterday’s high at $0.29243 as it fell to $0.28228 at its lowest point today. At the moment, the price is being traded slightly higher as it started moving to the upside after finding support on the still unconfirmed ascending channel.

On the hourly chart, you can see that another upside move would be expected from where with a higher high which would be the 5th wave out of the next higher degree move to the upside which could be the starting impulse. Prior to the recovery that started last Saturday, August 22nd, we have seen a decrease of 16.6% from the $0.3277 high made last Monday. The decrease was made in a three-wave manner slightly above my second target around the levels of the horizontal support from the 12th of August when the previous A wave to the upside is.

This could mean that the higher degree correction that started on the 2nd of August has ended and that we are seeing the first wave out of the next impulsive move to the upside. We are soon going to receive validation if the price continues increasing for another 5th wave and makes a higher high, validating the current ascending channel.