The interest rate announcement on the 27th of this month is eagerly anticipated, with a potential 25 basis points increase likely. The currency market shows a clear negative correlation with the US stock market, but the financial landscape is undergoing significant changes, and Bitcoin remains resilient. Notably, institutional data reveals important insights: long-term Bitcoin holders now possess a record high of 14.52 million bitcoins, equivalent to 75% of the circulating supply. Additionally, the balance of Bitcoin exchanges has declined to levels last seen in early 2018, with only 11% of bread (Bitcoin) currently in circulation on exchanges. Furthermore, Bitcoin whale’s share of exchange inflows has surged to a one-year high of over 40%. These data indicate that institutions have become the primary force in the Bitcoin market, awaiting consensus from retail investors. In essence, if the current bitcoin dip impacts institutions, it is retail investors who may seize the opportunity to buy at lower prices.
Yesterday afternoon, Bitcoin fell below the lower edge of the $29,400 range and broke the short line. The next support level is expected around $28,500, and if the rally doesn’t reach $29,500, testing the next strong support at $27,500-27,800 is plausible. Short-term traders can mainly focus on high altitude, spot, and other adjustments until the end of the approach.
In the currency market, external information primarily drives price movements, as there are no new narratives within the market itself to push prices higher. The rally potential is limited, but in case of an emotional crash, smaller losses may resonate better with many short-term investors.
The current fall in Bitcoin’s price can be viewed from two perspectives:
Firstly, it might trigger market stop-loss orders. Given Bitcoin’s recent consolidation for nearly a month, many investors might have set their stop-loss orders below the range. If the price breaks the range, it will naturally activate these stop-loss orders, leading to a significant price decline. This behavior is common in the market.
Secondly, the market might be anticipating a fall due to the Federal Reserve meeting. Some investors may choose to exit the market in advance to avoid risks. With insufficient market liquidity, any evident “blood drawing” situation could naturally occur.
As for WLD, which is now online, some observations can be made:
WLD is gaining traction with its recent online launch on major exchanges, somewhat reminiscent of ARB’s rise.
WLD positions itself as an AI project, attempting to ride the AI trend, but it seems that AI’s hot streak has cooled down, similar to AGIX and FET, which also surged in the previous round of trends.
WLD’s online launch has led to a tenfold increase in its circulating market value, reaching 300 million. If we include the locked or unreleased tokens, the undiluted market value stands at 25 billion.
While the medium and long-term prospects may not offer significant growth potential, there could be room for speculation in the short term, especially before any unlocking of tokens leads to selling pressure. Personally, I believe that 2 could be a short-term support level, and if it falls below, it might stabilize around 1.3.
Once the current wave of airdrop pressure subsides, the next market rebound could lead to favorable performance.
Based on the current market price, the $3 billion valuation would position WLD as the 30th largest cryptocurrency by market value, surpassing Monero, and placing it within the market value range of $3 billion to $5 billion alongside BCH, AVAX, SHIB, UNI, and LINK.