Buffing Reversals

I’m afraid that my first day of bidding real USD has not gone all terribly well. I’ve been working at small margins, and - candidly - probably overthinking the market trends, especially in the - so it seems to me - the moody (?) patterns of EURUSDi and oscillating periodic patterns of the USDCADi markets.

I was following a Commodity Dollar market, this morning, when I noticed what seems to be a certain reversals pattern, taking form. I placed a series of two bids, as illustrated in the following:

Chart created with MetaTrader4

I’m afraid that even my first two, small bids had exited on exhaustion of margin, before realizing any profit. Thus, I remark of it as the cost of a learning experience - candidly, it’s still cheaper than college.

I’d placed the first bid a little bit late in the oscillating period, hoping to net some profit as - so I’d thought - the market rate might continue to trend downwards. On noticing the market rate trending upwards instead, I placed another small bid at a point near the top of the peak, but at the real-time market rate at that instant. Of course, it’s less than perfect … Those two bids then exhausted my available margin - at the going rate of the knowledge of it this morning. Ideally, bids placed with a broader available margin would’ve been able to continue with the trend for a little while longer.

I’ve placed a third, smaller bid now, at near one of the peaks of a reversal in the series - a sell bid, such that it realizes a profit as the market price would proceed geometrically downwards, likewise when the market rate is proceeding to a numerically lesser market rate.

Not trying to milk it for all the Kiwi feathers on the hill, I’ve set a take-profit limit for this third bid, setting it at near to what was the first bid’s order-entry price - thus, ideally, to net a profit on the bid, before it reverses again.

Earlier this morning, the NZDUSDi market had been - on average - drifting downwards as so. I don’t know exactly what may’ve caused it to proceed along this new oscillating trend - I could be superstitious about it, but maybe I should look at the last week’s chart data for this day of the week, instead? Regardless, I think this may serve as an illustration towards how to bid the reversals - in an ideal market and on an ideal margin.

My third bid has now closed out well - the market rate exiting the spread of the bid, at the bottom of the bid’s SL/TP area, i.e at the take-profit rate I’d set for this ‘sell bid’. The market rate seems to be bouncing around the area of another possible reversal, thus I’ll be holding of on bidding to that market. I’ve cleared the illustrative graph information back off of my own view of the rate chart, and will try to see where the market rate goes next.

Updated: On further review of my first two ‘loss’ bids, it seems to me that this morning’s trend of the downward-trending market rate was basically a short-term reversal of an upward trend, as may be interpolated in a broader view of the same market data. At a 5M data-tick rate, then in panning the graph view out, the longer trend may seem apparent then. I imagine that it may result in such unexpected results, if I’d bid such a short-term reversal trend and not expect it to time-out by the start of the market’s active period.

To illustrate: the area displayed in the previous chart is also annotated in the following chart

Chart created with MetaTrader 4 - Graphic annotated with Skitch (software at EOL)

I woudn’t wish to estimate whether that market’s present reversal trend - since “That first tall peak”, broadly so - whether it may continue for any long duration.