GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies:
Taken Positions
GBP/USD: long at 1.4820, target 1.5000, stop-loss 1.4740, risk factor ***
USD/JPY: short at 119.40, target 117.50, stop-loss 120.40, risk factor ***
USD/CAD: short at 1.2650,target 1.2350, stop-loss 1.2790, risk factor ***
AUD/USD: long at 0.7660, target 0.7930, stop-loss 0.7540, risk factor ***
EUR/GBP: long at 0.7295, target 0.7450, stop-loss 0.7220, risk factor *
EUR/CHF: long at 1.0570, target 1.0990, stop-loss 1.0400, risk factor **
EUR/CAD: long at 1.3560, target 1.3900, stop-loss 1.3650, risk factor *
AUD/JPY: long at 92.00, target 94.50, stop-loss 91.00, risk factor ***
Pending Orders
EUR/USD: buy at 1.0650, target 1.1000, stop-loss 1.0540, risk factor **
Source: Growth Aces Forex Trading Strategies
EUR/USD: A Rise In Eurozone Inflation Did Not Help The EUR
(stop-loss reached, buy at 1.0650)
[ul]
[li] Eurozone CPI amounted to -0.1% yoy, in line with market expectations, compared to -0.3% yoy in February and -0.6% in January. As in previous months, the decline was mainly driven by a steep fall in the prices of energy, which was 5.8% cheaper in March than a year earlier. The bottoming out of price falls is likely to be welcome news for the European Central Bank, which wants to keep inflation below, but close to 2% over the medium term.
[/li][li] However, the ECB will look beyond the volatile components of price index. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile components of energy and unprocessed food costs, was 0.6% yoy, down from 0.7% yoy in February and the same as in January.
[/li][li] In another positive sign for the Eurozone economy, unemployment rate fell to 11.3% in February from an upwardly revised 11.4% in January, the lowest rate since May 2012.
[/li][li] German retail sales jumped by 3.6% yoy in real terms in February vs. a forecast for a 3.7% rise and 5.0% rise in January.
[/li][li] Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appealed for an honest compromise with lenders but warned Greece would not agree to an unconditional one. The comments came after Greece’s biggest creditor Germany said the euro zone would give Athens no further aid until it has a more detailed list of reforms and some are enacted into law, adding to scepticism over plans presented last week. Greek and other Eurozone officials from the Euro Working Group are due to discuss the reforms at 15:00 GMT on April 1. A Greek finance ministry official said the list included a lowered target of EUR 1.5 billion in proceeds from asset sales this year and a proposal to set up a bad bank with bailout funds returned to the euro zone in February. Among the scheduled asset sales is a stake in the country’s biggest port, Piraeus, in which China has expressed interest. The list also estimates Greece can raise EUR 3.7 billion this year through audits of bank transfers abroad, TV licence and e-gaming tenders, a value-added-tax lottery scheme, a crackdown on smuggling and the settlement of arrears owed to the state.
[/li][li] The EUR continued to fall against the USD on Tuesday. Our long position reached the stop-loss level at 1.0780. Todays rise in Eurozone inflation did not help the EUR. Investors are waiting now for Fridays U.S. non-farm payrolls. Our forecast for U.S. jobs numbers (230k) is slightly weaker than the median forecast (244k), which may trigger EUR recovery.
[/li][li] We are hunting for lower levels to get long again. The EUR/USD broke below the short-term trendline and the nearest support is at 1.0650 daily low on March 20. We placed a buy offer at this level.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.0900 (high Mar 30), 1.0949 (high Mar 27), 1.1052 (high Mar 26)
Support: 1.0651 (low Mar 20), 1.0618 (low Mar 19), 1.0600 (psychological level)
GBP/USD Supported By Good Britains GDP Data
(long for 1.5000)
[ul]
[li] Britains GDP in the fourth quarter 2014 grew by 0.6% qoq and 3.0% yoy, compared with 0.5% qoq in a previous reading. GDP grew in the third quarter by 2.8% yoy.
[/li][li] The Office for National Statistics said the biggest contribution to quarterly growth in the last three months of 2014 came from trade which added 0.9 pp. - a sharp swing from the 0.5 pp. drag in the third quarter.
[/li][li] Household spending, the main driver of Britain’s economic recovery, added 0.4 percentage points to growth in the quarter, slowing slightly from the third. Real household disposable income increased 2.3% yoy, the fastest rate of annual growth since the start of 2010, helped by a pickup in wages and a sharp fall in inflation as global oil prices tumbled.
[/li][li] The contribution of gross fixed capital formation was negative at amounted to -0.1% percentage point.
[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li] The GBP is weakening against the USD despite good Britains GDP data. However, the GBP appreciated against the EUR after the release and the EUR/GBP fell to a low of 0.7256.
[/li][li] The GBP is still under pressure of political uncertainty. Britain holds a parliamentary election on May 7 and the latest opinion polls point to a hung parliament in which no single party can form a government on its own.
[/li][li] A broad USD strength poses a risk to our long GBP/USD position. However, we stay long. The target is likely to be achieved in case of weaker U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday.
[/li][/ul]
Significant technical analysis’ levels:
Resistance: 1.4817 (hourly high Mar 31), 1.4901 (high Mar 30), 1.4923 (high Mar 27)
Support: 1.4752 (low Mar 30), 1.4722 (low Mar 20), 1.4689 (low Mar 19)