This is an objective D1 strategy I’m using on the Nasdaq100. I’ll post regular updates through 2025. In early trading it seems to have a win rate of about 80%, r:r about 1:0.5, and a trade fequency about 23 per month.
It’s embarassingly simple -
at the close, set a buy order at the day’s high and a sell order at the day’s low: the stop-loss of the long is at the day’s low, the SL for the short is at the day’s high
if an order is triggered, close this trade at the first profitable close
untriggered orders remain pending
repeat the process at the next close
The current situation is, as of early on 26/12 -
1 open long, from the high of 24/12
3 pending buy orders at the highs of 16/12, 17/12 and 18/12
1 pending sell order at the low of 24/12
but also multiple sell signals at the lows of 20/12, 23/12 and earlier lower daily lows going way back in time, awaiting sell orders if price goes south
I’m hoping this continues to work well, but also that we all have a Happy New Year!
I don’t think I could trade futures on the daily chart without having deep pockets like the institutions, but this is worth investigating further to be used as directional bias.
26/12 - Market Close update -
Index closed below high of 24/12 so long position still running
Existing orders still pending
Added new buy order and new sell order based on 26/12 range
Long from H 24/12 stopped out 27/12 = -240pts
Short from 24/12 triggered, closed manually 27/12 = +86pts
Short from 26/12 triggered, closed manually 27/12 = +172pts
Strategy’s total gain = +18pts
New buy order at H 27/12
New sell order at L 27/12
Its interesting to use the daily highs and lows as reference points for the entries and stop losses. I will be on the lookout on your updates through 2025! Happy new year!
Short from 23/12 triggered and closed manually 27/12 = +95pts
Short from 27/12 triggered and closed manually 27/12 = +27pts
Strategy’s total gain = +140pts
New buy order at H 30/12
New sell order at L 30/12
I just notice that small candles and inside range days can be higher risk where the the high and low can be taken out. I think you said you take everything, have you encountered this yet?
I just see on SP500 31/12/24 (which is not what this thread is about) the high and low were taken out for double the risk today
Is this something you have factored into this system? It probably doesn’t happen very often anyway
Thanks for sharing the system, and I am going to forward demo also
Yes it’s a real issue and especially at this time of year when trading volumes are thin and hours are restricted, so we get strings of narrow range days. However, the benefits are that stop-losses on individual trades are therefore as tight as they can be during any year, while a constrained consolidation range from a series of such narrow range days often promises a dramatic break-out. At this point I’m still for taking all signals.
I traded a couple of days on GBP/USD and did a few trades on the Dow and S&P. But the Nasdaq is more volatile.
I checked back over some charts from Jan-Nov 24 and found the following win rates -
Nasdaq100 = 82%
Dow Jones = 76%
S&P500 = 80%
GBP/USD = 80%
USD/JPY = 78%
AUD/NZD = 62%
Of course, win rate isn’t directly correlated with pips or points won/lost but it’s a guide. I always thought this would work best on a market with high historic volatility.
I am sure this would be a simple strategy for someone to automate for back-testing if anyone fancies a try.
