I have a question relating to Sell Buy and Stop loss. I just have a gut feeling that AUD/SGD will fall. On trial account put in order as will not have time when market opens in 5 hours or so. I had to put Sell price about 30 pips up from currant price to bring stop loss to around $4 and buy Price to make avround $8 profit. This is on 5000 AUD If I sell at currant price stop loss was around $8 I have just used round figures here. Would this be normal or do traders vary. Trader I am with charges spread only so I know I have about 9 or 10 pips dissadvantage. Any help guidance etc would be much appreciated. Thank you.
I manualy bought when had time on above position. Just closed for a very nice profit of $8.82 I got lucky on my gut feelings again.
Gut feeling might be might be right but on the face of it it can’t be quantified and has no rational basis.
However, maybe your gut feeling was based on evidence you saw but have not elaborated: maybe evidence you only unconsciously weighted against other contrary evidence. Can you codify why you had the right feeling about this pair at this time, so that you could replicate the performance and maybe even enhance it? What were the factors that gave you the gut feeling?
I looked at every time chart 1 minuite to 1 week. Every 1 graph was going up and on a twelve month high. Could not see it staying up there for ever. Dont know if this qualifies it or not. Or would I have been as well to try and pick the winer of Melbourne Cup. No that was a joke but my point was I gambling.? Thank you for reply John.
The way to tell is to do (on a demo account) a few hundred trades “just like that”, and see whether you clearly win more from the winning trades than you lose from the losing trades, or [I]vice versa[/I].
Anything other than that is going to be only a [I]guess[/I], by comparison.
(My own [I]guess[/I], admittedly on very little information, is that it will turn out to be “too discretionary” and the losses will come to more than the wins - but of course I might be wrong, and so might any other [I]guesses[/I]! 
)
It was gambling John.
Looking at a price that’s at a 12mth high it is also very likely to be at a monthly high and a weekly, and a daily and so on down to m1. So what seems like corroborative evidence from multiple witnesses is actually just the same single piece of evidence but “photocopied”.
Winning on a short from a high like that can dramatically boost your account. Vendors often show trades from reversal points to demonstrate how great their system is and how much money we could make of we bought it. Many advisors promote the idea that to beat the market is the only way to gain money and for that you have to sell before the market does.
“Beating” the market is the wrong perception. Trading reversals must account for a vast percentage of the traders who get wiped out per year: many of them will have been right, but being caught in a counter-trend price move will drain your account quickly to the point where there is no way to come back.
High prices can always go higher, while a dramatic price rise is not more likely to be followed by a dramatic price fall. A pull-back from a high after an uptrend is not a reversal until its a downtrend, and then, know what? - price can always go lower, while a dramatic price fall is not more likely to be followed by a dramatic price rise.
John, it was gambling.