GBPJPY
GBPCHF
GBPAUD
Commentary – Two weeks ago (didn’t publish last week due to the holiday), we wrote that “the GBPJPY structure from 251.10 is part of a big correction. We know this because of all the 3 wave movements. One possibility is that we are in a big A-B-C and that wave C is underway now. Wave C would equal A at 209.56 but coming under 219.30 satisfies minimum expectations.” This remains our ‘larger’ favored count. Near term, it appears that wave i of C is complete at 221.27 and that a corrective wave ii is underway now. Expect resistance near the 61.8% of 241.35-221.27 at 233.68 as well as the 11/14 high at 232.38.
Strategy – Get bearish near 232.38/233.68, against 241.35, target 210.00
Commentary – We wrote two weeks ago that “wave 3 (iii) of C is likely close to complete and wave iv (a correction) should unfold soon and bring price back close to 2.3397 before a new low is made in wave 5. We expect wave 5 to end near 2.2650, which is the center of the large triangle from 2006.” This remains our working assumption as wave iii did end at 2.2602. Expect wave iv to end near 2.3398 (50% of wave iii and 11/14 high). A new low should follow in the coming week(s).
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – Recent commentary mentioned that “a larger more complex correction could also be in the works. In this case, price is likely to test the 61.8% at 2.4316.” The GBPAUD failed to test the 61.8% but did come a few pips shy of the 50% at 2.3910. As such, a larger wave 2 correction may be complete at 2.3887. A cautious bearish bias is warranted against 2.3887. A break below 2.3300 instills confidence in the bearish bias.
Strategy – Sell break of 2.3300, against 2.3887, target TBD