Commentary - We wrote last week that wave c towards at least 238.95 may be underway now. It is also possible that a triangle is unfolding from 235.50 but this pattern is still near term bullish as a pullback would likely occur before a terminal thrust towards 238.95 completes the correction from 219.30. The pattern is clear now and it appears that a triangle is complete as wave B within the A-B-C correction from 219.30. Bolstering the bullish bias is the appearance of waves i and ii within wave C. The rally should accelerate in wave iii by either the end of this week or early next week. Risk is 227.40 and the bullish objective is 238.95.
Strategy - Bullish now, against 227.40, target 238.95
Commentary - The GBPCHF downtrend is underway. The decline from 2.4426 is in 5 waves and is most likely wave 1 of larger wave 3 down. Look for a bounce to at least the former 4th wave of 2.3822 for a chance to get bearish (or add to the position if already bearish). The line drawn off of the 7/25 and 9/4 highs is potential resistance as well. Ultimately, the bearish objective is the 161.8% ext of 2.4963-2.3758/2.4426 at 2.2477
Strategy - Short term traders, exit short position and look to return near 2.3822?.Longer term traders, remain bearish against 2.4426, bearish objective is 2.2477
Commentary - Last week, we wrote that the GBPAUD structure is not especially clear so we are taking a look at the weekly. The August high at 2.5638 pierced a trendline drawn off of the September 2001 and August 2002 highs and the monthly shows the break of an 18 year trendline. This evidence favors the downside longer term. It appears as though the GBPAUD may be ready to fall off of a cliff, eventually working towards 2.0000. Near term resistance is at 2.3450.
Strategy - Long term trade idea?bearish against 2.4814, target much lower (2.0000 and below)