Cable Gains Kiss 100-Day SMA and Reverse (Daily Classical)

Euro putting in outside day; still unclear whether bullish or bearish. Dollar/Yen gains seen extending back towards 2009 highs. Cable reverses after kissing 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss consolidates above 200-Day SMA. Dollar/Cad set for close below 100-Day SMA. Australian Dollar looking to test key 78.6% Fib Retrace. New Zealand Dollar breaks above 0.5700 but lacks follow through.

[B]EUR/USD

[/B] EUR/USD – With the daily studies looking stretched the market could be looking to rollover into Tuesday. A bearish outside day on Monday (contingent on close below 1.3580) would increase the likelihood for a pullback with a break back below 1.3490 ultimately required to confirm. Back above 1.3740 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.3890

                                                                       R3

                                                                       200-Day SMA

                                                                                                                 1.3800

                                                                       R2

                                                                       1/8 high

                                                                                                                 1.3740

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       3/19 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.3490

                                                                       S1

                                                                       3/23 low

                                                                                                                 1.3415

                                                                       S2

                                                                       3/19 low

                                                                                                                 1.3390

                                                                       S3

                                                                       1/19 high

[B]USD/JPY

[/B] USD/JPY – Continues to extend gains into Monday after being very well supported ahead of the 50/100-Day SMAs last Thursday. Daily studies show plenty of room to run and we favor additional upside over the coming days back towards and through the recent 2009 trend highs at 99.70. Only below 95.00 gives reason for concern. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 98.50

                                                                       R3

                                                                       3/12 high

                                                                                                                 98.00

                                                                       R2

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 97.60

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       20-Day SMA

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 95.45

                                                                       S1

                                                                       3/23 low

                                                                                                                 94.15

                                                                       S2

                                                                       3/20 low

                                                                                                                 93.55

                                                                       S3

                                                                       3/19 low 

[B]GBP/USD

[/B] GBP/USD – The recent corrective rally looks to be losing momentum with the pair stalling by key topside resistance at the 100-Day SMA on Monday. The pair has not been above the moving average since August 2008 and the overall structure remains grossly bearish while below. Look for a break back below 1.4395 (Friday’s low) to confirm bear trend resumption. A close above the 100-Day will however negate. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.4750

                                                                       R3

                                                                       Mid-Figure

                                                                                                                 1.4700

                                                                       R2

                                                                       78.6% Fib

                                                                                                                 1.4650

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       3/19 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.4395

                                                                       S1

                                                                       3/20 low

                                                                                                                 1.4305

                                                                       S2

                                                                       3/6 high

                                                                                                                 1.4160

                                                                       S3

                                                                       3/19 low

[B]USD/CHF

[/B]

         [B]USD/CHF [/B][B]– [/B]The pair has found some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1200). Look for a rebound from current sub-1.1500 levels back into the familiar range over the coming days. Below 1.1165 negates. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B]

         

         

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.1500

                                                                       R3

                                                                       Psychological

                                                                                                                 1.1460

                                                                       R2

                                                                       3/19 high

                                                                                                                 1.1345

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       3/23 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.1200

                                                                       S1

                                                                       200-Day SMA

                                                                                                                 1.1165

                                                                       S2

                                                                       3/19 low/50% fib

                                                                                                                 1.1110

                                                                       S3

                                                                       1/16 low

[B]USD/CAD

[/B] USD/CAD – Despite the recent decline, the overall structure remains quite constructive with the current pullback still classed as corrective. Setbacks have broken down through the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 low-highs but are now struggling to establish below. We are looking for a medium-term higher low by current levels and above 1.2025 (28Jan low) ahead of the next upside extension beyond 1.3065. A close below the 100-Day SMA on Monday is somewhat concerning and we prefer to stay on the sidelines. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.2505

                                                                       R3

                                                                       3/19 low

                                                                                                                 1.2450

                                                                       R2

                                                                       3/20 high

                                                                                                                 1.2415

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       3/23 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.2265

                                                                       S1

                                                                       61.8% fib

                                                                                                                 1.2190

                                                                       S2

                                                                       3/19 low

                                                                                                                 1.2130

                                                                       S3

                                                                       2/9 low

[B]AUD/USD

[/B] AUD/USD – The strong multi-day up-move from 0.6310 back on March 10 continues into Monday with the price easily exceeding the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 2009 high-lows and now approaching the key 78.6% fib retrace by 0.7050. daily studies are overbought and the risks are for a reversal over the coming days. A close above 0.7050 will however directly expose a retest of the 2009 highs at 0.7270. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.7145

                                                                       R3

                                                                       1/8 high

                                                                                                                 0.7100

                                                                       R2

                                                                       Figure Resistance

                                                                                                                 0.7050

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       78.6% Fib

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.6930

                                                                       S1

                                                                       3/20 high

                                                                                                                 0.6865

                                                                       S2

                                                                       3/23 low

                                                                                                                 0.6845

                                                                       S3

                                                                       3/20 low

[B]NZD/USD

[/B] NZD/USD – While the latest upside moves have been most impressive, they are still classed as corrective and leave the pair now highly overextended with both the daily stochs and RSI residing in overbought territory. As such, moves above 0.5700 are viewed as an attractive opportunity to establish a playable reversal. It is also worth noting that in cross related price action, Aud/Nzd is quite stretched (oversold) and could be looking to carve out a medium-term higher low by current levels. The overall structure is bullish on the cross and any upside in Aud/Kiwi from here should ultimately weigh on Nzd/Usd. Strategy: SELL @0.5720 FOR A 0.5400 OBJECTIVE, STOP @0.5820. Trade recommendation expires on Monday at 5pm EDT if not triggered.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.5800

                                                                       R3

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 0.5785

                                                                       R2

                                                                       78.6% Fib

                                                                                                                 0.5760

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       1/13 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.5630

                                                                       S1

                                                                       3/20 high

                                                                                                                 0.5580

                                                                       S2

                                                                       3/23 low

                                                                                                                 0.5500

                                                                       S3

                                                                       Figure

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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