• Euro reverse sharply intraday; short triggers at 1.3965
• Dollar/Yen stuck in tight inside day range
• Cable eyes test of psychological barriers at 1.6000
• Dollar/Swiss rallies fail to sustain; threatens hopes for recovery
[B]EUR/USD –[/B] With the daily RSI rolling over from overbought, the risks from here are for a material pullback over the coming days. However, Tuesday’s jackknife reversal off of the lows is concerning and we will need to see a break back below 1.3860 to get things once again moving back to the downside. Back above 1.4050-60 negates and exposes the 1.4100-50 area. [B]Position: SHORT @1.3965 FOR A 1.3740 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.4065. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back below 1.3915. If 1.3915 not broken, position to be closed out at NY close (5pm NY time) on Tuesday. [/B] [B]Level[/B] [B]Resistance[/B] [B]Details[/B] 1.4150 R3 12/31 high 1.4060 R2 1/2 09 high 1.4050 R1 5/22 high [B]Level[/B] [B]Support[/B] [B]Details[/B] 1.3900 S1 Figure 1.3860 S2 5/26 low 1.3760 S3 10-Day SMA
[B]USD/JPY –[/B] The market had been well offered over the past several weeks but setbacks have now stalled out just shy of next key support by 93.55 from March, which guards against the critical 87.15 multi-year trend lows. Friday’s bullish close was followed by some upside on Monday to break a sequence of consecutive daily lower highs and lower lows. This could now suggest that an interim base is in place by 93.85 ahead of a bounce back towards 96.70 over the coming days. Below 93.85 negates. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B] [B]Resistance[/B] [B]Details[/B] 96.70 R3 5/19 high 96.25 R2 5/20 high 95.25 R1 5/25 high [B]Level[/B] [B]Support[/B] [B]Details[/B] 94.40 S1 5/25 low 93.85 S2 5/22 low 93.55 S3 3/19 low [B]
[B]GBP/USD – [/B]Any pullbacks intraday have been met with some very strong buying and the market continues to ignore daily overbought readings in favor of a retest on critical psychological barriers by 1.6000. Tuesday’s price action initially looked quite bearish after breaking down to take out the previous daily low and end a sequence of 5 consecutive daily higher lows. However, the sharp rebound into the afternoon quickly dashed any hopes for a more significant retreat in favor of a push to fresh 2009 highs towards 1.6000. While we do anticipate a major pullback over the coming days, recent price action suggests that the time has not yet come for said correction. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B] [B]Resistance[/B] [B]Details[/B] 1.6110 R3 11/4 high 1.6030 R2 11/6 high 1.5970 R1 5/26 09 high [B]Level[/B] [B]Support[/B] [B]Details[/B] 1.5780 S1 5/26 low 1.5755 S2 5/22 low 1.5700 S3 Figure [B]
[B]USD/CHF[/B] – Has been unable to hold onto the substantial gains from Tuesday with the market sharply reversing back towards daily opening levels in the lower 1.0800’s. This keeps the bearish trend intact with only a break back above 1.0930 to now negate and open a more significant corrective rebound. A break below 1.0800 exposes the 2009 lows from early January at 1.0610. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B] [B]Resistance[/B] [B]Details[/B] 1.1130 R3 5/20 high 1.1055 R2 5/21 high 1.0930 R1 5/26 high [B]Level[/B] [B]Support[/B] [B]Details[/B] 1.0810 S1 5/22 low 1.0715 S2 78.6% fib 1.0610 S3 1/2 09 low
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org and you will be added to the “distribution” list.
Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
“Tech Talk” – A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
“Morning Slices” – Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes “Trade of the Day”).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
“Indicator of the Day” – A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
“Cross Country” – A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)
“Scandi Daily” – A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
“Daily Classical” – A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)