Adam Button of Forexlive is reporting reasonable chance of agreement to include first Mexico and then Canada.
The market has been looking for such an accord since the spat back a few weeks particularly now that the pressure between US and China increases.
Button is Canadian so may be close to the talk - just a heads up.
Where to CAD and NAFTA move?
Well USD CAD testing the mid June lows today.
No UK traders involved bank hol today, no confirmation of deal with Canada as yet, just Mexico - likely more talk for a week, then possibility of deal this week or early next week.
If it fails then some CAD selling, the chances weigh on success, I see mention of Canada in Pres Trump’s tweets so he has that in mind.
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Edit: the heads up worth 60 pips so far, will be interesting where this will play out, latest is that Canada may be sidelined, lots to play for.
USD/CAD Testing 1.2950 Support after US-Mexico Trade Agreement
by Matt Weller
With UK traders out on holiday and markets generally slow as traders try to soak up the last of the summer sun, today’s trade has been all about…well, trade.
This morning, representatives from the United States and Mexico announced that they had reached a new bilateral trade agreement to replace NAFTA. At a high level, the deal requires that 75% of automobile contents come from the two countries (up from 62.5% previously), with 40-45% of the labor used to create automobiles earning at least $16/hour. In addition, the two countries were able to refine the rules around textile trade and protection for biological drugs. Crucially, the US was forced to drop its demand for a “sunset clause”; instead, the trade agreement will be reviewed every six years.
Of course, the big question now is what this deal means for Canada, the other previous member of NAFTA. Reading the headlines, it seems as if Mexico is eager to integrate Canada into the agreement as soon as possible, whereas the Trump Administration appears more reticent, perhaps as part of a negotiating stance to wrest more concessions out of the US’s Northern neighbor.
In any event, FX traders are viewing the progress as an optimistic sign for both the peso and the loonie. Technically speaking, USD/CAD is trading lower by nearly 0.5% to test a key support level around 1.2950. In addition to being the 2-month low for the pair, this area also represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire February-July rally.
The pair remains within a near-term bearish channel and has just broken below the trend line connecting its prominent lows in February and April, suggesting that the bears have the upper hand for now. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is in a bearish trend of its own, showing that the longer-term bullish momentum is turning more bearish.
Looking ahead, a confirmed break of support in the 1.2950 could expose the 50% Fibonacci retracement just above 1.2800 next, whereas a bullish reversal here could hint at a bounce back to the top of the channel near 1.3100 later this week. Obviously, traders will be keeping a close eye on Canada’s progress negotiating a trade deal in the coming days, but if today’s breakthrough is a harbinger of things to come, USD/CAD could have further to fall from here.
Chart source: TradingView and FOREX.com
The heads up was before this week started, went from 1.3020 down to 1.2900 first 3 days.
The DD was around 50 on the first day. thereafter it was all buy CAD, until the last two days of the week.
That’s the second part of the edit coming into play I suppose.
Lesson is to take the profit when it’s offered 
Edit: some spiking on USD/CAD in the past hour, press conference now due, chances are negative CAD, the play will be on Mon and Tue, lets see.