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CAD oil comes from expensive sources like shale, and the break-even production cost I�ve read is nearly $80/bbl. They won�t be able to compete with the lower cost producers. In addition, Obama�s LCFS policy will make tar sands oil unsaleable in the US. Lastly- a loss of $200B in planned Alberta energy investments will destroy more jobs.
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Other exports
a) Ontario auto parts is 18% of all CAD exports. That�s probably not doing so well
b) BC wood products. with the housing boom over, demand is way off -
For the first time in over 20 years, their gov will be running a deficit. up until now, CAD has been a dual surplus (budget balance and current acct balance) country. it might very well become (albeit slightly) a dual deficit country.
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Unemployment now at a 4 year high- 7.2%
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lastly, compared to the other comdoll, AUD, CAD has much higher unemployment (7.2% vs 4.5%), and much lower GDP growth (0.5% vs 1.9%) and much lower central bank rate (1% vs 3.25%). so in the event of a resurgence in risk, CAD should not recover as fast or far as AUD