I have noticed what a huge demographic of traders are here.
Young, old, new, veteran, scalpers, long term, price action, systems, hedge, SL the list goes on.
What if we joined forces…
What if you had instant contact to fellow traders and there were 5 of you whom all traded the same hours, use different systems, gut instinct, price action etc
What if the 5 of you all scouted and only entered a short term trade if all 5 agreed.
Would this not increase your chances of your trade going your way?
Lets say 5 losers joined forces, they each ran at 30% win rate.
My maths is terrible but if they all agreed on one trade wouldn’t that mean a 150 % win rate? Because if one disagreed to enter, no one enters.
I would LOVE to demo this with a small team if anyone is interested.
Someone please explain better if you understand the concept.
If they have a 30% win rate I would do the opposite lol. [B][I]Especially[/I][/B] when they agreed.
Most people lose in fx. Grouping up losers will not help. There are terms for losing traders in my world like “sheep” and “the herd”. This takes it to another level.
Do you not think that you are capable of becoming profitable by yourself?
[QUOTE=“petefader;628871”] If they have a 30% win rate I would do the opposite lol. Especially when they agreed. Most people lose in fx. Grouping up losers will not help. There are terms for losing traders in my world like “sheep” and “the herd”. This takes it to another level. Do you not think that you are capable of becoming profitable by yourself?[/QUOTE]
Well 30% win rate could be a good thing if your wins heavily out weighed your losses,
What im looking at is surely 5 heads are better then 1 - especially when they all agree
This basically what occurs in the main price action threads. Someone posts a trade setup, everyone jumps in and agrees, they all say they are taking the trade, a few hours later everything gets really quiet as the trade hits the stop loss and everyone acts like it didn’t happen and start discussing a new setup. Looking to others for specific trade entries and exits leads to impulsive trades that you regret when they are in draw down and you don’t have enough confidence in the trade to see it out to the end.
Yup. And there’s zero accountability. Nobody wants to step up and admit they were wrong. Someone reading through the threads will think it works great, when in reality it doesn’t.
That being said, there are several profitable systems available for free in the “Free Trading Systems” forum. They aren’t the best systems in the world but hey… most people who spend hundreds of hours creating their own system are pretty hesistant to give it away for free.
To the OP, focus on trading longer time frame charts. Scalping is for the most part a sucker’s game if you’re a retail trader. Find a trend on the Daily or Weekly charts and ride it out… It’s essentially free money.
The thing you are talking about is signal confluence and the maths doesn’t work like you think it does. The assumption if you have a 30 chance of a win is that there is a 70% chance of a loss. So if you take it when 5 people agree then you have a 0.7^5 = 17% chance of loss. So on the face of it you would get an 83% win rate by combining 5 signals with a 30% success rate.
There are two main issues with this calculation however. It assumes that there is 0 correlation between signals. Which normally there isn’t. It also assumes non continuous time. A trade is a combination of a direction and a price. when you have all signals firing at the same time its unlikely that you will be able to get the right price as you will be late into the trade.
There are other issue which I cant be bothered to list. In short what I am trying to get across is that the additivity of signals is not a correct assumption to make.
[QUOTE=“pipwhip;628919”] The thing you are talking about is signal confluence and the maths doesn’t work like you think it does. The assumption if you have a 30 chance of a win is that there is a 70% chance of a loss. So if you take it when 5 people agree then you have a 0.7^5 = 17% chance of loss. So on the face of it you would get an 83% win rate by combining 5 signals with a 30% success rate. There are two main issues with this calculation however. It assumes that there is 0 correlation between signals. Which normally there isn’t. It also assumes non continuous time. A trade is a combination of a direction and a price. when you have all signals firing at the same time its unlikely that you will be able to get the right price as you will be late into the trade. There are other issue which I cant be bothered to list. In short what I am trying to get across is that the additivity of signals is not a correct assumption to make.[/QUOTE]
Thanks mate, i knew my maths was off, just waiting for someone to correct
I understand what you means in terms of correlation, however, im sure that there is traders out there that use completely different signals,
Hell, even a pure fundamental trader with a win of 60% teaming up with a pure technical trader with a win of 60% would mean .4^2 = 16% losing as opposed to 40%…
Sure you wouldn’t make nearly as many trades but you could risk more pure trade.
I personally trade fundamental , technical and a few indicators. It would be nice to team up with price action / systems etc, but ideally this would work with traders that are set on just one method.
Trading would have to be religious, say if the meet was GMT 12:00 - 16:00 then all trades would be exited by close.
[QUOTE=“jadd806;628912”] Yup. And there’s zero accountability. Nobody wants to step up and admit they were wrong. Someone reading through the threads will think it works great, when in reality it doesn’t. That being said, there are several profitable systems available for free in the “Free Trading Systems” forum. They aren’t the best systems in the world but hey… most people who spend hundreds of hours creating their own system are pretty hesistant to give it away for free. To the OP, focus on trading longer time frame charts. Scalping is for the most part a sucker’s game if you’re a retail trader. Find a trend on the Daily or Weekly charts and ride it out… It’s essentially free money.[/QUOTE]
Thanks for the post mate,
What if it was not done on forums? What if it was done via a online chat service and names were anonymous
Trader1
Trader2
Trader3
Trader4
The four traders ONLY enter when they all agree on a short term trade ie 2-4 hours within trading session.
I guess what this is about is i see so much potential here but very rarely someone that has “it all”
Price action is a different story i understand they all agree and enter but they are all using price action method. You would need a team of super diverse traders. And for it to work you would need to disagree on more trades then what you agree on.
Ok, so what happened? Your’e giving up on yourself? Come on dude. You don’t need this hair brain scheme. Don’t take the long way around…or worse never get there.
Learn about the workings of the market. Learn all you can. Practice and be independent for life. Rely on nobody but yourself. Just my opinion of course.
What happened when they all didn’t agree (in which I am most certainly sure it will happen more often ) and then what? Trading 2-4 hrs in a day doesn’t work either because the point of entry/ exit of trade/s it varies. We don’t clock in or clock out all the same time like in a regular jobs. Also, some will hold trade(s) more than a day or even weeks. Unless, you are looking for scalpers, it may work but still… I don’t know man that’s tough… That’s why you trade at your own because your objective/goals on every trade is different of what others have in mind.
I mean sure, go for it. No skin off anyone elses back.
Put a bunch of losing traders in a room, even with signal confluence you’re probably still just going to have a bunch of losing traders.
The thing is, no profitable trader is going to be interested… Once you have an edge and enough capital you’ve essentially got free money from the market.
Trading isn’t hard. Some people get it from the beginning, others take a while and have an “aha” moment, but the majority of the people who stumble into this Forex thing stumble out a few months later, many dollars poorer and claiming “the market can’t be beaten.”
I’ve always felt that those who try to beat the market (whatever that really means) are usually the ones who get chewed up and spit out. Personally, I respect the beast that it is, and rather than try to work against it, learn to live in unison with neutrality towards it.
[QUOTE=“petefader;628978”]Ok, so what happened? Your’e giving up on yourself? Come on dude. You don’t need this hair brain scheme. Don’t take the long way around…or worse never get there. Learn about the workings of the market. Learn all you can. Practice and be independent for life. Rely on nobody but yourself. Just my opinion of course. :)[/QUOTE]
Thanks mate, all you say is true.
I just HATE trading demo and getting pumped up to get back in the market place J