I have been trading live on/off for about a year now.
During this time I have done about 60 trades with win ratio of 65%. My account is currently up by 20%. My account was up by 40% but the past few months my winning trades are decreasing and my losing trades are increasing.
I have spent time to figure out if there is something I change but anything I change does not seem to make any difference.
At the moment I feel that any success I have had so far has been beginners luck which is fast running out. I am probably not on my own that feels like.
The question I have is how may trades do I need to take before I can conclude that if any success I have is down to the hard work and time I have put in or has it been all luck.
Well, the first thing I would say is that if you keep changing your methodology/system then you can’t get a good read on anything. Back-testing may help you in that regard.
Aside from that, the number of trades you need to guage the performance of a system really depends on your trading timeframe.
No thats absolutely not a problem. Trading the 15m chart if you can be in front of the monitors during the whole trade is perhaps one of the best time charts. Basing your trades on the longer time charts is also a sound approach.
So we need to take a closer look at how and why your placing trades. What indicators are you using, if any. Perhaps we might start from there?
The only indicator I use is slow stochastic with setting 8-3-3. I base my entry on reversal candlestick patterns which form around support and resistance lines or fib retracement levels. When I see a setup occuring i will wait for the stochastic to cross over or hook around in the direction of the intended trade before I enter.
Well you’ve obviously done your homework as basing your trades around S/R is a good approach. I’m not a fan of Stohastics but of the two, in my opinion the slow is a better indicator.
So from what you’ve described it seems your entering a trade on or around a S/R level. But price tests it and continues on through stopping you out? So might there be a way of second guessing if price is going to hold or carry on?
Try putting up a 20 period 2Std dev bollinger band. When price steps outside the bollinger upper or lower band and wicks its usually a good indication of overbought/ sold especially if this coincides with significant S/R.
As I have never used bollinger bands I don’t know how I would use them in my trading. What would you recommend be good starting point to understand how bollinger bands work?
I ran into a new website created by John Bollinger that is strictly for forex utilizing Bollinger Bands: bbforex.com. There is a set of rules regarding use of the bands–I always thought that a tag of the top band was a sell signal, but he says not necessarily…his point being that prices can and do walk up and down the bands. The rules are worth looking at.
Your absolutely right. When price is trending up say, its a dangerous move to place a short just because price wicks outside a 5m chart bollinger. Price can and does climb the wall of a bollinger band when price is trending. But when price is ranging like today on the GU. You could have placed around five solid 10 -20 pip trades using the above method.
It depends on what you want to see. If you are going to trade futures, its better to use a 1 day chart to get a better view of the pair�s volatility, if you are an intraday trader, probably you�ll be ok with 1h chart, I thin 5min is ok for scalpers, because it is too much detail for a whole day order�
