Can Trading Work for Mere Mortals? I'm About to Find Out. Follow Me

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
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Originally posted in the Newbie forum but it turned into an advice centre! I appreciate it but I would like to simply update newcomers as to whether a normal person can make money on forex with a successful backtested system.

OK, after 2 years of paper trading and painstaking data entry consisting of 13 years of back data for 12 separate currency pairs, I decided to take the plunge 3 weeks ago!

System is completely mechanical and putting aside the odd anomaly where wntry signal coincides with news events, I do not trade the news, and I utterly ignore fundamentals.

Trade 4 hourly time frame ALONE. Trading between 0800 and 0000 GMT. (Thereby ignoring 0400 signals… I do need to sleep)

I am very unsure as to whether the whole thing is a con, if I am honest. I say this because my paper trading is absurd:

Success Rate over 13 years of back data: 70% (69.7%)
Success Rate over 1 year of paper trading: 73% (72.6%)
Risk Reward Ratio (re: 1’356 Trades): 0.77:1 (This is an average, my system consists of trailing stops).
Expectancy Value: 0.25
Trades per Week: 3.5

If it was this easy, why isn’t everybody doing it? Anyway, I am about to find out using 3% of equity per trade.

First things first. I am not entering into this venture believing I will be rich quick. Of the 13 years I have an equity trail for (via back testing), on 9 of those years, I am still bobbing around Break Even until month 6, even though compounding and the randomly distributed nature of returns always ensured I was in much profit by the end of the year. If I am at BE, 6 months in, this is a success as far as I am concerned.

I am posting it on here because I am sure others are in 2 minds as to whether to put their money on the line. If this works for me, it will work for anyone who undertakes the same due-dilligence and implements a purely mechanical system. If going live fails a purely mechanical system like this (one that bombs the demo)… stay away from it ha. I am your guinea pig.

I want people to get an insight into the kindo of emotions an inexperienced trader can go through, to either draw inspiration (or scorn) or at least reference from when you, yourself go live.

Wish me luck! I will be updating regularly.

GOD! I AM EXCITED.

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First Update

OK, so:

First Trade was a successful one but not to the degree I would have liked! I have left pips on the table, people, and for this I am annoyed with myself. I have allowed psychology to get in the way of the system and in doing so, have been left frustrated.

As you can see from the attachment, I have won £114 (net) but I pulled out before the trade continued on to what would have been an £880 profit F***** annoyed with myself. That said, the buzz is still amazing. It really is.

The AUDUSD went against me and I ended with £886 loss, which does not bother me in the slightest. Losses happen, I can absorb this loss and will not lose sleep over it. Returns are randomly distributed and I WILL be up sooner or later.

On Monday 28/7/2014

OK, so I am an idiot. That losing trade actually effected me more than I thought it did and even though I can absorb the loss I am STILL frightened about the market! In doing so I have ignored the GBPUSD and AUDUSD signal by looking for reasons not to enter outside the parameters of my system (I checked the D1 time frame) and both hit what would have been profit levels!!! SO GOD DAMN ANNOYED.

I have decided that it is just too early to put 3% on the line and have therefore entered into the EURUSD long with 2% instead.

I WILL NEVER AGAIN IGNORE A SIGNAL. EVER EVER EVER. I WILL STICK TO THE BLOODY SYSTEM. FOR F**** SAKE

I swear, I promised myself that psychology would play no part in this. I was wrong. It does, and now it is up to me to conquer it. This whole venture will bloody fail if I do not conquer it.

2% for the foreseeable.

Please find 2 attachments. First statement showing you the one win and one loss with trades currently open.

Second attachment is an account summary to date. £770 trading deficit. £687 down gross (Rollover included).

NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BETTER WEEK.

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[B]OK! UPDATE 3 IS HERE GUYS[/B]

[B]Week 2 is over[/B] and what a disaster missing those two trades were! As you know, I ignored my system entry signals and missed out on £1667. 2 more trades went against me, not due to user error thankfully and so I was £1400 down in the week before the first real successful trade! Heavy, bit depressing that due to my own stupidity (with the dismissal of those 2 entry signals) my experience has started with 4 consecutive losses but I can absorb the drawdown and will continue with renewed vigour next week.

This morning the GBPJPY came in for me!!

First big successful trade. £318 thank you very much, and the recovery begins… (please). I can’t tell you what a relief that is! It is only one trade I know, but every trade I had entered into hitherto this one had not seen price permeate the entry level, and the only 2 entry signals I had ignored both came in as profitable. Something I am still enraged by. This feels wonderful even if I am still at a loss and getting that monkey off my back feels great.

Started to enjoy the experience this week though, despite the losses (no really). Entering trades seems far more second nature and I am not even looking for reasons as to stay out of a trade unlike in the first week. My system tells me to enter and I am trusting it. Lets just hope that live trading yields same results as demo and back data.

Yes, drawdown is hard but ya know what… deal with it. Returns will regress back to the mean and I will, before too long - though longer than I would have liked - be back in the black. Indeed, had I have entered into the USDJPY and EURAUD I would be basically at BE (-£93, not -£1861). I am an idiot, that will never happen again.

I will keep updating!

[B]PROFIT[/B] - £1’867

https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/pacmanistan/989881

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Good luck, I will be following (:

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